In this episode, Investment Counsellor Stu Morrow and Institutional Portfolio Manager Kevin Minas examine the forces reshaping markets in the fourth quarter. From central banks navigating the shift toward policy normalization to equity leadership rotating beyond mega-cap AI stocks, they explore how a resilient but slowing economy is influencing investment decisions. The conversation covers evolving credit conditions, geopolitical developments including recent events in Venezuela, and the portfolio adjustments being made as valuations rise and late-cycle dynamics emerge.

Key highlights:

• Global growth is moderating, labour markets are softening, and inflation is easing, giving central banks room to shift from restrictive policy toward gradual normalization.

• Steeper yield curves and very tight credit spreads leave bond investors with decent starting yields but limited compensation for taking extra credit or liquidity risk—arguing against "reaching for yield."

• Equity leadership is broadening beyond a narrow group of U.S. megacap AI winners, with stronger participation from cyclicals, financials, and international markets—a healthier backdrop for diversified, active investors.

• The AI boom is increasingly about infrastructure—semiconductors, memory, power, and data centres—raising questions about sustainability, profitability, and bubblelike dynamics in parts of the ecosystem.

• Geopolitical shifts, including U.S. intervention in Venezuela and a move toward more transactional "spheres of influence," reinforce the case for disciplined, diversified, valuation driven positioning and only incremental asset mix adjustments.

Host:
Kevin Minas, CFA, MBA, CAIA
Institutional Portfolio Manager

Guest:
Stu Morrow, CFA
Investment Counsellor

This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts.

Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore.

Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com.

Follow us on social:

LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/

Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/

From lingering "Liberation Day" tariff fears and a shift toward a more pro-growth federal policy stance to changing leadership within key sectors, Canadian equity portfolio manager Mark Rutherford unpacks what moved markets for Canadian equities in 2025. He explains how this backdrop influenced recent positioning in the Canadian equity portfolio, including adjustments within energy, banks, and gold. The conversation then turns to the U.S. intervention in Venezuela and its implications for Canadian oil: how potential increases in Venezuelan heavy crude could affect Western Canadian differentials, why integrated producers may be relatively better positioned, and the role of TMX export capacity in supporting basin pricing. Stepping back, Mark explores the move toward a more transactional, spheres of influence world and how the team is incorporating this evolving U.S.–Canada dynamic into portfolio construction through diversified, incremental shifts rather than binary macro bets.

Key Highlights:

• In 2025, Canadian equity returns were shaped less by the initial "Liberation Day" tariff shock and more by how markets digested that risk over time alongside a domestic pivot toward pro-growth policy—forces that helped support energy, commodities, and especially the banks.

• Within financials, Canadian banks—TD in particular—saw improving fundamentals as credit conditions held up, wealth and capital markets businesses performed well, and a more growth oriented regulatory stance supported competitiveness.

• In energy, the team tilted toward integrated producers like Suncor and trimmed more differential sensitive exposure such as Canadian Natural, balancing the long-term risk of higher Venezuelan heavy crude supply against the offsetting support of TMX export capacity.

• The team selectively added to gold producers, seeing attractive unit economics and reasonable valuations, and viewing gold as a useful diversifier in a world of geopolitical tension, dedollarization talk, and looser fiscal discipline.

• Stepping back, Mark frames Venezuela and trade policy within a broader shift toward transactional spheres of influence and "mercantilist" great power politics—arguing for diversified, incremental positioning changes rather than binary macro bets or anchoring portfolios to any single geopolitical outcome.

Host: Andrew Johnson, CFA Portfolio Manager

Guest: Mark Rutherford, CFA Equity Analyst

This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts.

Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore.

Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com.

Follow us on social:

LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/

Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/

U.S. mid-cap equities are often overlooked, but beneath the headlines of consumer weakness and market volatility, there's a more nuanced story. Portfolio manager Jeff Mo shares a bottom-up perspective on resilient—though bifurcated—consumer spending, margin surprises, and a capital expenditure boom that extends beyond AI. The discussion explores how company fundamentals, competitive advantages, and valuation opportunities are shaping portfolio decisions, with insights into sectors like defense and industrials. Jeff also addresses the impact of macro trends on stock selection, the evolving CapEx landscape, and why mid-cap valuations may offer compelling long-term potential.

KEY HIGHLIGHTS:

• U.S. consumer spending remains resilient overall, though lower-income segments are showing more strain and deal-seeking behavior.
• Companies with strong competitive advantages continue to demonstrate pricing power and healthy margins, despite inflation and shifting cost pressures.
• The current CapEx boom is not limited to AI—reshoring, supply chain resilience, and manufacturing investments are driving activity across sectors.
• Market volatility in the mid-cap space has led to outsized stock reactions, creating opportunities for long-term, bottom-up investors.
• Defense and industrial companies, such as CACI International and ITT, are benefiting from innovation, management execution, and evolving end markets.
• Mid-cap valuations are reasonable relative to large-caps, with select areas appearing overlooked and offering attractive long-term return potential.
  
  

Host: Rob Campbell, CFA Portfolio Manager

Guest: Jeff Mo, CFA Portfolio Manager

Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore.

Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com. Follow us on social:

LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/

Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/