What does it really mean for a president to be “great,” and what do our answers reveal about the values we bring to history?

In this episode of History of the Future, hosts Jonathan Hofer and Caleb Petitt examine the often subjective world of presidential rankings and the criteria we use to judge America’s leaders. They explore why presidents who take decisive action are often celebrated, even when that action produces lasting institutional or constitutional damage, while presidents who exercise restraint can be overlooked.

From reassessing Franklin D. Roosevelt’s legacy and the consequences of his policies to making the case for Jimmy Carter as an underrated reformer, they challenge some of the assumptions behind conventional rankings. The episode also considers how wars, inherited circumstances, and long-term consequences should factor into presidential assessments, offering a different framework for thinking about leadership, historical reputation, and the future.

Book Reference: The New Deal's War on The Bill of Rights by David T. Beito

David Beito’s exposé on the lengths to which FDR and New Dealers like Senators (and future Supreme Court justices) Hugo Black and Sherman Minton went to suppress freedom of speech, privacy, and civil rights; and the degree to which these efforts have been concealed by pro-FDR and New Deal propagandists

What You Will Learn:

• Why presidential rankings often reward "activity" and crisis leadership over restraint
• The case for reassessing Jimmy Carter, whose deregulation efforts and Fed pick Paul Volcker quietly fixed the economy long after he left office
• How FDR's celebrated legacy obscures a track record of court-packing attempts, Japanese internment, and surveillance state expansion
• Why wars of choice should count against a president
• The "political time" framework for understanding how much of a president's success or failure is inherited versus self-made
• How to build a more consistent ranking system by prioritizing constitutional restraint, institutional respect, and long-term consequences

Jonathan Hofer is a Research Fellow at the Independent Institute, focusing on public policy, political science, privacy, and surveillance. With expertise spanning technology regulation, economic policy, and historical analysis, he brings a multidisciplinary lens to understanding how emerging technologies like AI reshape society.

Caleb Petitt is a Research Fellow at the Independent Institute with a background in economic history. He specializes in analyzing how technological disruption reshapes labor markets and economic growth, drawing on historical parallels from the Industrial Revolution to contemporary technological shifts.

Episode Resources:

• Jonathan Hofer on LinkedIn
• Caleb Petitt on LinkedIn
• History of the Future on Apple Podcasts
• History of the Future on Spotify
• History of the Future on YouTube

• (00:00:02) - Intro and Trump's Presidential Tier List
• (00:04:08) - What Ranking Presidents Really Reveals
• (00:07:49) - Yarvin, Power, and Criteria for Good Presidents
• (00:10:17) - Rabbit Hole: Which President Would Be Most Offended
• (00:14:04) - Overrated vs Underrated: FDR and Jimmy Carter
• (00:19:27) - Carter's Legacy and Image vs Substance
• (00:20:50) - Man vs Office: Jefferson, Madison, and War Legacies
• (00:25:54) - Independent Institute Sponsor Break
• (00:26:27) - Taft, Teddy Roosevelt, and the Gilded Age Streak
• (00:29:48) - Political Time, Inherited Crises, and Modern Debt
• (00:35:26) - Incentives, Rally Effects, and Advice for Young Voters
• (00:42:07) - Headline Segment: Judging Trump's Economic Legacy
• (00:44:37) - Balancing Competing Criteria in Rankings
• (00:47:48) - Next Episode Preview and Sign-off