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The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has defied near-universal economist expectations, voting to hold the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 2.75% rather than hiking to 3.00%.

In this special, fast-turnaround reactionary episode of the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson dissect the RBNZ's October monetary policy review minutes after its release. They break down the razor-thin 4–3 split on the Monetary Policy Committee, examine why the majority chose to look through the temporary global fuel shock to avoid crushing domestic households, and explore why this is a "wait-and-see" pause rather than a change in direction.

The team also discusses the RBNZ’s explicit prediction of a 4.4% inflation spike in Q4, what this decision means for retail mortgage rates, and how the upcoming 7 November general election and subsequent coalition negotiations will extend the market's cautious holding pattern.

This week we discuss:

• The 4–3 Surprise Hold: Inside the committee's division, including the three members who voted for an immediate hike (Conway, Gourley, and Silk) and the four who successfully pushed for a pause.
• Looking Through Fuel Shocks: Unpacking the RBNZ’s rationale of discounting temporary supply-side disturbances (petrol and shipping costs) to avoid creating unnecessary domestic economic instability.
• RBNZ Projects 4.4% Inflation: Why the central bank openly expects CPI to rebound to 4.4% in Q4, but believes a temporary spike doesn't yet require immediate credit tightening.
• Impact on Retail Mortgage Rates: Why longer-term fixed terms remain heavily influenced by offshore wholesale swap markets, while the OCR pause buys brief breathing room for floating borrowers.
• The Voting Shift: Analysing how committee members' assessments of inflation risks have evolved over the last six weeks.
• Key Dates to Watch: Previewing next week's crucial labour market and unemployment data (4 November) and the general election (7 November).

Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.com

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.