What does it really mean for a president to be “great,” and what do our answers reveal about the values we bring to history?

In this episode of History of the Future, hosts Jonathan Hofer and Caleb Petitt examine the often subjective world of presidential rankings and the criteria we use to judge America’s leaders. They explore why presidents who take decisive action are often celebrated, even when that action produces lasting institutional or constitutional damage, while presidents who exercise restraint can be overlooked.

From reassessing Franklin D. Roosevelt’s legacy and the consequences of his policies to making the case for Jimmy Carter as an underrated reformer, they challenge some of the assumptions behind conventional rankings. The episode also considers how wars, inherited circumstances, and long-term consequences should factor into presidential assessments, offering a different framework for thinking about leadership, historical reputation, and the future.

Book Reference: The New Deal's War on The Bill of Rights by David T. Beito

David Beito’s exposé on the lengths to which FDR and New Dealers like Senators (and future Supreme Court justices) Hugo Black and Sherman Minton went to suppress freedom of speech, privacy, and civil rights; and the degree to which these efforts have been concealed by pro-FDR and New Deal propagandists

What You Will Learn:

• Why presidential rankings often reward "activity" and crisis leadership over restraint
• The case for reassessing Jimmy Carter, whose deregulation efforts and Fed pick Paul Volcker quietly fixed the economy long after he left office
• How FDR's celebrated legacy obscures a track record of court-packing attempts, Japanese internment, and surveillance state expansion
• Why wars of choice should count against a president
• The "political time" framework for understanding how much of a president's success or failure is inherited versus self-made
• How to build a more consistent ranking system by prioritizing constitutional restraint, institutional respect, and long-term consequences

Jonathan Hofer is a Research Fellow at the Independent Institute, focusing on public policy, political science, privacy, and surveillance. With expertise spanning technology regulation, economic policy, and historical analysis, he brings a multidisciplinary lens to understanding how emerging technologies like AI reshape society.

Caleb Petitt is a Research Fellow at the Independent Institute with a background in economic history. He specializes in analyzing how technological disruption reshapes labor markets and economic growth, drawing on historical parallels from the Industrial Revolution to contemporary technological shifts.

Episode Resources:

• Jonathan Hofer on LinkedIn
• Caleb Petitt on LinkedIn
• History of the Future on Apple Podcasts
• History of the Future on Spotify
• History of the Future on YouTube

• (00:00:02) - Intro and Trump's Presidential Tier List
• (00:04:08) - What Ranking Presidents Really Reveals
• (00:07:49) - Yarvin, Power, and Criteria for Good Presidents
• (00:10:17) - Rabbit Hole: Which President Would Be Most Offended
• (00:14:04) - Overrated vs Underrated: FDR and Jimmy Carter
• (00:19:27) - Carter's Legacy and Image vs Substance
• (00:20:50) - Man vs Office: Jefferson, Madison, and War Legacies
• (00:25:54) - Independent Institute Sponsor Break
• (00:26:27) - Taft, Teddy Roosevelt, and the Gilded Age Streak
• (00:29:48) - Political Time, Inherited Crises, and Modern Debt
• (00:35:26) - Incentives, Rally Effects, and Advice for Young Voters
• (00:42:07) - Headline Segment: Judging Trump's Economic Legacy
• (00:44:37) - Balancing Competing Criteria in Rankings
• (00:47:48) - Next Episode Preview and Sign-off

What if the political turmoil we see today isn't unprecedented, but part of a much longer American pattern?

In this episode of History of the Future, hosts Jonathan Hofer and Caleb Petitt explore six historical crises that echo contemporary debates around corruption, state-federal power, elections, presidential transparency, tariffs, and territorial expansion. From the Crédit Mobilier railroad scandal and the Nullification Crisis to the contested election that ended Reconstruction, Woodrow Wilson's concealed illness, and the Smoot-Hawley tariffs, they examine how political incentives and power struggles have repeatedly produced consequences that outlast the crises themselves.

The episode also explores how territorial expansion intensified America's divisions over slavery and helped set the stage for the Civil War. The result is a historical perspective on why today's crises can feel unprecedented, and what history can teach us about them.

