In this pre-LBMA conference episode of The Pod of Gold, Nicholas Frappell unpacks the technical and macroeconomic factors putting downward pressure on precious metals.

Following a pull-back of over 100 points since early September, gold is testing daily Ichimoku Cloud support amidst surging US Treasury yields, a resilient US Dollar, and punchy US economic growth data.

Nick breaks down the shift in market sentiment, the latest technical support and resistance levels, positive ETF inflows, and macro crosscurrents, from global bond yield pressure to energy supply shocks in the Middle East.

Key Discussion Points

• The Macro Pressure: A rising US Dollar, elevated Treasury yields (at multi-year highs), and strong US economic data (S&P Flash PMI beats and Atlanta Fed GDP estimates) driving short-term downside headwinds.
• Bond Yield Dynamics: How rising term premia and global sovereign bond sell-offs are impacting interest rate expectations and gold’s non-yielding appeal.
• Technical Setup & Cloud Support: Gold's price action entering the daily Ichimoku Cloud and testing immediate support zones, with Point & Figure targets pointing to near-term downside boundaries.
• Institutional Positioning: Steady ETF inflows accumulating over 56 metric tonnes since early September, contrasting with relatively stable CME managed money length.
• Geopolitical & Energy Shocks: Second-order effects of energy costs, oil pipeline closures, OPEC+ output cuts, and shifting Middle Eastern security relationships.

Timecodes

• (00:00) – Introduction & Spot Market Check (Gold at $1,842.85/oz, Silver at $24.64/oz)
• (01:11) – Macro Drivers: US Dollar strength, Treasuries, and strong PMI data
• (03:32) – US Debt & Term Premia: Sovereign yield dynamics and Treasury communication
• (05:11) – Technical Analysis: Daily Ichimoku Cloud support and Point & Figure targets
• (07:33) – Investor Flows: ETF accumulation vs. CME Managed Money positioning
• (09:18) – Looking Ahead: Energy markets, Middle East dynamics, and previewing the LBMA conference

Resource Intelligence Technical Intercepts

• Daily Cloud Support: Spot gold has entered the daily Ichimoku Cloud, with key short-term support sitting around $1,820/oz to $1,830/oz.
• Weekly Resistance Overhead: The weekly turning line and weekly cloud base continue to trend lower, acting as key resistance levels that gold must break to re-establish a medium-term bull case.
• Point & Figure Downside Targets: Short-term point and figure charts indicate plausible downside targets near $1,800/oz and $1,813/oz, while unfulfilled long-term upside targets remain intact further out.
• ETF Accumulation: Institutional buying via global gold ETFs remains net positive, adding approximately 56 to 57 metric tonnes since the start of September.

Technical Reports: Access Nick Frappell’s institutional chartbooks and monthly analysis at abcrefinery.com/podcast.

• Follow Shae Russell on X: @shaearussell

• Follow Nick Frappell on X: @nick_frappell

In this edition of The Pod of Gold, ABC Refinery’s Global Head of Institutional Markets, Nicholas Frappell examines gold’s sharp retracement following its push toward USD$4,700/oz, US Treasuries, and the impact of interventions by key financial authorities.

Recorded on 2 September 2026, this session discusses sovereign debt stress, yield curve intervention, and central bank reaction functions.

Frappell provides technical analysis on gold’s immediate support zones and Point & Figure upside targets, while evaluating the broader systemic impacts of US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s intervention in long-dated bonds.

The discussion also covers the "Warsh Factor" following Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole address, the resurgence of the global debasement trade, and how escalating military action in the Gulf is driving energy prices and short-dated yields higher.

Key Discussion Points

• Gold market rally and retracement
• US Treasury interventions and yield management
• Technical analysis of gold using cloud and point and figure
• Market sentiment and ETF flows in gold
• Impacts of US and Japanese bond interventions
• Broader implications for global sovereign debt

Timestamps

• (00:00) – Introduction & Spot Market Check
• (01:11) – The Resurgence of the Debasement Trade
• (02:30) – The "Warsh Factor" at Jackson Hole
• (03:50) – Middle East Escalation & Energy Shocks
• (04:50) – Ichimoku Cloud Support & Technical Levels
• (05:34) – Point & Figure Target Analysis
• (06:55) – ETF Inflows & Beleaguered Managed Money
• (08:08) – The Streisand Effect in US Treasuries
• (14:57) – Synchronised Sovereign Debt Stress

• Technical Reports: Access Nick Frappell’s institutional chartbooks and monthly analysis at abcrefinery.com/podcast.
• Follow Shae Russell on X: @shaearussell
• Follow Nick Frappell on X: @nick_frappell

In this edition of The Pod of Gold, ABC Refinery’s Global Head of Institutional Markets, Nicholas Frappell breaks down gold's recent technical rally up to the daily Ichimoku Cloud resistance level.

Recorded on 12 August 2026, this session cuts through retail noise to deliver institutional-grade Resource Intelligence on the primary macroeconomic drivers shaping precious metals.

Frappell provides technical analysis on gold’s immediate resistance barriers and support zones, while evaluating the broader systemic impacts of US intervention in the Japanese yen, evolving ETF flows, and underlying official sector demand.

The discussion also covers US employment indicators, purchasing power parity (PPP) currency valuation frameworks, and how persistent geopolitical friction in the Middle East continues to influence commodity markets.

• Overview of recent spot gold price action, immediate market catalysts, and the technical setup following the latest price rebound.
• Evaluating the market reaction to US non-farm payrolls data, labour market trends, and shifting Federal Reserve rate expectations.
• Tracking institutional ETF capital movements alongside steady sovereign central bank accumulation.
• Mapping Ichimoku Cloud resistance, technical targets, and key support levels holding the current structural floor.
• Analysing direct foreign exchange market intervention, purchasing power parity (PPP) models, and foreign exchange spillover into commodities.
• Assessing long-term macroeconomic trends, inflation expectations, and monetary policy trajectories impacting gold.
• Reviewing Middle Eastern headline risks, oil price volatility, and portfolio allocation strategies for resource sector investors.

Timecodes

• (00:00) – Introduction & Recent Gold Market Update
• (01:31) – Drivers Behind the Rally & US Jobs Data
• (03:25) – ETF Flows & Official Sector Demand
• (04:47) – Technical Analysis & Resistance Levels
• (06:52) – US Yen Intervention & Currency Valuation
• (09:33) – Market Outlook & Macroeconomic Factors
• (11:00) – Geopolitics & Strategic Market Positioning

Technical Reports: Access Nick Frappell’s institutional chartbooks and monthly analysis at abcrefinery.com/podcast.

• Follow Shae Russell on X: @shaearussell
• Follow Nick Frappell on X: @nick_frappell