Why do people with the least experience often feel the most confident - while true expertise comes with doubt? In this episode of Circuit Breaker: Rewiring Your Decisions, we explore the Dunning-Kruger Effect - the cognitive bias that causes people with limited knowledge or skill to overestimate their ability, while more competent individuals feel less confident.

Discover how gaps in self-awareness distort confidence, why learning can initially make us feel worse before we get better, and how to spot when confidence is coming from ignorance rather than understanding.

Studies and links:

Unskilled and Unaware of It: How Difficulties in Recognizing One's Own Incompetence Lead to Inflated Self-Assessments | Research Gate | Journal of Personality and Social Psychology (PDF) Unskilled and Unaware of It: How Difficulties in Recognizing One's Own Incompetence Lead to Inflated Self-Assessments

How the Dunning-Kruger Effect works | Very Well Mind The Dunning-Kruger Effect: An Overestimation of Capability

Why does making even small progress feel so motivating — and why do setbacks drain us so quickly? In this episode of Circuit Breaker: Rewiring Your Decisions, we explore the progress principle — the idea that consistent, meaningful progress is one of the strongest drivers of motivation, engagement, and well-being. When we feel like we’re moving forward, our confidence grows; when progress stalls, motivation collapses.

Discover how recognising small wins can transform performance, persistence, and morale — and how to structure your goals to keep momentum working in your favour.

Studies and links:

The Progress Principle | Psychology Fanatic Understanding the Progress Principle: Small Wins for Big Success - Psychology Fanatic

The Progress Principle: Using Small Wins to Ignite Joy, Engagement, and Creativity at Work | Teresa Amabile and Steven Kramer (2011)

Why do we seek out information that agrees with us — and ignore what doesn’t? In this episode of Circuit Breaker: Rewiring Your Decisions, we explore confirmation bias — the tendency to favour evidence that supports our existing beliefs while dismissing or downplaying anything that challenges them.

Discover how to recognise when you’re searching for reassurance instead of truth — and how to challenge your own thinking before it locks you into the wrong conclusion.

Studies and Links:

On the failure to eliminate hypotheses in a conceptual task | Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology | Peter Wason wason-qjep1960.pdf

Cognitive Biases and Brain Biology Help Explain Why Facts Don't Change Minds | UConn Today

Cognitive Biases and Brain Biology Help Explain Why Facts Don't Change Minds - UConn Today