Jan Rogers Kniffen has been calling the retail recession for four years. It still hasn’t happened. “This is the recession that’s been six months off for the last four years,” he tells Ken. “It’s been the longest coming recession that I’ve seen since the recession.” The CEO of J. Rogers Kniffen WWE, a former senior executive at the May Department Stores, and a frequent CNBC retail commentator, Kniffen has watched the mall rise and fall, lived through Walmart eating the discount space, and witnessed the internet reshape half of all retail. He thinks agentic AI will change retail more than all of those combined. But first, Q4 2026 has to play out, and Kniffen is giving the consumer a 7.5 out of 10 heading into the golden quarter.

In this episode of The Retail Pilot, Ken sits down with Jan Rogers Kniffen, CEO of J. Rogers Kniffen WWE and longtime CNBC retail analyst, to unpack what’s actually going to happen in Q4 2026. They cover why consumer confidence hit 46.3 but spending kept growing, why Albertsons’ problem is Walmart (not the consumer), why Lululemon is losing to Vuori and Alo, why Ross is the “most improved” retailer in off price, how agentic AI will disintermediate customers from the search and buy process for the first time in retail history, and the three retailers Kniffen says will crush Q4 (and the three that will struggle).

In this episode you’ll learn:

• Why Kniffen scores the economy at 6.5 and the consumer at 7.5 heading into Q4 2026
• Why consumer confidence (46.3) has been a terrible predictor of consumer spending for years
• Why Levi’s had a tough Q3 and what it signals about denim and advertising missteps
• The “Costwalson” prediction: why Costco, Walmart, and Amazon will own the future of retail
• Kniffen’s Q4 2026 forecast: 4.8% growth vs. Mastercard’s 5.5% call
• The three retailers best positioned to win Q4: Walmart, Ross, and Five Below (and why)
• The three retailers most vulnerable: Home Depot, Macy’s/Kohl’s, and Nike/Lululemon/Levi’s
• Why Ross is the “most improved” retailer in off price and what it means for TJ Maxx
• Why agentic AI will change retail more than the mall, Walmart, or the internet ever did

This episode is for you if: you’re a retail CEO or operator planning for Q4 and 2027, an investor tracking public retail names into holiday, a brand leader thinking about how agentic AI will reshape product discovery, a merchant trying to read the macro signal from the noise, or anyone who wants a candid, veteran analyst read on what’s actually going to happen this holiday season.

Don’t forget to subscribe to The Retail Pilot podcast for more conversations with retail industry leaders and visionaries shaping the future of commerce.

If you missed our last episode, where Nitin Mangtani, EVP and GM of Salesforce Commerce Cloud, unpacks how retail commerce is being rebuilt for the agentic AI era, be sure to tune in.

Connect with Ken:
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Nitin Mangtani has pivoted a company more than once. He built PredictSpring in a garage in 2013 as a white label mobile app platform, watched it work with brands like Ralph Lauren and Calvin Klein, then made the hardest call of his career: kill the model that was working and rebuild the company as a point of sale platform. That second act took PredictSpring to Crate and Barrel, Under Armour, Steve Madden, and eventually a September 2024 acquisition by Salesforce. Fourteen months later, Mangtani is running commerce for all of Salesforce. "You have to be prepared to pivot every five years even after you have reached scale," he tells Ken. He knows because he's lived it.

In this episode of The Retail Pilot, Ken sits down with Nitin Mangtani, EVP and GM of Salesforce Commerce Cloud and Retail Cloud, to unpack how retail commerce is being rebuilt for the agentic AI era. They explore his journey from Google to PredictSpring to Salesforce, the pivot from white label apps to POS that saved the business, the three pillars of true unified commerce, why the checkout cart will eventually disappear, how agents are live on brand sites like Shark Ninja, Williams Sonoma, and Pandora, and the Zoomin acquisition powering conversational commerce.

