The lumber market is sending mixed signals. Buyers are keeping inventories lean, mills are struggling to maintain profitability, and housing demand continues to disappoint. Yet lumber is still moving, and certain products are commanding surprising premiums.

This week on The Lumber Word, Ashley, Gregg, and Charles welcome back Mike Logelin of Gulf Coast Shelter for an unfiltered discussion of the North American lumber market heading into the final months of 2026.

From Southern Yellow Pine versus SPF pricing and mill breakevens to weak housing starts, construction labor shortages, and the challenge of making money while holding inventory, the group digs into what buyers, sellers, and traders are experiencing firsthand.

They also debate CME lumber futures, contango, delivery economics, the lack of liquidity in Southern Pine futures, and whether regional basis risk makes effective hedging harder than it should be. As Gregg puts it: “The only positive that I can find right now is how negative everyone is.”

Is extreme pessimism a sign of a turning point—or is there more pain ahead? Tune in for market insight, honest disagreement, and a few laughs.

00:00 Introduction and Mike Logelin returns

01:10 Southern Yellow Pine market conditions

03:20 Mill costs, breakevens, and production curtailments

05:25 Housing starts, permits, and completions

06:00 Construction labor shortages and builder slowdowns

09:45 Panelization, technology, and housing affordability

14:55 SPF pricing and buyer’s remorse

18:40 Southern Pine replacing SPF in certain markets

20:10 Lumber futures, cash pricing, and delivery economics

22:20 Lumber production and demand trends

26:20 Contango, backwardation, and the CME contract

29:20 Hedging when margins disappear

32:25 Market liquidity and distributor profitability

34:25 EFP opportunities and Southern Pine futures

38:00 Regional basis and Southern Pine futures liquidity

41:50 Bearish sentiment and the lumber market outlook

43:40 European lumber imports and freight concerns

45:15 Closing remarks

Lumber prices are soft—but the demand picture may surprise you. Scott Hall of Matheus Lumber joins The Lumber Word crew to explain why his company’s lumber volume has held relatively steady, where multifamily business is growing, and what customers are already booking for 2027.

Ashley Boeckholt, Gregg Riley, Matt Beymer, and Charles discuss whether SPF, US Species and SYP are finding a bottom, how mill curtailments may be supporting prices, and why freight remains a major challenge. Scott shares how he manages inventory against future commitments, why buying too far ahead can add costs, and what’s driving Texas builders toward Southern Yellow Pine studs. The conversation also covers tight construction financing, the outlook for housing demand, and a key question: has supply fallen fast enough to keep weak demand from pushing lumber prices much lower?

Episode timeline 00:00 Welcome and the first Patreon Insiders livestream 01:09 Lumber market overview: seasonal weakness and discounted cash prices 02:37 Spruce outlook: mill economics and potential curtailments 04:51 Southern Yellow Pine: freight and regional price differences 08:32 Meet Scott Hall of Matheus Lumber 10:27 Multifamily demand: steady volume and shifting regional activity 13:23 Booking 2027 projects and the risks of pricing too far ahead 16:02 How builders buy lumber—and how Scott manages inventory 19:19 Inside storage: protecting lumber and panels 20:51 Species switching: Southern Yellow Pine versus Douglas fir studs 22:16 Finger-jointed studs: pricing, availability, and alternatives 25:23 Western lumber update: is Douglas fir finding a bottom? 27:03 Gregg’s bottom call on spruce 2x4s 27:53 Homebuilder pressures and financing structures 30:24 Multifamily financing: contractors putting equity into projects 31:49 Has housing demand bottomed? The outlook into 2027 36:22 Q4 buying, curtailments, and a potentially higher price floor 37:59 Mill profitability and the importance of product mix 40:01 Why Western mills produce different sizes and grades 41:55 The Man in the Arena and lessons from trading every day 43:04 Patreon appreciation and a possible AI addition to the show 46:48 Thanks to Scott and closing remarks Timestamps match the original recording. Edits or an added intro will shift them.

Advertiser Fastmarkets RISI Tiranth Amarasinghe Product Marketing Manager Tiranth.Amarasinghe@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com

Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com

Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

AI, data centers and lumber? They're more connected than you might think.

Dustin Jalbert, Economist and Director of Wood Products & Timber at Fastmarkets, joins The Lumber Word to break down a North American lumber market where supply, imports, species and demand are all shifting at the same time.

The conversation digs into falling Canadian and European imports, changing U.S. lumber availability, Southern Pine and western-species substitution, sawmill residuals and what the headline lumber numbers may be missing.

