Welcome to the era of friend shoring and nearshoring. The breakdown of the supply chain during the pandemic highlighted the risk of concentrating your manufacturing base half way around the world. For many years now there have been growing headwinds for China-based exporters. Rising US-China tensions, increased labor costs, and less favorable local policies meant that factory owners needed to consider alternatives. While before that often meant another Asian country like Vietnam or Bangladesh, the passing of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) in 2019 cemented Mexico's role as a key supplier to the US market.

We were fortunate to speak with an expert in this emerging trend, Andrew Hupert. Andrew has a unique background, combining academic understanding of trade, investment and negotiation, with many years living in China and other parts of Asia along with his current focus on how to navigate Mexico's industrial opportunities.

He explains how the focus from Just in Time to Just in Case is shaping the the global logistics industry as well as China's involvement in Mexico.

Andrew Hupert is an accomplished entrepreneur, lecturer, and writer who has over 25 years of international experience. He has lectured and taught courses on cross-cultural negotiation at some of the world’s top business schools such as NYU’s Stern School, Strathclyde University, and Hult International Business School. Now he spends his time in Mexico working with international businesses to improve their North American supply chains, and writing on the future of globalism, cross-culture negotiation, and trends in international supply chains.

Andrew lived in Asia for over 20 years, with over 10 years of direct China experience. His first overseas experience was in the historical Japanese city of Kyoto, but he has also lived and worked in Taipei, Hong Kong, Chiang Mai, Hanoi, and Ho Chi Minh City. He returned to North America in 2021, when he moved to Mexico to assist international firms transition supply chains to Mexico and the US. He is a recognized leader in international negotiation and cross-cultural conflict management.

Andrew has published books, including The Fragile Bridge – Conflict Management in Chinese Business, and regularly writes for well-known sites like China Law Blog, in addition to maintaining his site about North American Strategy Planning.

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E 38 / Cooperation, Competition and Conflict: Scott Moore on US-China relations and Cross-border Threats

The current state of US-China relations is poor to say the least. In addition to concerns over a potential conflict in Taiwan and opposing policies towards the war in Ukraine, we have witnessed a general deterioration in trust and willingness to partner in virtually any sphere. We are seeing a tit-for-tat sanctioning of companies, deemed "unreliable" or a threat to national security and the banning of Chinese app Tik Tok in parts of the US. High level and military-to-military talks are absent as is dialogue on any global issue. How did we get to this point and what path is their forward? To find some answers, join me for an informative discussion with Dr Scott Moore focused on his book, China's Next Act - How Sustainability and Technology are Reshaping China's Rise and the World's Future. Moore does an excellent job of explaining the importance of Public Goods and the importance of US-China relations to the containment of potentially civilization threatening issues. His perspective comes from a career looking at US-China relations through the prism of emerging cross border themes of environmental, technology, and biomedical developments. Having lived in Hong Kong and mainland China, Moore currently leverages his knowledge at the University of Pennsylvania to provide insights and encourage collaboration between various departments. Moore views Authoritarianism, Nationalism, Protectionism in China as the key barriers to achieving cooperation on pressing issues. And he promotes the concept of competition, while not ideal, as a potential useful dynamic to continue to tackle shared challenges.

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Dr. William H. Overholt is a distinguished Asia Expert with five decades of experience in research, analysis, and advisory for leading investment banks, think tanks, government and educational institutions. He is a prolific author with a broad set of knowledge and experience he leverages to bring insights into Asia's complex social and political context. Overholt's assessment of US-China relations is very sober. At the same time, he believes China's growth trajectory is declining and its long-term political structure is not guaranteed. In many ways, the cycle of history continues, something which Overholt has personally witnessed first hand.

Dr. Overholt holds a research position at Harvard's Kennedy School and is Principal of AsiaStrat LLC, a consulting firm. Previously he held the Asia Policy Distinguished Research Chair at RAND's California headquarters and was Director of RAND's Center for Asia Pacific Policy.

During 21 previous years in investment banking, he served as Head of Strategy and Economics at Nomura's regional headquarters in Hong Kong from 1998 to 2001, and as Managing Director and Head of Research at Bank Boston's regional headquarters in Singapore. At Bankers Trust, he ran a country risk team in New York and was regional strategist and Asia research head based in Hong Kong.

At Hudson Institute in the 1970s Overholt directed planning studies for the U.S. Department of Defense, Department of State, National Security Council, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, and Council on International Economic Policy.

Dr. Overholt received his B.A. (magna, 1968) from Harvard and his Master of Philosophy (1970) and Ph.D. (1972) from Yale.

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