Why the Markets Are Pricing AI Wrong | Gavin Baker

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Why the Markets Are Pricing AI Wrong | Gavin Baker

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In this episode of Invest Like the Best, Patrick O'Shaughnessy sits down with Gavin Baker to dissect the intense AI and semiconductor market sell-off of July 2026. Describing the period as "2022 packed into a single month," Gavin explains why public market panic contrasts sharply with the booming fundamentals seen on the ground in Silicon Valley. They dive into the accelerating operating cash flows of hyperscalers, the soaring spot prices for GPUs, and why open-source AI models are actually driving massive infrastructure demand. Gavin also unpacks the game theory behind Long-Term Agreements (LTAs) in the memory market, NVIDIA's strategic dominance, SpaceX's massive data center ambitions, and the looming regulatory risks for AI compute.

Timestamps:
0:00 Intro
1:17 AI Selloff vs. Fundamentals
10:20 Financing the AI Buildout
18:18 GPU Prices Keep Rising
24:23 Claude Moves Markets
29:01 What Could Break the Thesis
36:59 The Memory Supply War
42:08 Nvidia’s New Playbook
50:14 China and Open Source
61:51 Data Centers and Regulation
71:11 SpaceX and Orbital Compute

#Investing #AI #Semiconductors #Nvidia #StockMarket #Technology #DataCenters #OpenSource #Finance #VentureCapital #nvidia #stocks #sell #stockmarket

Presented by Ramp:
https://ramp.com/invest

Sponsored by Vanta, WorkOS, Rogo, and Ridgeline:
https://www.vanta.com/invest
https://workos.com/
https://rogo.ai/invest
https://www.ridgelineapps.com/

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Patrick O'Shaughnessy is the CEO of Positive Sum. All opinions expressed by Patrick and podcast guests are solely their own and do not reflect the opinion of Positive Sum. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as a basis for investment decisions. Clients of Positive Sum may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this podcast. To learn more, visit psum.vc

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