Then Dustin takes us into one of the biggest economic stories affecting housing: the enormous investment flowing into AI and data centers. He explains how that boom can compete with residential construction for capital, labor and resources, influence inflation and interest rates, and ultimately affect housing and lumber demand.

The episode closes with the indicators Dustin believes lumber participants should be watching — and a moving tribute from Matt to longtime lumberman Dick Opperman.

Same industry. Deeper conversations.

TIMELINE 00:00 — Where is the lumber market right now? The crew opens with inventories, falling prices, freight costs and slowing seasonal demand. 05:03 — AI and lumber? A preview of what's coming Dustin explains why seemingly unrelated parts of the economy eventually intersect with lumber. ~08:00 — Canadian duties and the supply question What changing Canadian lumber duties could mean for production, curtailments and SPF returning to the U.S. market. 13:17 — Lumber imports are falling The Fastmarkets data on Canadian and offshore imports and why apparent supply doesn't necessarily equal actual consumption. 15:23 — Canada and Europe disappear from the supply picture Dustin breaks down where billions of board feet have shifted and why the numbers need context. 18:06 — Who benefits from fewer imports? U.S. producers, Doug Fir, Southern Pine and the changing competitive landscape. 19:11 — Is species substitution coming back? Matt discusses SPF, Hem-Fir, Doug Fir and how modern purchasing systems changed the industry's willingness to substitute species. 21:25 — Southern Yellow Pine's changing position Why the SYP market can tell a very different story from the lumber futures screen. 25:05 — Sawmill residuals: why chips and sawdust matter

Dustin explains the economics of residuals and why they're an important part of keeping a sawmill profitable. 34:08 — MAIN EVENT: AI, data centers and housing The conversation turns to the enormous capital flowing into AI infrastructure. 35:34 — Why lumber people need to pay attention to AI Dustin explains how AI investment is contributing to broader economic growth and why that matters to lumber. ~37:00 — Data centers competing with housing Capital, labor and other resources get pulled toward massive data-center projects. 38:42 — Can AI help keep interest rates higher? Dustin connects growth, inflation, Treasury yields, fiscal deficits and the AI investment boom. 40:12 — The AI wealth effect How stock-market gains may be supporting higher-income consumers and helping create a floor under housing demand. 42:00 — Housing affordability & cash buyers Mortgage rates, demographics and why some buyers can still participate despite historically difficult affordability. 44:02 — Work from home changed housing demand Dustin discusses mobility and how remote work has permanently altered where some people can live. 46:03 — What happens next for lumber? Matt summarizes the pressures hitting the industry and the potential for volatility. 47:04 — Remembering Dick Opperman Matt gives a heartfelt tribute to a longtime lumberman, friend and mentor — and a reminder to thank the people who helped you along the way. 49:37 — What lumber people should be watching Dustin discusses closures, operating rates, downstream indicators and other data beyond daily lumber prices. 51:00 — New Fastmarkets indicators & market sentiment A look at new tools designed to better understand where market participants think conditions may be heading. 52:03 — Closing thoughts with Dustin

Advertiser

Fastmarkets RISI Tiranth Amarasinghe Product Marketing Manager Tiranth.Amarasinghe@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Guest: Dustin Jalbert Economist/ Director, Wood Products and Timber Fastmarkets dustin.jalbert@fastmarkets.com

Show Contacts:

Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

Russ Taylor of Russ Taylor Global returns to The Lumber Word for a deep dive into one of the most fascinating lumber markets in years. The crew discusses shrinking North American production, tightening inventories, Canadian export trends, Southern Pine pricing, mill profitability, tariffs, transportation, and why supply—not demand—continues to drive prices. With production capacity permanently removed across North America and limited ability to quickly restart mills, the panel explores whether higher prices are here to stay into late 2026. If you trade, manufacture, distribute, or simply follow the lumber industry, this episode delivers market intelligence you won't want to miss.

00:00 – Soccer banter before shifting into lumber markets.

02:00 – Current SPF and Southern Pine market conditions and regional pricing.

08:00 – Russ Taylor reviews Canadian production and export data.

15:00 – Mill profitability, duties, tariffs and North American cost structures.

21:00 – Why supply constraints are outweighing demand.

28:00 – Southern Pine production, logistics and trucking challenges.

34:00 – Wood chip markets, pulp demand and byproduct economics.

35:30 – 30-, 60- and 90-day market outlook and pricing expectations.

41:00 – Canadian shipments, tariff timing and closing market outlook.

Guest: Russ Taylor

WWW.russtaylorglobal.com

Advertiser

Fastmarkets RISI

Tiranth Amarasinghe

Product Marketing Manager

Tiranth.Amarasinghe@fastmarkets.com

The lumber market has cooled off — but has it found a bottom?

