In this episode, Investment Counsellor Stu Morrow and Institutional Portfolio Manager Kevin Minas examine the forces reshaping markets in the fourth quarter. From central banks navigating the shift toward policy normalization to equity leadership rotating beyond mega-cap AI stocks, they explore how a resilient but slowing economy is influencing investment decisions. The conversation covers evolving credit conditions, geopolitical developments including recent events in Venezuela, and the portfolio adjustments being made as valuations rise and late-cycle dynamics emerge.

Key highlights:

• Global growth is moderating, labour markets are softening, and inflation is easing, giving central banks room to shift from restrictive policy toward gradual normalization.

• Steeper yield curves and very tight credit spreads leave bond investors with decent starting yields but limited compensation for taking extra credit or liquidity risk—arguing against "reaching for yield."

• Equity leadership is broadening beyond a narrow group of U.S. megacap AI winners, with stronger participation from cyclicals, financials, and international markets—a healthier backdrop for diversified, active investors.

• The AI boom is increasingly about infrastructure—semiconductors, memory, power, and data centres—raising questions about sustainability, profitability, and bubblelike dynamics in parts of the ecosystem.

• Geopolitical shifts, including U.S. intervention in Venezuela and a move toward more transactional "spheres of influence," reinforce the case for disciplined, diversified, valuation driven positioning and only incremental asset mix adjustments.

Host:
Kevin Minas, CFA, MBA, CAIA
Institutional Portfolio Manager

Guest:
Stu Morrow, CFA
Investment Counsellor

This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts.

Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore.

Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com.

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From lingering "Liberation Day" tariff fears and a shift toward a more pro-growth federal policy stance to changing leadership within key sectors, Canadian equity portfolio manager Mark Rutherford unpacks what moved markets for Canadian equities in 2025. He explains how this backdrop influenced recent positioning in the Canadian equity portfolio, including adjustments within energy, banks, and gold. The conversation then turns to the U.S. intervention in Venezuela and its implications for Canadian oil: how potential increases in Venezuelan heavy crude could affect Western Canadian differentials, why integrated producers may be relatively better positioned, and the role of TMX export capacity in supporting basin pricing. Stepping back, Mark explores the move toward a more transactional, spheres of influence world and how the team is incorporating this evolving U.S.–Canada dynamic into portfolio construction through diversified, incremental shifts rather than binary macro bets.

Key Highlights:

• In 2025, Canadian equity returns were shaped less by the initial "Liberation Day" tariff shock and more by how markets digested that risk over time alongside a domestic pivot toward pro-growth policy—forces that helped support energy, commodities, and especially the banks.

• Within financials, Canadian banks—TD in particular—saw improving fundamentals as credit conditions held up, wealth and capital markets businesses performed well, and a more growth oriented regulatory stance supported competitiveness.

• In energy, the team tilted toward integrated producers like Suncor and trimmed more differential sensitive exposure such as Canadian Natural, balancing the long-term risk of higher Venezuelan heavy crude supply against the offsetting support of TMX export capacity.

• The team selectively added to gold producers, seeing attractive unit economics and reasonable valuations, and viewing gold as a useful diversifier in a world of geopolitical tension, dedollarization talk, and looser fiscal discipline.

• Stepping back, Mark frames Venezuela and trade policy within a broader shift toward transactional spheres of influence and "mercantilist" great power politics—arguing for diversified, incremental positioning changes rather than binary macro bets or anchoring portfolios to any single geopolitical outcome.

Host: Andrew Johnson, CFA Portfolio Manager

Guest: Mark Rutherford, CFA Equity Analyst

This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts.

Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore.

Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com.

Follow us on social:

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U.S. mid-cap equities are often overlooked, but beneath the headlines of consumer weakness and market volatility, there's a more nuanced story. Portfolio manager Jeff Mo shares a bottom-up perspective on resilient—though bifurcated—consumer spending, margin surprises, and a capital expenditure boom that extends beyond AI. The discussion explores how company fundamentals, competitive advantages, and valuation opportunities are shaping portfolio decisions, with insights into sectors like defense and industrials. Jeff also addresses the impact of macro trends on stock selection, the evolving CapEx landscape, and why mid-cap valuations may offer compelling long-term potential.