What You Will Learn:

• Why political corruption today looks suspiciously like the railroad schemes of the 1870s
• How state-federal conflicts have nearly triggered armed conflict without a single shot fired
• The corrupt bargain that ended Reconstruction and shaped the next century
• Why presidential health cover-ups aren't modern
• How tariff wars have sparked actual economic damage before
• Why territorial expansion almost always comes with hidden costs

Jonathan Hofer is a Research Fellow at the Independent Institute, focusing on public policy, political science, privacy, and surveillance. With expertise spanning technology regulation, economic policy, and historical analysis, he brings a multidisciplinary lens to understanding how emerging technologies like AI reshape society.

Caleb Petitt is a Research Associate at the Independent Institute with a background in economic history. He specializes in analyzing how technological disruption reshapes labor markets and economic growth, drawing on historical parallels from the Industrial Revolution to contemporary technological shifts.

Episode Resources:

• Jonathan Hofer on LinkedIn
• Caleb Petitt on LinkedIn
• History of the Future on Apple Podcasts
• History of the Future on Spotify
• History of the Future on YouTube

• (00:00:02) - Intro and movie chat
• (00:01:38) - Episode theme: historical echoes of today's politics
• (00:02:29) - Political corruption: Trump meme coin debacle
• (00:06:00) - Political corruption: Credit Mobilier scandal
• (00:10:30) - State vs federal authority: Texas razor wire standoff
• (00:14:04) - State vs federal authority: Nullification crisis of 1832
• (00:17:55) - Independent Institute sponsor break
• (00:18:48) - Party manipulation: 2020 election aftermath and January 6th
• (00:20:42) - Party manipulation: The corrupt bargain of 1877
• (00:26:31) - Voter suppression and telegram subpoenas in 1876 election
• (00:28:01) - Presidential health cover-ups: Biden's cognitive health
• (00:29:05) - Presidential health cover-ups: Woodrow Wilson's stroke
• (00:32:11) - Modern congressional health concealment examples
• (00:32:51) - Tariffs: Liberation Day tariffs
• (00:34:04) - Tariffs: Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act
• (00:37:10) - Territorial expansion: Greenland and Guantanamo Bay
• (00:40:08) - Territorial expansion: Polk and the Mexican-American War
• (00:42:44) - Closing and next episode teaser

What if the technology making your phone "smart" is actually making you vulnerable to mass surveillance?

In this episode of History of the Future, hosts Jonathan Hofer and Caleb Petitt examine how modern geofence warrants are reviving a centuries-old conflict over government surveillance. They trace the origins of the Fourth Amendment’s protection against “general warrants” to colonial America and the landmark 1761 case involving John Wilkes, showing how fears of broad, suspicionless searches echo in today’s digital world.

The hosts explain how geofence warrants allow police to obtain location data from every device within a defined area, potentially sweeping innocent people into criminal investigations before identifying any actual suspect. They also explore why smartphones make opting out of location tracking increasingly difficult, while challenging the outdated third-party doctrine and debating the “bailment theory” of digital privacy.

What You Will Learn:

• Why "general warrants" terrified the American founders
• The John Wilkes story
• How geofence warrants actually work in three sketchy steps
• Why turning off location tracking essentially breaks your smartphone
• The "bailment theory" of privacy: why your data is like a valet-parked car
• How to think critically about any new surveillance tech

Jonathan Hofer is a Research Fellow at the Independent Institute, focusing on public policy, political science, privacy, and surveillance. With expertise spanning technology regulation, economic policy, and historical analysis, he brings a multidisciplinary lens to understanding how emerging technologies like AI reshape society.

Caleb Petitt is a Research Associate at the Independent Institute with a background in economic history. He specializes in analyzing how technological disruption reshapes labor markets and economic growth, drawing on historical parallels from the Industrial Revolution to contemporary technological shifts.

Episode Resources:

• Jonathan Hofer on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jonathan-hofer-a0b14219a
• Caleb Petitt on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/caleb-petitt-111126187
• Independent Institute URL for the podcast page: https://www.independent.org/podcast/history-of-the-future
• Independent Institute Website: https://www.independent.org

• (00:00:02) - Historical of the Future
• (00:01:19) - The Supreme Court's Decision on Geofence Watches
• (00:03:25) - Google vs. Virginia Police
• (00:05:08) - NSA's Surveillance of Americans
• (00:06:46) - General Wills vs. Massachusetts
• (00:12:01) - William Wilkes on the Fourth Amendment
• (00:18:54) - Geofence Warrant and General Waivers
• (00:22:35) - Do You Own Your Data?
• (00:33:14) - Geofence warrants: Should They Be Illegal?
• (00:37:10) - Geofence: A Turning Point
• (00:40:42) - History of the Future