In this episode you'll learn:

• The 30-year arc of digital commerce and why the industry pivots every 5 years
• Why Nitin pivoted PredictSpring from white label apps to POS, and the metrics that forced the decision
• Why PredictSpring won by being mobile first, omnichannel first, and customer 360 first from day zero
• What actually happens in the 90 days after a startup gets acquired by Salesforce
• The three pillars of true unified commerce: e-commerce, POS, and Order Management (OMS)
• Why most competitors have only two of the three, and what that means for total cost of ownership
• Where agentic commerce is live today: Shark Ninja, Williams Sonoma, Pandora, and more
• Why Nitin believes the checkout cart will eventually disappear from the shopping journey
• The Zoomin acquisition and why conversational search is the new default for websites
• Working with Marc Benioff: leadership lessons from a hands on founder CEO
• The advice Nitin gives retail executives on how to actually work with technology startups
  

This episode is for you if: you're a retail CIO or CTO evaluating commerce platforms, a founder in retail tech, a merchant curious how agentic AI is changing product discovery, a brand leader mapping your unified commerce roadmap, or anyone tracking how the biggest platforms are rebuilding for the AI era.

Don’t forget to subscribe to The Retail Pilot podcast for more conversations with retail industry leaders and visionaries shaping the future of commerce.

If you missed our last episode, where Shea Jensen, President of Urban Outfitters North America, unpacks the strategy behind the brand's comeback, be sure to tune in.

Connect with Ken:
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When Shea Jensen took over as President of Urban Outfitters North America in February 2024, the brand was posting double-digit comp declines. Eighteen months later, it's posting double-digit comp gains. "It's much more fun to go backwards in time when you're serving customers than forwards in time," Jensen tells Ken. "Nothing's better than going back to college." Jensen spent 35 years at Nordstrom, starting in a stock room at age 15, and is running one of retail's most-watched turnarounds by doing the unglamorous work: rebuilding BDG denim as a category authority, stretching Out from Under into lounge and athleisure, right-sizing the fleet, and meeting Gen Z where they actually live, on Reddit – on Pinterest, and now on DoorDash.

In this episode of The Retail Pilot, Ken and co-host Melissa Gonzalez sit down with Shea Jensen, President of Urban Outfitters North America, to unpack the strategy behind the brand's comeback. They explore the customer-first product philosophy driving BDG denim and Out from Under, the four-tier store strategy, the fleet right-sizing that unlocked productivity, the digital channels that actually matter for Gen Z , the DoorDash partnership pulling last-minute shoppers, and the collabs with Chipotle and Dunkin' that turned into cultural moments.

In this episode you'll learn:

• Why Urban Outfitters is going backwards in time to win with Gen Z and Gen Alpha
• The BDG denim strategy: premium denim at a non-premium price, building fit franchises with staying power
• How Out from Under became a lounge and athleisure powerhouse without trying to compete with Lululemon
• The price elasticity playbook: covering opening, mid, and best price points to serve every customer
• Urban's four store types: high-profile, community, college, and core doors
• The fleet right-sizing story: going from oversized boxes to a 7,000–9,000 sq ft sweet spot
• Why Reddit, Pinterest, connected TV, and TikTok are driving discovery, not Facebook or Instagram alone
• The DoorDash partnership pulling customers in on Thursday and Friday afternoons
• The Chipotle, Dunkin', and beverage collabs turning brand partnerships into cultural moments
• The one piece of career advice Shea would give her younger store manager self
  

This episode is for you if: you're a retail operator running a turnaround, a merchant balancing private brands and national brands, a marketer trying to reach Gen Z where they actually are, a store designer rethinking format, or a brand leader curious how one of retail's most iconic names is rebuilding its cultural relevance.

Don’t forget to subscribe to The Retail Pilot podcast for more conversations with retail industry leaders and visionaries shaping the future of commerce.

If you missed our last episode, where Neil Saunders, Managing Director and Retail Analyst at GlobalData, unpacks the biggest stories shaping retail in the back half of 2026, be sure to tune in.

