Jan Rogers Kniffen has been calling the retail recession for four years. It still hasn’t happened. “This is the recession that’s been six months off for the last four years,” he tells Ken. “It’s been the longest coming recession that I’ve seen since the recession.” The CEO of J. Rogers Kniffen WWE, a former senior executive at the May Department Stores, and a frequent CNBC retail commentator, Kniffen has watched the mall rise and fall, lived through Walmart eating the discount space, and witnessed the internet reshape half of all retail. He thinks agentic AI will change retail more than all of those combined. But first, Q4 2026 has to play out, and Kniffen is giving the consumer a 7.5 out of 10 heading into the golden quarter.

In this episode of The Retail Pilot, Ken sits down with Jan Rogers Kniffen, CEO of J. Rogers Kniffen WWE and longtime CNBC retail analyst, to unpack what’s actually going to happen in Q4 2026. They cover why consumer confidence hit 46.3 but spending kept growing, why Albertsons’ problem is Walmart (not the consumer), why Lululemon is losing to Vuori and Alo, why Ross is the “most improved” retailer in off price, how agentic AI will disintermediate customers from the search and buy process for the first time in retail history, and the three retailers Kniffen says will crush Q4 (and the three that will struggle).

In this episode you’ll learn:

• Why Kniffen scores the economy at 6.5 and the consumer at 7.5 heading into Q4 2026
• Why consumer confidence (46.3) has been a terrible predictor of consumer spending for years
• Why Levi’s had a tough Q3 and what it signals about denim and advertising missteps
• The “Costwalson” prediction: why Costco, Walmart, and Amazon will own the future of retail
• Kniffen’s Q4 2026 forecast: 4.8% growth vs. Mastercard’s 5.5% call
• The three retailers best positioned to win Q4: Walmart, Ross, and Five Below (and why)
• The three retailers most vulnerable: Home Depot, Macy’s/Kohl’s, and Nike/Lululemon/Levi’s
• Why Ross is the “most improved” retailer in off price and what it means for TJ Maxx
• Why agentic AI will change retail more than the mall, Walmart, or the internet ever did

This episode is for you if: you’re a retail CEO or operator planning for Q4 and 2027, an investor tracking public retail names into holiday, a brand leader thinking about how agentic AI will reshape product discovery, a merchant trying to read the macro signal from the noise, or anyone who wants a candid, veteran analyst read on what’s actually going to happen this holiday season.

Don’t forget to subscribe to The Retail Pilot podcast for more conversations with retail industry leaders and visionaries shaping the future of commerce.

If you missed our last episode, where Nitin Mangtani, EVP and GM of Salesforce Commerce Cloud, unpacks how retail commerce is being rebuilt for the agentic AI era, be sure to tune in.

Connect with Ken:
-Follow Ken Pilot Ventures on LinkedIn, Instagram, and YouTube.

Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

Nitin Mangtani has pivoted a company more than once. He built PredictSpring in a garage in 2013 as a white label mobile app platform, watched it work with brands like Ralph Lauren and Calvin Klein, then made the hardest call of his career: kill the model that was working and rebuild the company as a point of sale platform. That second act took PredictSpring to Crate and Barrel, Under Armour, Steve Madden, and eventually a September 2024 acquisition by Salesforce. Fourteen months later, Mangtani is running commerce for all of Salesforce. "You have to be prepared to pivot every five years even after you have reached scale," he tells Ken. He knows because he's lived it.

In this episode of The Retail Pilot, Ken sits down with Nitin Mangtani, EVP and GM of Salesforce Commerce Cloud and Retail Cloud, to unpack how retail commerce is being rebuilt for the agentic AI era. They explore his journey from Google to PredictSpring to Salesforce, the pivot from white label apps to POS that saved the business, the three pillars of true unified commerce, why the checkout cart will eventually disappear, how agents are live on brand sites like Shark Ninja, Williams Sonoma, and Pandora, and the Zoomin acquisition powering conversational commerce.

