A year into Trump’s second term, guests examine how India, China, Russia and other big powers are recalibrating strategies in a shifting global order.

2026 has already been marked by significant geopolitical upheaval. US military intervention in Latin America points to a wider trend: the return of a world order shaped by hard power, where rules and international law are increasingly sidelined.

The international landscape is rapidly evolving. But how are other major powers responding? How is this impacting international financial markets?

This episode explores how India, China, Russia and other big powers are changing their strategies in response to this new phase of US foreign policy. Moving beyond the usual focus of what’s happening in Washington, D.C., it examines the perspectives of other key regions and how these shifts are redefining their economic interests, and defence and security agendas.

Guests

• Sara Pantuliano (host), Chief Executive, ODI Global
• H.E. Fatafehi Fakafānua, The Prime Minister of Tonga
• Mr. Manish Singh, Chief Investment Officer Cross Bridge Capital
• Dr Rebecca Nadin, Director of Global Risks and Resilience and The Centre for Geopolitics of Global Change at ODI Global

Related resources

• Trump’s Monroe Doctrine 2.0 redefines great power competition in the Americas - now it's Beijing's move (Insight, ODI Global)
  
  
• The year ahead in global risks: foresight for a world in transition 2026 (Insight, ODI Global)
• The Centre for Geopolitics of Global Change (ODI Global)
  
  
• The Resilient and Sustainable Islands Initiative (ODI Global)

As global leaders gather in Davos later this month amid shrinking aid budgets and hardening geopolitical priorities, development finance is being recast through the language of investment – raising urgent questions about who shapes this new model, who carries the risk, and who benefits.

Development finance is entering a period of profound transition. Traditional aid models are under strain, squeezed by fiscal pressure, political fragmentation and shifting global priorities. In their place, investment-led approaches, from impact investing and blended finance to philanthropic capital and deeper private sector engagement, are gaining prominence as the future of development.

In this episode of Think Change, we examine what this shift looks like in practice. How is capital being deployed across Africa and other emerging markets? What role do micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) play in translating finance into inclusive growth? And how viable is the move from grants to risk-tolerant investment in fragile and underserved contexts?

Experts discuss where impact investing is delivering real outcomes, where expectations may be overstated, and how power, incentives and accountability are shifting as development increasingly speaks the language of capital.

As Davos conversations turn towards mobilising private finance and redefining global cooperation, the episode asks whether investment genuinely deepen development, rather than simply reshaping it in the image of existing markets.

Guests

• Sara Pantuliano (host), Chief Executive, ODI Global
• Amit Bouri, Co-Founder and CEO, Global Impact Investing Network (GIIN)
• Neil Gregory, Senior Advisor to ODI Global's Centre for Private Finance in Development
• Dorothy Nyambi, President and CEO, Mennonite Economic Development Associates (MEDA)

Related resources

• IRIS+
• Impact Principles
• Impact Investor Survey

After a year of extraordinary upheaval, this special episode looks ahead to the forces set to shape 2026. From deep aid cuts and accelerating AI to renewed geopolitical tension, political violence and humanitarian catastrophe, guests explore what a fractured global landscape means for democracy, development and the future of international cooperation.

2025 has tested the resilience of the international system. Aid budgets have been slashed, debt pressures have mounted across low-income countries, and rapid advances in artificial intelligence have outpaced political and regulatory responses. At the same time, political violence, democratic backsliding and public dissent have intensified while humanitarian crises and genocide continue to expose the limits of existing multilateral responses.

Against this backdrop, global power is fragmenting as supply chains are being reshaped, economic nationalism is on the rise, and geopolitical competition is increasingly defining how states engage with one another.

Tune in as we explore how dynamics of technological disruption, economic stress and geopolitical realignment are redefining cooperation and what realistic shifts could help strengthen global governance and collective action as we move into 2026.

Guests

• Sara Pantuliano (host), Chief Executive, ODI Global
• Comfort Ero, CEO, Crisis Group
• Sir Vince Cable, Former Secretary of State for Business and Trade and Distinguished Fellow, ODI Global
• Dr. Urvashi Aneja, Founder, Digital Futures Lab

Related resources

• Donors In A Post-Aid World December 2025 update
• Think Change episode 61: what trends will shape 2025?
• How geopolitical fragmentation is reshaping finance for emerging markets