This week on The Lumber Word, Ashley, Gregg, Matt and Charles break down a market where you can seemingly “sell as much lumber as you want and not make any money.” Eastern SPF has taken a serious haircut, studs are showing signs of life, Southern Pine has firmed from its lows, and low inventories throughout the supply chain could make the next move happen fast.

The crew digs into SPF, Southern Pine, Doug Fir, studs, 2x4 and 2x6, where real business is trading, and whether the recent bounce is the beginning of something — or just another short-lived rally in a seasonally softer second half.

They also tackle the bigger picture: ugly housing data, mortgage rates, Treasury debt buybacks, CME futures versus cash, forward Q4 business, and what potentially opening more federal land to logging could mean for western sawmills and timber owners.

But the real conversation is about risk.

Why are people selling forward business below acceptable risk? When should you walk away from an order? Is the market already too short? And after a strong first half of 2026, should traders be shrinking inventory and waiting for the next real opportunity?

Matt sums it up: don’t buy or sell in a panic. Charles warns against the market’s “false sense of security.” And the crew debates whether every rally between now and year-end may be an opportunity to sell.

Less inventory. Less risk. Better decisions. And don’t sell the bottom.

Another unfiltered hour of lumber markets, trading strategy, housing, futures and plenty of Lumber Word banter.

Advertiser

Fastmarkets RISI

Tiranth Amarasinghe

Product Marketing Manager

Tiranth.Amarasinghe@fastmarkets.com

www.fastmarkets.com

Show Contacts:

Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com

Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com

Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com

Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

er market has cooled off — but has it found a bottom?

This week on The Lumber Word, Ashley, Gregg, Matt and Charles break down a market where you can seemingly “sell as much lumber as you want and not make any money.” Eastern SPF has taken a serious haircut, studs are showing signs of life, Southern Pine has firmed from its lows, and low inventories throughout the supply chain could make the next move happen fast.

The crew digs into SPF, Southern Pine, Doug Fir, studs, 2x4 and 2x6, where real business is trading, and whether the recent bounce is the beginning of something — or just another short-lived rally in a seasonally softer second half.

They also tackle the bigger picture: ugly housing data, mortgage rates, Treasury debt buybacks, CME futures versus cash, forward Q4 business, and what potentially opening more federal land to logging could mean for western sawmills and timber owners.

But the real conversation is about risk.

Why are people selling forward business below acceptable risk? When should you walk away from an order? Is the market already too short? And after a strong first half of 2026, should traders be shrinking inventory and waiting for the next real opportunity?

Matt sums it up: don’t buy or sell in a panic. Charles warns against the market’s “false sense of security.” And the crew debates whether every rally between now and year-end may be an opportunity to sell.

Less inventory. Less risk. Better decisions. And don’t sell the bottom.

Another unfiltered hour of lumber markets, trading strategy, housing, futures and plenty of Lumber Word banter.

Advertiser

Fastmarkets RISI

Tiranth Amarasinghe

Product Marketing Manager

Tiranth.Amarasinghe@fastmarkets.com

www.fastmarkets.com

Show Contacts:

Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com

Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com

Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com

Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

The lumber market is moving plenty of volume—but not necessarily going anywhere. This week, Ashley, Gregg and Charles are joined by Bart Charles to break down a market that is strongly sideways. The crew digs into Spruce, Hem-Fir and Southern Yellow Pine, the growing opportunity in forward pricing, tight supply in key items, and why getting aggressively long or short could be a mistake right now.

With futures offering opportunities to lock in Q1 business, limited production keeping a floor under prices, and housing demand still fighting affordability, the question becomes: Where is the next real opportunity in lumber?

Timeline

00:00 Bart Charles joins the show

01:49 Housing, existing-home inventory & demand

04:18 Is the lumber market “strongly sideways”?

06:19 Coastal Hem-Fir vs. Inland pricing

09:52 Breaking down Hem-Fir and Spruce

13:54 Southern Yellow Pine market update

15:13 Diesel prices, trucking & freight costs

17:03 Where does the lumber market go from here?

19:24 Gregg: The market is “sharply sideways”

21:05 Forward pricing & futures opportunities

23:01 Are buyers willing to pay Q1 premiums?

29:48 Supply reductions, demand & price risk

31:25 Mortgage rates and housing affordability

32:33 Tight inventory and replacement costs

34:28 Are traders still short lumber?

