In this episode, Investment Counsellor Stu Morrow and Institutional Portfolio Manager Kevin Minas examine the forces reshaping markets in the fourth quarter. From central banks navigating the shift toward policy normalization to equity leadership rotating beyond mega-cap AI stocks, they explore how a resilient but slowing economy is influencing investment decisions. The conversation covers evolving credit conditions, geopolitical developments including recent events in Venezuela, and the portfolio adjustments being made as valuations rise and late-cycle dynamics emerge.

Key highlights:

• Global growth is moderating, labour markets are softening, and inflation is easing, giving central banks room to shift from restrictive policy toward gradual normalization.

• Steeper yield curves and very tight credit spreads leave bond investors with decent starting yields but limited compensation for taking extra credit or liquidity risk—arguing against "reaching for yield."

• Equity leadership is broadening beyond a narrow group of U.S. megacap AI winners, with stronger participation from cyclicals, financials, and international markets—a healthier backdrop for diversified, active investors.

• The AI boom is increasingly about infrastructure—semiconductors, memory, power, and data centres—raising questions about sustainability, profitability, and bubblelike dynamics in parts of the ecosystem.

• Geopolitical shifts, including U.S. intervention in Venezuela and a move toward more transactional "spheres of influence," reinforce the case for disciplined, diversified, valuation driven positioning and only incremental asset mix adjustments.

Host:
Kevin Minas, CFA, MBA, CAIA
Institutional Portfolio Manager

Guest:
Stu Morrow, CFA
Investment Counsellor

This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts.

Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore.

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