Connect with Ken:
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There's a common assumption in retail right now that the top of the market is the only thing growing. Neil Saunders, Managing Director of GlobalData Retail and one of the industry's most-followed analysts, doesn't buy it. "Every broad income group has contributed to the increase in retail sales," Saunders tells Ken. The K-shaped economy is real, he argues, but it's hiding in the volume numbers, not the dollars. It's one of many contrarian reads he brings to this wide-ranging conversation on the state of retail in 2026, from tariffs and consumer resilience, to why Lululemon's stores now feel "sterile," and which retail names he'd put his own money behind today.

In this episode of The Retail Pilot, Ken sits down with Neil Saunders, Managing Director and Retail Analyst at GlobalData, to unpack the biggest stories shaping retail in the back half of 2026: the tariff pass-through math (roughly 40–45% to consumers), the K-shaped consumer decoded, the denim wars between Levi's, Gap, and Abercrombie, the athleisure shift away from Lululemon toward Vuori and Alo, the department store resurgence under merchant-led leaders at Macy's and Saks, Walmart's move on the $100K+ household, and where AI is actually delivering results.

In this episode you'll learn:

• The tariff pass-through math: ~40–45% of costs pushed to consumers, the rest absorbed through sourcing shifts and margin

• The K-shaped consumer, decoded: why the real divergence is hiding in volume, not value

• Why the first half of 2026 was propped up by tax refunds and what that means for the back half

• How Gap's "cultural currency" strategy under Richard Dickson is pulling younger customers back

• The athleisure shift: why Lululemon is losing ground to Vuori, Alo, and Abercrombie's YPB

• Why department stores aren't going extinct and why Tony Spring at Macy's is Neil's pick for best retail CEO

• Walmart's move on the $100K+ household and why they still behave like a small entrepreneurial retailer

• The global fast fashion breakdown: why Uniqlo is winning, Zara is mature, and H&M feels like "yesterday's retailer"

This episode is for you if: you're a retail operator trying to read the macro signal from the noise, a brand leader benchmarking your category's competitive landscape, an investor tracking public retail names into the back half of 2026, a marketer thinking about cultural currency and celebrity partnerships, or anyone who wants a candid analyst read on who's actually winning in retail right now.

Don’t forget to subscribe to The Retail Pilot podcast for more conversations with retail industry leaders and visionaries shaping the future of commerce.

If you missed our last episode, where CEO of Vuori, Joe Kudla unpacks how a former CPA and fashion model turned a men's yoga apparel gap into one of the most admired brands in performance wear, be sure to tune in.

Connect with Ken:
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When Joe Kudla launched Vuori out of a Southern California garage in 2013, he was betting against his own track record. He'd already tried the apparel business twice and failed both times. He had a comfortable life, a thriving financial consulting firm he'd built to hundreds of employees, real financial independence, the kind of success that came from humble beginnings near Seattle. And he walked away from it.

What pulled him back was a men's activewear gap nobody else was serving and a creative pull he'd spent years ignoring. "I just didn't want to look back and be like, yeah, I wanted this so bad, but I never really jumped in with two feet," Kudla tells Ken. With $400K from friends and family and two employees who are still with him today, he went all in. Sixteen years later, Vuori is a billion-dollar global brand valued north of $5 billion, spanning 100+ stores, 30+ countries, and 3,000+ employees, and here's the kicker: he built the entire thing having put only about $2M on the company's balance sheet.

In this episode of The Retail Pilot, Ken sits down with Joe Kudla – Founder and CEO of Vuori – to unpack how a former CPA and fashion model turned a men's yoga apparel gap into one of the most admired brands in performance wear. They explore the founding story, the fabric-first product philosophy, the community-driven retail model that started in a 3,000-square-foot popup doubling as an art gallery, the REI break that opened wholesale, the capital strategy that returned $1.2B+ to shareholders, and the tariff playbook that protected quality over margin.

