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National property values dipped another 0.3% in September, extending the softer winter trend across Aotearoa New Zealand. But is the market collapsing, or simply grinding through a long-planned transition?

This week on the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall (back from Rotorua) and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson (dialling in from Hanmer Springs) dissect the September Home Value Index results. They analyse why price declines are broadening into the secondary urban areas, while Christchurch and Hamilton continue to show minor resilience.

The team also makes the case for why property owners should stop anchoring their expectations to the artificial 2021 peak. Kelvin shares our latest analysis showing that only 4% to 5% of properties actually transacted during that brief bubble, and reveals why the 10-year annualised growth rate of 3.2% p.a. reflects the true "new normal" for capital growth - especially in supply-rich markets like Auckland (1.2% p.a.). Finally, they examine the August filled jobs data (+0.2%) and discuss the Treasury’s cautious property updates in the Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update (PREFU).

This week we discuss:

• September HVI Declines: Why national values fell 0.3% (-1.3% YoY) and why the downturn is now broadening into regional markets like New Plymouth, Palmerston North, and Napier.
• Ditching the 2021 Peak Anchor: Why peak-to-trough comparisons are irrelevant for 95% of property owners, and what the 10-year annualised national growth rate of 3.2% tells us about future gains.
• The Auckland Supply Case Study: How the Auckland Unitary Plan transformed the city's housing supply, holding average annual capital growth to just 1.2% over the last decade.
• Labour Market Resilience (+0.2%): Why filled jobs rose in August and how the difference between IRD tax records and the HLFS survey affects the official unemployment rate.
• The Treasury PREFU Briefing: Unpacking the government's cautious house price revisions and what they mean for projected tax revenues.
• Bledisloe & Holiday Catch-ups: Nick's family trip to Rotorua, Kelvin's hot pool retreat in Hanmer Springs, and the looming Bledisloe Cup clash at Eden Park.

🔗 Explore the September Home Value Index: https://www.cotality.com/nz/insights/articles/nz-property-values-fall-for-sixth-straight-month-as-buyers-retain-upper-hand

Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.com

This podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.