The lumber market is sending mixed signals. Buyers are keeping inventories lean, mills are struggling to maintain profitability, and housing demand continues to disappoint. Yet lumber is still moving, and certain products are commanding surprising premiums.

This week on The Lumber Word, Ashley, Gregg, and Charles welcome back Mike Logelin of Gulf Coast Shelter for an unfiltered discussion of the North American lumber market heading into the final months of 2026.

From Southern Yellow Pine versus SPF pricing and mill breakevens to weak housing starts, construction labor shortages, and the challenge of making money while holding inventory, the group digs into what buyers, sellers, and traders are experiencing firsthand.

They also debate CME lumber futures, contango, delivery economics, the lack of liquidity in Southern Pine futures, and whether regional basis risk makes effective hedging harder than it should be. As Gregg puts it: “The only positive that I can find right now is how negative everyone is.”

Is extreme pessimism a sign of a turning point—or is there more pain ahead? Tune in for market insight, honest disagreement, and a few laughs.

00:00 Introduction and Mike Logelin returns

01:10 Southern Yellow Pine market conditions

03:20 Mill costs, breakevens, and production curtailments

05:25 Housing starts, permits, and completions

06:00 Construction labor shortages and builder slowdowns

09:45 Panelization, technology, and housing affordability

14:55 SPF pricing and buyer’s remorse

18:40 Southern Pine replacing SPF in certain markets

20:10 Lumber futures, cash pricing, and delivery economics

22:20 Lumber production and demand trends

26:20 Contango, backwardation, and the CME contract

29:20 Hedging when margins disappear

32:25 Market liquidity and distributor profitability

34:25 EFP opportunities and Southern Pine futures

38:00 Regional basis and Southern Pine futures liquidity

41:50 Bearish sentiment and the lumber market outlook

43:40 European lumber imports and freight concerns

45:15 Closing remarks

Lumber prices are soft—but the demand picture may surprise you. Scott Hall of Matheus Lumber joins The Lumber Word crew to explain why his company’s lumber volume has held relatively steady, where multifamily business is growing, and what customers are already booking for 2027.

Ashley Boeckholt, Gregg Riley, Matt Beymer, and Charles discuss whether SPF, US Species and SYP are finding a bottom, how mill curtailments may be supporting prices, and why freight remains a major challenge. Scott shares how he manages inventory against future commitments, why buying too far ahead can add costs, and what’s driving Texas builders toward Southern Yellow Pine studs. The conversation also covers tight construction financing, the outlook for housing demand, and a key question: has supply fallen fast enough to keep weak demand from pushing lumber prices much lower?

Episode timeline 00:00 Welcome and the first Patreon Insiders livestream 01:09 Lumber market overview: seasonal weakness and discounted cash prices 02:37 Spruce outlook: mill economics and potential curtailments 04:51 Southern Yellow Pine: freight and regional price differences 08:32 Meet Scott Hall of Matheus Lumber 10:27 Multifamily demand: steady volume and shifting regional activity 13:23 Booking 2027 projects and the risks of pricing too far ahead 16:02 How builders buy lumber—and how Scott manages inventory 19:19 Inside storage: protecting lumber and panels 20:51 Species switching: Southern Yellow Pine versus Douglas fir studs 22:16 Finger-jointed studs: pricing, availability, and alternatives 25:23 Western lumber update: is Douglas fir finding a bottom? 27:03 Gregg’s bottom call on spruce 2x4s 27:53 Homebuilder pressures and financing structures 30:24 Multifamily financing: contractors putting equity into projects 31:49 Has housing demand bottomed? The outlook into 2027 36:22 Q4 buying, curtailments, and a potentially higher price floor 37:59 Mill profitability and the importance of product mix 40:01 Why Western mills produce different sizes and grades 41:55 The Man in the Arena and lessons from trading every day 43:04 Patreon appreciation and a possible AI addition to the show 46:48 Thanks to Scott and closing remarks Timestamps match the original recording. Edits or an added intro will shift them.