In this episode you'll learn:

• The 30-year arc of digital commerce and why the industry pivots every 5 years
• Why Nitin pivoted PredictSpring from white label apps to POS, and the metrics that forced the decision
• Why PredictSpring won by being mobile first, omnichannel first, and customer 360 first from day zero
• What actually happens in the 90 days after a startup gets acquired by Salesforce
• The three pillars of true unified commerce: e-commerce, POS, and Order Management (OMS)
• Why most competitors have only two of the three, and what that means for total cost of ownership
• Where agentic commerce is live today: Shark Ninja, Williams Sonoma, Pandora, and more
• Why Nitin believes the checkout cart will eventually disappear from the shopping journey
• The Zoomin acquisition and why conversational search is the new default for websites
• Working with Marc Benioff: leadership lessons from a hands on founder CEO
• The advice Nitin gives retail executives on how to actually work with technology startups
  

This episode is for you if: you're a retail CIO or CTO evaluating commerce platforms, a founder in retail tech, a merchant curious how agentic AI is changing product discovery, a brand leader mapping your unified commerce roadmap, or anyone tracking how the biggest platforms are rebuilding for the AI era.

Don’t forget to subscribe to The Retail Pilot podcast for more conversations with retail industry leaders and visionaries shaping the future of commerce.

If you missed our last episode, where Shea Jensen, President of Urban Outfitters North America, unpacks the strategy behind the brand's comeback, be sure to tune in.

Connect with Ken:
-Follow Ken Pilot Ventures on LinkedIn, Instagram, and YouTube.

Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

When Shea Jensen took over as President of Urban Outfitters North America in February 2024, the brand was posting double-digit comp declines. Eighteen months later, it's posting double-digit comp gains. "It's much more fun to go backwards in time when you're serving customers than forwards in time," Jensen tells Ken. "Nothing's better than going back to college." Jensen spent 35 years at Nordstrom, starting in a stock room at age 15, and is running one of retail's most-watched turnarounds by doing the unglamorous work: rebuilding BDG denim as a category authority, stretching Out from Under into lounge and athleisure, right-sizing the fleet, and meeting Gen Z where they actually live, on Reddit – on Pinterest, and now on DoorDash.

In this episode of The Retail Pilot, Ken and co-host Melissa Gonzalez sit down with Shea Jensen, President of Urban Outfitters North America, to unpack the strategy behind the brand's comeback. They explore the customer-first product philosophy driving BDG denim and Out from Under, the four-tier store strategy, the fleet right-sizing that unlocked productivity, the digital channels that actually matter for Gen Z , the DoorDash partnership pulling last-minute shoppers, and the collabs with Chipotle and Dunkin' that turned into cultural moments.

In this episode you'll learn:

• Why Urban Outfitters is going backwards in time to win with Gen Z and Gen Alpha
• The BDG denim strategy: premium denim at a non-premium price, building fit franchises with staying power
• How Out from Under became a lounge and athleisure powerhouse without trying to compete with Lululemon
• The price elasticity playbook: covering opening, mid, and best price points to serve every customer
• Urban's four store types: high-profile, community, college, and core doors
• The fleet right-sizing story: going from oversized boxes to a 7,000–9,000 sq ft sweet spot
• Why Reddit, Pinterest, connected TV, and TikTok are driving discovery, not Facebook or Instagram alone
• The DoorDash partnership pulling customers in on Thursday and Friday afternoons
• The Chipotle, Dunkin', and beverage collabs turning brand partnerships into cultural moments
• The one piece of career advice Shea would give her younger store manager self
  

This episode is for you if: you're a retail operator running a turnaround, a merchant balancing private brands and national brands, a marketer trying to reach Gen Z where they actually are, a store designer rethinking format, or a brand leader curious how one of retail's most iconic names is rebuilding its cultural relevance.

Don’t forget to subscribe to The Retail Pilot podcast for more conversations with retail industry leaders and visionaries shaping the future of commerce.

If you missed our last episode, where Neil Saunders, Managing Director and Retail Analyst at GlobalData, unpacks the biggest stories shaping retail in the back half of 2026, be sure to tune in.

Connect with Ken:
-Follow Ken Pilot Ventures on LinkedIn, Instagram, and YouTube.

Hosted on Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.