Recorded during Montreal Wood Convention week with Kip Fotheringham, this episode breaks down a confusing but strong lumber market. Truck demand is hot, rail is lagging, and inventories are being drawn down while big buyers stay just-in-time. Euro supply is tightening, tariffs remain a wildcard, and mills still aren’t making money—keeping supply in check. The big question: Is this market about to roll over… or keep grinding higher?

0:00 – Market confusion + SYP volatility

2:00 – Truck vs rail market split

4:00 – Inventory drawdown strategy

6:00 – SPF strength + tight supply

8:00 – Euro supply dropping off

12:00 – Tariffs (AR6 → AR7) breakdown

15:00 – Mills still losing money

18:00 – Logistics driving everything

25:00 – Macro + economy check

27:00 – SYP gaining market share

38:00 – Futures shifting (contango → tighter)

46:00 – Just-in-time buyers vs distributors

Guest

Kip Fotheringham

kip@telus.net

Advertiser

Fastmarkets RISI

Dustin Jalbert

Senior Economist Wood Products

djalbert@fastmarkets.com

www.fastmarkets.com

Show Contacts:

Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com

Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com

Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com

Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

Ashley, Gregg, Matt, and Charles are joined by Brian Wesbury, Chief Economist at First Trust Advisors, a bestselling author, and one of the most sought-after voices in macroeconomics today. When markets get noisy, Brian’s the guy cutting through it with data and conviction. The crew dives into the macro forces shaping lumber—from government spending and the “K-shaped” economy to housing completions, freight spikes, and regional demand shifts. They break down why affordability is still broken, what’s driving trucking chaos, and whether strong Southern demand can carry the market forward. Plus—how AI, migration trends, and policy decisions could reshape housing, labor, and the broader economy. If you want to understand where lumber demand is heading (and why), this one delivers.

Timeline

00:00 – Brian Wesbury joins + macro setup 03:30 – Taxes, migration & policy shifts 08:30 – Government spending vs affordability 14:00 – Housing completions & demand outlook 16:00 – Freight spikes & supply chain issues 18:30 – Southern vs Northern demand 24:00 – The “K-shaped” economy explained 30:00 – Growth, incentives & middle class 41:00 – AI, jobs & future risks

Guest

Brian S. Wesbury

Chief Economist / First Trust

www.ftportfolios.com

Advertiser

Fastmarkets RISI

Dustin Jalbert

Senior Economist Wood Products

djalbert@fastmarkets.com

www.fastmarkets.com

Show Contacts:

Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com

Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com

Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com

Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com

Holy Week edition with a major announcement—The Lumber Word is going subscription for people wanting to listen first! The crew breaks down what that means, why timing matters in a 24–48-hour data market, and then dives headfirst into one of the wildest setups we’ve seen: freight chaos, pine vs. spruce divergence, and a market that might still have legs… or be closer to the edge than you think.

0:00 – Holy Week kickoff + big shift to subscriber early access (no ads, faster intel)

4:00 – Russ Taylor debate, AD/CVD reality, and why nothing’s changing soon

9:00 – Freight explosion: rail surcharges + trucking volatility crushing margins

13:00 – Back-to-back trading vs. real value in a chaotic logistics market

14:00 – Pine vs. Spruce: why SYP ripped and SPF lagged hard

20:00 – Contracts vs. spot market—are they distorting price discovery?

29:00 – Freight as the real driver of the pine rally (canary in the coal mine)

33:00 – Bull market or head fake? Supply cuts vs. pipeline restock debate

35:00 – “Seller arrogance” = warning sign of a potential top

40:00 – Buyers scrambling to rebuild inventory + hot items emerging fast

Freight is the hidden force, Pine led the charge, and now the market’s walking a tightrope between a continued grind higher… or the early signs of a summer reset.

Advertiser

Fastmarkets RISI

Dustin Jalbert

Senior Economist Wood Products

djalbert@fastmarkets.com

www.fastmarkets.com

Show Contacts:

Gregg Riley: Gregg@sitkainc.com

Charles DeLaTorre: cdelatorre@ifpwood.com

Matt Beymer: mattbeymer@hamptonlumber.com

Ashley Boeckholt: ashley@sitkainc.com