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First-home buyers are officially dominating the New Zealand property landscape. As we step into the next political cycle, the latest co-branded Westpac & Cotality First Home Buyer Report reveals that FHBs captured an all-time record 29.5% of all property purchases in Q3 2026.

In this special guest episode, Chief Property Economist Kelvin Davidson is joined once again by Westpac Senior Economist Satish Ranchhod to launch the report and unpack the granular lending insights you won't find anywhere else.

The guys discuss how lower house prices in Tāmaki Makaurau / Auckland and Te Whanganui-a-Tara / Wellington are giving buyers unprecedented purchasing power, allowing them to skip the traditional "starter unit" and leap directly into standalone homes. They also dig into the shifting demographics of buyers, including why the average age of a first-home buyer has crept up to 35.5–36 years, and explain what a changing interest rate environment means for your borrowing strategy.

This week we discuss:

• The 29.5% Record: Why first-home buyers are outperforming every other buyer group across Aotearoa New Zealand.
• The Price vs. Value Equation: How FHBs are spending slightly more on average ($715k vs. $701k last year) but securing larger, standalone homes.
• Westpac Lending Insights: A deep dive into actual loan-to-value ratios (LVR) ticking just above 80% on average, and why most buyers are still scraping together a full 20% deposit.
• The Demographics Shift: Why the average FHB age is now 35–36, and how the absence of FOMO is letting families take their time to buy.
• Economic Crosswinds: Satish's macro outlook for 2027, featuring strong inflation heading toward 4% and the implications for further RBNZ rate hikes.
• The "New Normal" of Capital Gains: Why the days of double-digit annual house price spikes are likely gone, and why that’s actually great news for long-term housing affordability.

Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.com

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

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The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has defied near-universal economist expectations, voting to hold the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 2.75% rather than hiking to 3.00%.

In this special, fast-turnaround reactionary episode of the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson dissect the RBNZ's October monetary policy review minutes after its release. They break down the razor-thin 4–3 split on the Monetary Policy Committee, examine why the majority chose to look through the temporary global fuel shock to avoid crushing domestic households, and explore why this is a "wait-and-see" pause rather than a change in direction.

The team also discusses the RBNZ’s explicit prediction of a 4.4% inflation spike in Q4, what this decision means for retail mortgage rates, and how the upcoming 7 November general election and subsequent coalition negotiations will extend the market's cautious holding pattern.

This week we discuss:

• The 4–3 Surprise Hold: Inside the committee's division, including the three members who voted for an immediate hike (Conway, Gourley, and Silk) and the four who successfully pushed for a pause.
• Looking Through Fuel Shocks: Unpacking the RBNZ’s rationale of discounting temporary supply-side disturbances (petrol and shipping costs) to avoid creating unnecessary domestic economic instability.
• RBNZ Projects 4.4% Inflation: Why the central bank openly expects CPI to rebound to 4.4% in Q4, but believes a temporary spike doesn't yet require immediate credit tightening.
• Impact on Retail Mortgage Rates: Why longer-term fixed terms remain heavily influenced by offshore wholesale swap markets, while the OCR pause buys brief breathing room for floating borrowers.
• The Voting Shift: Analysing how committee members' assessments of inflation risks have evolved over the last six weeks.
• Key Dates to Watch: Previewing next week's crucial labour market and unemployment data (4 November) and the general election (7 November).

Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.com

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!

New Zealand’s residential property market is valued at a massive $1.66 trillion across 1.74 million dwellings, holding $1.26 trillion in household equity. Yet, despite this immense wealth buffer, relocating owner-occupiers (movers) have retreated to levels not seen since the Global Financial Crisis.

This week on the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall (fresh off a disrupted flight back from Christchurch) and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson unpack the latest October Housing Chart Pack. They examine why housing's 48% share of household assets may have passed its cyclical peak as KiwiSaver balances grow, why movers dropped to just 24.2% of Q3 sales (and below 20% in Auckland and Wellington), and how new builds are filling the gap for first-home buyers.

The guys also break down the Q3 CPI inflation release (which slowed from 4.1% to 3.7%) and debate tomorrow afternoon’s Reserve Bank Official Cash Rate (OCR) review. While headline inflation eased on imported tradables, sticky domestic inflation (3.3%) and renewed Middle East fuel price pressures mean an OCR hike to 3.00% looks highly likely - though Nick plays devil’s advocate on why the RBNZ could hold until December. Plus, Nick recaps the Taniwha's NPC Final in Christchurch, sold-out Lion Red kegs, and Kelvin’s backyard cricket treat in Lincoln.

This week we discuss:

• The $1.66 Trillion Asset Class: Breaking down 1.74 million dwellings, $404 billion in mortgage debt, $1.26 trillion in equity (24% whole-market LVR), and $78 billion in annual turnover.
• Peak Housing Wealth? Why Stats NZ's estimate of housing making up 48% of household assets may be edging down as KiwiSaver and share portfolios expand.
• Movers Near GFC Lows (24.2%): Why relocating owner-occupiers are sitting tight (dropping below 20% in Auckland and to 18% in Wellington) and clogging up the existing housing chain.
• Q3 CPI Inflation Slows to 3.7%: Unpacking the drop from 4.1%, driven by tradables (4.9% down to 4.3%) while non-tradables edged down only slightly (3.4% to 3.3%).
• Tomorrow's OCR Decision Preview: Why consensus points to an 80-90% chance of a hike tomorrow, contrasted with the devil's advocate case for waiting until December.
• Westpac First-Home Buyer Report Preview: What to expect from this Friday's co-branded release.
• NPC Final, Flight Turnarounds & Backyard Cricket: Nick's whirlwind trip to Christchurch for Canterbury vs. Northland, and Kelvin stumbling onto New Zealand A vs. India A over his back fence.

🔗 Download the latest Cotality Housing Chart Pack: https://www.cotality.com/nz/insights/articles/monthly-housing-chart-pack-october-2026

🔗 Keep an eye out for Friday's Westpac First-Home Buyer Report:

https://www.cotality.com/nz/reports

Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.com

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.