KEY HIGHLIGHTS:

• U.S. consumer spending remains resilient overall, though lower-income segments are showing more strain and deal-seeking behavior.
• Companies with strong competitive advantages continue to demonstrate pricing power and healthy margins, despite inflation and shifting cost pressures.
• The current CapEx boom is not limited to AI—reshoring, supply chain resilience, and manufacturing investments are driving activity across sectors.
• Market volatility in the mid-cap space has led to outsized stock reactions, creating opportunities for long-term, bottom-up investors.
• Defense and industrial companies, such as CACI International and ITT, are benefiting from innovation, management execution, and evolving end markets.
• Mid-cap valuations are reasonable relative to large-caps, with select areas appearing overlooked and offering attractive long-term return potential.
  
  

Host: Rob Campbell, CFA Portfolio Manager

Guest: Jeff Mo, CFA Portfolio Manager

Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore.

Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com. Follow us on social:

LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/

Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/

On this episode of The Art of Boring, Global Credit Portfolio Manager Brian Carney unpacks what he believes are some of the most pressing issues in credit markets today. He explores whether recent private market bankruptcies signal deeper systemic concerns, how to position for sovereign bond issuer risk in a sticky inflation world, and the impact of the AI-driven debt wave on credit spreads. He also discusses regulatory rollbacks in the lending markets, credit risk premium mispricings, and concrete portfolio actions for late cycle markets.

Key Highlights

• Recent private market bankruptcies may signal broader, systemic credit market weakness rather than isolated events, with deteriorating lending standards and rising delinquencies warranting caution.
• Growing sovereign debt and persistent inflation are challenging the traditional "safe haven" status of U.S. Treasuries, prompting a preference for shorter duration and higher-quality credit exposure.
• The surge in AI-driven capital expenditures is fueling a wave of debt issuance by large tech companies, likely putting upward pressure on credit spreads and shifting market dynamics in favour of lenders over time.
• Regulatory rollbacks in the U.S. are reducing transparency and increasing risk-taking, especially in unregulated and private markets, raising concerns about financial stability and corporate behaviour.
• Credit risk premiums remain compressed, with investors often inadequately compensated for lower-quality credit risk; opportunities are limited, and selectivity is critical.
• Defensive positioning—focusing on capital preservation, short duration, and high-quality issuers—remains key, with readiness to deploy capital quickly when market dislocations create attractive opportunities.

Host: Kevin Minas, CFA, Institutional Portfolio Manager

Guest: Brian Carney, CFA, Portfolio Manager This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts.

Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore.

Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com. Follow us on social:

LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/

Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/

In this episode, portfolio manager Peter Lampert discusses the evolving landscape of international equities, with a special focus on the portfolio's exposure to AI enablers—companies powering the semiconductor supply chain, from power supply units to memory makers. Lampert explains the importance of distinguishing between firms merely riding the AI investment wave and those whose competitive positions are fundamentally strengthening as a result. The conversation also explores attractive valuations outside the U.S., the growing role of Japanese companies amid governance reforms and IT modernization, and the need for careful risk management as AI adoption and global trends unfold. Lampert emphasizes a diversified, long-term approach—balancing AI-driven growth, sector-specific opportunities in Europe and Asia, and resilience against macro risks—to position the portfolio for sustainable value creation in a rapidly changing world.

Key highlights:

• How international equities are benefiting from AI infrastructure growth, focusing on companies enabling the semiconductor supply chain (e.g., power supply units, memory makers).

• The importance of distinguishing between firms temporarily boosted by AI demand and those with strengthening long-term competitive advantages.

• Attractive valuations and growth opportunities for AI enablers outside the U.S., particularly in Europe, Taiwan, and Korea.

• An examination of portfolio diversification, including exposure to Japanese companies amid governance reforms and IT modernization.

• Risk management in balancing AI exposure with other portfolio drivers and the need for resilience as adoption and global trends evolve.

• The ongoing debate around incumbent software companies' ability to adapt to AI, emphasizing a case-by-case, long-term approach.

Host: Rob Campbell, CFA – Institutional Portfolio Manager

Guest: Peter Lampert, CFA – Portfolio Manager

This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts. Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore.

Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com.