Advertiser Fastmarkets RISI Tiranth Amarasinghe Product Marketing Manager Tiranth.Amarasinghe@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com

Show Contacts: Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com

Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

AI, data centers and lumber? They're more connected than you might think.

Dustin Jalbert, Economist and Director of Wood Products & Timber at Fastmarkets, joins The Lumber Word to break down a North American lumber market where supply, imports, species and demand are all shifting at the same time.

The conversation digs into falling Canadian and European imports, changing U.S. lumber availability, Southern Pine and western-species substitution, sawmill residuals and what the headline lumber numbers may be missing.

Then Dustin takes us into one of the biggest economic stories affecting housing: the enormous investment flowing into AI and data centers. He explains how that boom can compete with residential construction for capital, labor and resources, influence inflation and interest rates, and ultimately affect housing and lumber demand.

The episode closes with the indicators Dustin believes lumber participants should be watching — and a moving tribute from Matt to longtime lumberman Dick Opperman.

Same industry. Deeper conversations.

TIMELINE 00:00 — Where is the lumber market right now? The crew opens with inventories, falling prices, freight costs and slowing seasonal demand. 05:03 — AI and lumber? A preview of what's coming Dustin explains why seemingly unrelated parts of the economy eventually intersect with lumber. ~08:00 — Canadian duties and the supply question What changing Canadian lumber duties could mean for production, curtailments and SPF returning to the U.S. market. 13:17 — Lumber imports are falling The Fastmarkets data on Canadian and offshore imports and why apparent supply doesn't necessarily equal actual consumption. 15:23 — Canada and Europe disappear from the supply picture Dustin breaks down where billions of board feet have shifted and why the numbers need context. 18:06 — Who benefits from fewer imports? U.S. producers, Doug Fir, Southern Pine and the changing competitive landscape. 19:11 — Is species substitution coming back? Matt discusses SPF, Hem-Fir, Doug Fir and how modern purchasing systems changed the industry's willingness to substitute species. 21:25 — Southern Yellow Pine's changing position Why the SYP market can tell a very different story from the lumber futures screen. 25:05 — Sawmill residuals: why chips and sawdust matter

Dustin explains the economics of residuals and why they're an important part of keeping a sawmill profitable. 34:08 — MAIN EVENT: AI, data centers and housing The conversation turns to the enormous capital flowing into AI infrastructure. 35:34 — Why lumber people need to pay attention to AI Dustin explains how AI investment is contributing to broader economic growth and why that matters to lumber. ~37:00 — Data centers competing with housing Capital, labor and other resources get pulled toward massive data-center projects. 38:42 — Can AI help keep interest rates higher? Dustin connects growth, inflation, Treasury yields, fiscal deficits and the AI investment boom. 40:12 — The AI wealth effect How stock-market gains may be supporting higher-income consumers and helping create a floor under housing demand. 42:00 — Housing affordability & cash buyers Mortgage rates, demographics and why some buyers can still participate despite historically difficult affordability. 44:02 — Work from home changed housing demand Dustin discusses mobility and how remote work has permanently altered where some people can live. 46:03 — What happens next for lumber? Matt summarizes the pressures hitting the industry and the potential for volatility. 47:04 — Remembering Dick Opperman Matt gives a heartfelt tribute to a longtime lumberman, friend and mentor — and a reminder to thank the people who helped you along the way. 49:37 — What lumber people should be watching Dustin discusses closures, operating rates, downstream indicators and other data beyond daily lumber prices. 51:00 — New Fastmarkets indicators & market sentiment A look at new tools designed to better understand where market participants think conditions may be heading. 52:03 — Closing thoughts with Dustin

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Fastmarkets RISI Tiranth Amarasinghe Product Marketing Manager Tiranth.Amarasinghe@fastmarkets.com www.fastmarkets.com Guest: Dustin Jalbert Economist/ Director, Wood Products and Timber Fastmarkets dustin.jalbert@fastmarkets.com

Show Contacts:

Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com