In this episode you'll learn:

• The white space that launched Vuori: an underserved men's yoga market 2x the size of surfing, and activewear you'd want to live in, not change out of
• Why raising money in 2013 was "almost impossible", and how $400K from friends and family got it started
• How the first store became a community hub, art gallery, and office all at once
• The REI break that proved premium men's athleisure could be a wholesale category
• How Vuori hit profitability by 2017 with the office in the backstock room
• The capital strategy most people misunderstand: $1.2B+ raised for shareholders, only ~$2M put on the balance sheet
• The international growth story: from a beach town in Encinitas to customers in China and Korea
• How Vuori handled the tariff hit: don't panic, never cut corners, and split the cost three ways
• The leadership philosophy: a "no drama" culture policy, fabric-first meetings, and why Kudla is still the fit model

Don’t forget to subscribe to The Retail Pilot podcast for more conversations with retail industry leaders and visionaries shaping the future of commerce.

If you missed our last episode, where James Reinhart, Co-Founder and CEO of Thredup, explains how he built one of the most operationally complex companies in fashion, be sure to tune in.

Connect with Ken:
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When James Reinhart walked into a Cambridge consignment store with a bag of business school clothes in 2008 – a J.Crew cashmere sweater, a Brooks Brothers coat – and was told they had no resale value, he didn't accept the answer. "I can't believe this cashmere sweater is worth zero," Reinhart tells Ken. That moment became Thredup. Sixteen years later, the company he co-founded as a broke ex-teacher earning $24K a year is a public marketplace approaching $400M in annual revenue, with 25M+ items sold this year across 35,000 brands.

In this episode of The Retail Pilot, Ken sits down with James Reinhart – Co-Founder and CEO of Thredup – to unpack how a former 8th grade teacher built one of the most operationally complex companies in fashion. They explore the founding story, the "Netflix of shirts" pitch, the unit economics driving 80% gross margins, the Resale-as-a-Service partnerships with J.Crew, Athleta, Steve Madden, and Cotopaxi, the peer-to-peer launch competing with Poshmark and Depop, and the 4-day work week that became permanent.

In this episode you'll learn:

• How a Cambridge consignment rejection and a J.Crew cashmere sweater became the genesis of Thredup
• Why the first year ran on $70K with 7 employees – and why Boston VCs passed before Silicon Valley said yes
• The "Netflix of shirts" original pitch – and why it was a "terrible business" that taught them everything
• How Thredup hit ~$400M in annual revenue and a 25% YoY increase in active buyers
• The KPIs James actually tracks: contribution margins, LTV to CAC, and units per hour throughput
• The supply-side strategy: why dominating sellers is the playbook (and what Airbnb, OpenTable, and Spotify taught him)
• Resale-as-a-Service: how J.Crew, Athleta, Steve Madden, and Cotopaxi power resale with Thredup
• The direct listings launch: how Thredup is competing with Poshmark and Depop
• Inside Thredup's distribution centers: hundreds of thousands of items processed daily, 1M+ photos a day
• The Dallas warehouse: 4 football fields, 4 stories high, 10M items, $600–700M in throughput
• How AI is powering search, discovery, and Pinterest-board-to-shop curation
• The 4-day work week experiment that never ended – and the sabbatical and maker day policies before it
• Why Thredup went public – and why James thinks it made the company "so much better"
  

This episode is for you if: you're a founder building operational moats, a retail operator exploring Resale-as-a-Service, an investor tracking unit economics, a brand leader weighing circularity, or an HR leader curious about the 4-day work week.

Subscribe to The Retail Pilot for more conversations with retail leaders shaping the future of commerce.

If you missed our last episode, where Denise Incandela unpacks Walmart's fashion transformation, be sure to tune in.

Connect with Ken:
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Walmart just named Denise Incandela a Sam Walton Entrepreneur of the Year — one of the highest honors inside the company, and one rarely given to merchants. It's a fitting recognition for the EVP of Fashion leading one of the largest fashion transformations in American retail.

In this episode of The Retail Pilot, Ken sits down with Denise Incandela -- EVP of Fashion at Walmart U.S. and a 20-year luxury retail veteran (Saks Fifth Avenue, Ralph Lauren) -- to unpack the three pillars driving Walmart's strategy: assortment, shopping experience, and perception. They explore the 80% insight that reshaped everything, how Denise's team modernized 15 private brands while bringing in 1,000+ national brands, why Walmart pop-ups in Soho became a viral cultural moment, how AI is collapsing the design-to-shelf cycle from nine months to under one, and why the $100K+ customer is now the growth engine. This is a conversation about scale, democratization, and changing how an entire country thinks about Walmart fashion.

