The US-Iran agreement is being presented as the end of a war. But the more important story may be what happens after the announcement.

The Strait of Hormuz does not reopen because a president says oil can flow again. It reopens when ships move, crews agree to sail, insurers cover the risk, sanctions lawyers clear the payments, navies secure the route, and energy companies believe the passage is usable.

In this episode, I look at the US-Iran deal not as a clean peace settlement, but as the movement of war into the machinery of global commerce. The missiles may stop, but the risk does not disappear. It moves into insurance premiums, mine clearance, shipping routes, oil waivers, frozen assets, financial incentives, European naval deployments, and the fragile confidence that lets trade resume.

The Strait of Hormuz reveals something larger about the world economy. Globalisation is not abstract. It depends on narrow passages, physical infrastructure, military guarantees, legal permissions, and confidence that can break faster than it can be rebuilt.

A falling oil price can make the crisis look finished. But a market reaction is not the same as a political settlement, and a ceasefire is not the same as restored trust.

Peace, here, means commerce made possible again under armed supervision.

Read more essays and notes on economics, markets, politics, and power at www.wernermouton.com.

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