35:09 Short opportunities in Southern Pine

37:03 “Sharply Sideways” becomes the episode theme

39:33 Why getting too long—or too short—could hurt

39:51 Locking in Q1 margins

40:15 Why there’s no good inventory hedge right now

41:12 The “O’Hare Hedge”

Advertiser

Fastmarkets RISI

Tiranth Amarasinghe

Product Marketing Manager

Tiranth.Amarasinghe@fastmarkets.com

www.fastmarkets.com

Show Contacts:

Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com

Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com

Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com

Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

Guest

Bart Charles

BCharles@shamrockbm.com

The lumber market is heading into Q4 with an unusual setup: inventories across the supply chain appear extremely lean, yet buyers still aren't willing to take much risk.

In Episode #183, Ashley, Matt, Gregg and Charles dig into what's actually trading versus published prices, growing price disparities between mills, tightening truck availability, rail issues and the increasingly important role of freight. The group also breaks down housing starts, builder headwinds, interest rates and what declining demand could mean for mill production and lumber prices into year-end.

With 2x4 looking increasingly vulnerable while several other items remain historically expensive, the conversation turns to the real question for Q4: What should you own, what should you sell, and where is the opportunity?

00:00 Housing & the Q4 Setup

02:03 Lumber Inventories Running Low

04:03 Less Lumber Than Last Year?

06:06 The Hedging Problem

08:04 Trucking Gets Ugly Again

11:07 Hem-Fir, SPF & Real Prices

13:05 Futures vs. Cash

14:23 Huge Mill Price Disparities

15:37 Are Contract Buyers Overpaying?

16:24 Southern Pine Pricing

19:04 Freight Becomes the Wild Card

22:00 Hem-Fir vs. SPF

24:13 What Changes This Market?

28:20 Rates & Housing Affordability

30:39 Are Builders Slowing Down?

32:04 The Bearish Q4 Case

34:25 Navigating Q4

35:28 Where Opportunities Still Exist

36:21 Apathy Defines the Market

36:39 What to Own & What to Sell

38:06 Marry, Date or Dump

39:03 Where Pine Prices Could Go

39:44 Final Thoughts

Advertiser

Fastmarkets RISI

Tiranth Amarasinghe

Product Marketing Manager

Tiranth.Amarasinghe@fastmarkets.com

www.fastmarkets.com

Show Contacts:

Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com

Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com

Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com

Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

What goes into a Random Lengths lumber price assessment?

Mary Hansen of Fastmarkets Random Lengths joins The Lumber Word for a behind-the-scenes look at some of the methodology behind lumber market reporting. Mary explains the difference between a reporter and an economist, how market information is gathered through multiple channels, why confirmed transactions carry weight, and how volume, timing and market context factor into an assessment.

We also dig into some of the Random Lengths data and tools subscribers may not realize they're already getting — including European 2x4's; spruce pricing, Southern Pine Prime adders, historical data, dashboard pricing and alerts — plus what Mary is currently hearing across the lumber market.

Same industry. Deeper conversations.

TIMELINE

00:00 — Meet Mary Hansen of Fastmarkets Random Lengths Mary's path from journalism to mortgages and eventually commodity reporting. 05:28 — What does a Random Lengths reporter actually do? Mary explains her markets, reporting days and the process of gathering market information. 07:25 — Reporter vs. economist Why reporting and assessing today's market is very different from forecasting where prices are going. 09:08 — How the Random Lengths methodology works Confirmed transactions, volume, recency, discounts, one-off trades and the hierarchy of market information. 13:05 — Turning all that information into assessments How Mary organizes the data, works through individual items and coordinates with other reporters. 16:04 — Inside a major Random Lengths reporting day What happens behind the scenes as the team works toward publication. 29:30 — What Random Lengths subscribers may be missing Ashley starts digging into information that's already available but may be overlooked. 29:52 — European 2x4 16' spruce pricing Where to find the European spruce assessment and why it matters to North American traders. 32:17 — Southern Pine Prime adders & new assessments Mary points out another piece of market data hiding in plain sight. 35:45 — Using the Fastmarkets dashboard Historical prices, exports, charts and ways subscribers can use the online data. 36:45 — Prices can hit the dashboard before the PDF A useful discovery for anyone waiting for the traditional Random Lengths publication. 40:05 — What else comes with Random Lengths? The broader suite of reports, analysis, international coverage, forecasts and market information.

42:52 — Daily Southern Yellow Pine pricing & alerts Using the dashboard and email alerts to follow daily SYP pricing. 44:45 — What Mary is hearing in today's lumber market Mill discipline, freight and diesel costs, U.S.–Canada trade and just-in-time buying. 47:08 — The relationship side of the lumber business What surprised Mary most after entering the industry.

Advertiser

Fastmarkets RISI Tiranth Amarasinghe Product Marketing Manager Tiranth.Amarasinghe@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Guest: Mary Hansen Editorial Team Leader Fastmarkets Mary.Hansen@fastmarkets.com

Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com