Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!

New Zealand’s residential property market is valued at a massive $1.66 trillion across 1.74 million dwellings, holding $1.26 trillion in household equity. Yet, despite this immense wealth buffer, relocating owner-occupiers (movers) have retreated to levels not seen since the Global Financial Crisis.

This week on the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall (fresh off a disrupted flight back from Christchurch) and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson unpack the latest October Housing Chart Pack. They examine why housing's 48% share of household assets may have passed its cyclical peak as KiwiSaver balances grow, why movers dropped to just 24.2% of Q3 sales (and below 20% in Auckland and Wellington), and how new builds are filling the gap for first-home buyers.

The guys also break down the Q3 CPI inflation release (which slowed from 4.1% to 3.7%) and debate tomorrow afternoon’s Reserve Bank Official Cash Rate (OCR) review. While headline inflation eased on imported tradables, sticky domestic inflation (3.3%) and renewed Middle East fuel price pressures mean an OCR hike to 3.00% looks highly likely - though Nick plays devil’s advocate on why the RBNZ could hold until December. Plus, Nick recaps the Taniwha's NPC Final in Christchurch, sold-out Lion Red kegs, and Kelvin’s backyard cricket treat in Lincoln.

This week we discuss:

• The $1.66 Trillion Asset Class: Breaking down 1.74 million dwellings, $404 billion in mortgage debt, $1.26 trillion in equity (24% whole-market LVR), and $78 billion in annual turnover.
• Peak Housing Wealth? Why Stats NZ's estimate of housing making up 48% of household assets may be edging down as KiwiSaver and share portfolios expand.
• Movers Near GFC Lows (24.2%): Why relocating owner-occupiers are sitting tight (dropping below 20% in Auckland and to 18% in Wellington) and clogging up the existing housing chain.
• Q3 CPI Inflation Slows to 3.7%: Unpacking the drop from 4.1%, driven by tradables (4.9% down to 4.3%) while non-tradables edged down only slightly (3.4% to 3.3%).
• Tomorrow's OCR Decision Preview: Why consensus points to an 80-90% chance of a hike tomorrow, contrasted with the devil's advocate case for waiting until December.
• Westpac First-Home Buyer Report Preview: What to expect from this Friday's co-branded release.
• NPC Final, Flight Turnarounds & Backyard Cricket: Nick's whirlwind trip to Christchurch for Canterbury vs. Northland, and Kelvin stumbling onto New Zealand A vs. India A over his back fence.

🔗 Download the latest Cotality Housing Chart Pack: https://www.cotality.com/nz/insights/articles/monthly-housing-chart-pack-october-2026

🔗 Keep an eye out for Friday's Westpac First-Home Buyer Report:

https://www.cotality.com/nz/reports

Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.com

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.