In this episode you'll learn:

• Why Denise won the Sam Walton Entrepreneur of the Year Award -- and why merchants almost never receive it

• The three pillars of Walmart's fashion transformation: assortment, shopping experience, and perception

• The 80% insight that changed everything: Walmart's customer spend was happening at higher price points than it offered

• The private brand playbook: six $1B+ brands, four $2B+ brands, and the New York design team behind them

• How Free Assembly, Scoop, Joy Spun, and Weekend Academy were built -- and why some legacy brands had to be sunset

• The Soho pop-up that did 40% more daily volume than an average Supercenter with just three brands

• Cashmere for $45 and silk for the first time in Walmart's history — and what sold out almost immediately

• Why Walmart is "very different than fast fashion" -- and how quality sets the guardrails

• The Zeekit acquisition and virtual try-on driving higher conversion and lower return rates

• The creator strategy changing perception faster than any traditional media buy

• The $100K+ customer: where Walmart is winning her from, and why she's the growth engine

• Why "you had to shop at Walmart" is becoming "you want to shop at Walmart"

Don’t forget to subscribe to The Retail Pilot podcast for more conversations with retail industry leaders and visionaries shaping the future of commerce.

If you missed our last episode, where Tanya Golesic unpacks exactly how she's scaling Mackage beyond its outerwear roots, be sure to tune in.

Connect with Ken:
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When Tanya Golesic took the helm of Mackage in July 2021, she inherited a Canadian brand with extraordinary product and almost no story. "The minute you put the product on, you wouldn't want to take the product off," Golesic tells Ken. "But it was lacking a brand story. It was lacking storytelling." Four years and a record-breaking 2025 later, the former Jimmy Choo president has transformed a down-outerwear specialist into a global luxury lifestyle brand—stretching price points to $3,500, balancing the men's-women's split, and betting on the Croatia national team at the World Cup. This is a masterclass in brand building from someone who learned the craft at Ralph Lauren, Marc Jacobs, Canada Goose, and LVMH.

In this episode of The Retail Pilot, Ken sits down with Tanya Golesic, CEO of Mackage, to trace her journey from a Croatian immigrant family in Canada to the top of global luxury fashion, and to unpack how she's scaling Mackage beyond its outerwear roots. This is a conversation about craftsmanship, curation, building inside a private-equity-backed startup, and why fashion has more in common with sports than most people think.

In this episode you'll learn:

• How Tanya went from a Croatian immigrant family in Canada to leadership at Ralph Lauren, Marc Jacobs, LVMH, Canada Goose, and Jimmy Choo

• Why she turned down Mackage the first time—and how a "six-and-a-half-year interview" led her to the CEO role

• The "aesthetics that protect" brand ethos: why Mackage product must be fashionable, functional, and technical all at once

• How Mackage shifted from 50% heavyweight down to a 12-month lifestyle business spanning leather, cashmere, ready-to-wear, and rainwear

• Why 2025 was a record year with double-digit growth—and how launching a real spring collection unlocked it

• The logo strategy: segmenting between a "quiet luxury" customer and a streetwear customer with flexible branding

• How she stretched price points from $850–$1,200 up to $3,500 without raising prices across the board

• The wholesale discipline: applying the 80/20 rule and pulling back doors to focus on top-tier accounts

• Mackage's global retail expansion across Canada, the US, Paris, Japan, China, and Korea—and when to use partners vs. going in-house

Don’t forget to subscribe to The Retail Pilot podcast for more conversations with retail industry leaders and visionaries shaping the future of commerce.

If you missed our last episode, where Pete Nordstrom unpacks the eight-year journey to go private, the strategic partnership with Liverpool that made it possible, and what's actually changed since May 2025, be sure to tune in.

Connect with Ken:
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