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Paul Moroz returns to share an update on our global equity strategy. We dig into what's changed since Paul resumed the lead portfolio manager role, how the team's collaboration has evolved, and why a more diversified and resilient portfolio is the result. Listen for Paul's take on why optionality and humility matter more than ever.

Key highlights:

• Enhanced team collaboration through structural changes leading to better cross-team idea generation

• Improved portfolio diversification with holdings expanding to over 70 securities: reduction of consumer staples and discretionary overweights, while adding strategic small positions that provide optionality for rapid capital allocation as markets shift

• Fundamental momentum alignment improved by reducing problem positions and increasing strong earnings momentum names, resulting in better down capture characteristics during market declines

• Strategic AI complex exposure built through diversified Asian infrastructure plays in memory, power, data centers, and chip fabrication, targeting high market share businesses with better risk-adjusted returns

• Comprehensive IT sector review underway to identify opportunities in potentially mispriced software companies

• Portfolio repositioning complete with approximately 19% turnover executed to create a more balanced, diversified portfolio aligned with the platform's investment philosophy: designed for resilience across market regimes

Host: Rob Campbell, CFA – Institutional Portfolio Manager

Guest: Paul Moroz, CFA – Portfolio Manager

This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts. Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore.

Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com.

Follow us on social:

LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/

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In this episode, we sat down with our Director of Research, Vijay Viswanathan, and Institutional Portfolio Manager, Kevin Minas, to talk through their observations this past quarter. We talk macro, micro, and everything in between, touching on changing market dynamics, central bank policy, how the portfolios are doing in this environment, and, finally, how we're positioning ourselves as we move forward.

Key highlights:

• Three major macro themes dominated the quarter—trade policy tensions (though somewhat cooling), continued fiscal stimulus despite near-capacity economies, and AI-driven infrastructure growth
• Central banks are balancing growth concerns and inflation risks, with both the Fed and Bank of Canada beginning easing cycles in September
• Equity markets showed a strong "risk-on" tone, hitting record highs, with AI and commodities (especially gold and copper) driving much of the growth and market attention.
• Fixed income returns were strong, led by central bank easing and tighter credit spreads; portfolios favored short-duration bonds and gradually reduced risk as valuations rose.
• Asset Mix shifts include trimming U.S. and Canadian large cap equities after strong absolute returns, increasing exposure to emerging markets and global credit, and shifting from cash to fixed income for better yield and resilience.
• The team remains committed to core investment principles while adapting portfolios for changing market dynamics

Host:
Andrew Johnson, CFA - Institutional Portfolio Manager
Guests:
Kevin Minas, CFA, MBA, CAIA - Institutional Portfolio Manager
Vijay Viswanathan, CFA, MBA - Director of Research, Portfolio Manager

This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts.

Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore.

Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com.

Follow us on social:

LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/

Instagram -https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/

In this episode, Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Crista Caughlin breaks down the macro forces driving bond markets in 2025. From trade uncertainty to central bank policy shifts, Crista explains how these themes are shaping Canadian fixed income performance and where she sees opportunities ahead.

Key highlights:

• Trade policy uncertainty, fiscal stimulus, and tighter financial conditions have been key macroeconomic themes shaping global and Canadian bond markets, with U.S. trade actions and paused tariffs reducing some volatility but still weighing on Canadian growth and exports.
• Central banks, including the Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve, have shifted from a wait-and-see approach to resuming rate cuts as growth slows and inflation pressures moderate, though questions about central bank independence and timing of policy moves remain.
• Canadian bond market performance has been driven by both falling interest rates—especially at the short end of the curve—and tightening credit spreads, with shorter maturities and lower-quality credits outperforming, while longer-dated bonds have lagged due to concerns about persistent inflation.
• The current strategy emphasizes a steepening yield curve, overweight positions in shorter-dated, higher-quality corporate bonds, and caution on longer maturities, reflecting expectations for continued central bank easing and ongoing risks from inflation and credit fundamentals.
• Despite recent headlines about rising bond-equity correlations and market risks, fixed income remains a valuable portfolio diversifier, offering higher yields than in recent years and providing a cushion against volatility and modest rate increases.

Host: Kevin Minas, CFA– Institutional Portfolio Manager

Guest: Christa Caughlin, CFA– Portfolio Manager

This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts. Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore.

Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com.

Follow us on social:

LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/

Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/