Consumers are more worried now than at 2022's 40-year inflation high. Peter Schiff shows why the 'greatest economy ever' is pure fiction.

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Consumers are more worried about their finances than at any point in 75 years. Washington calls it a boom.

Peter Schiff takes apart the claim that America has the greatest economy in history. The University of Michigan's current conditions index just fell to an all-time low in a survey that dates to 1951. Households were less worried during the Cuban missile crisis, the 1970s gas lines, 9/11, the 2008 financial crisis, COVID and the 40-year inflation high of 2022 than they are today. Loan delinquencies are the highest since 2010, and the biggest wealth gains are going to households headed by someone 75 or older, because the same policies that raise the cost of living also inflate the stocks they own.

Peter argues the weak economy explains the week's politics: a diesel deal with Russia three weeks after a law authorizing 100% tariffs on buyers of Russian energy, a pledge not to bomb Iran until after the midterms, and a committee of Trump appointees investigating Fed governor Lisa Cook. He also covers Fed minutes in which officials concede policy is not restrictive, a 30-year Treasury yield that reached 5.73%, why 7.4% mortgages are a return to normal, the week in gold, silver and Bitcoin, and why barring Microsoft from sponsoring foreign workers sends those jobs, taxes and spending overseas.

Chapters:

00:00 Record Low Confidence

01:03 Trump Boom Claims

03:39 Michigan Sentiment Shock

06:58 75 Years of Crises

11:19 Great Economy Fiction

11:36 Winter Prep Sponsor

12:46 Polls and Debt Stress

16:19 Who Benefits From Boom

17:54 Russia Diesel Flip Flop

22:29 Iran Timing and Markets

24:16 Rename AI to SI

26:06 Lisa Cook Probe Committee

28:51 Mortgage Fraud Politics

30:53 Fed Minutes More Hikes

32:02 Bond Yields New Normal

33:05 Bitcoin Real Estate Debate

36:40 High Debt High Rates

38:15 Weekly Market Recap

39:03 Gold Silver Buy Zone

40:27 Bitcoin Anniversary Reality

42:50 Treasury Yields Reality Check

44:43 H1B Visa Backlash

46:30 Who Owns The Job

52:42 Remote Hiring Consequences

56:29 Wrap Up And Sign Off

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Tariffs failed, imports hit a record, and France is rioting. Peter Schiff explains why America's sovereign debt crisis is next.

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Imports hit a record in August, the tariffs failed, and France just showed America where runaway debt ends.

Peter Schiff opens with the August trade deficit: $105.6 billion against a $99 billion forecast, with total imports at a record high despite Trump's tariffs. The tariffs did not reduce buying; they only made imports more expensive. Prices paid in the ISM services survey rose to 74, the highest since July 2022. Peter argues Republicans squandered two years of control and that Trump could have forced a balanced budget by vetoing debt ceiling increases, but pushed to abolish the ceiling instead.

France is the preview. Its 10-year yield of 4.75% now sits below America's 5.28%, its government spends 57% of GDP, and even timid proposals to slow spending growth are meeting protests in the streets. Peter explains why the eurozone failed exactly as he warned in the 1990s, then makes the case that keeping America out of World War I would have prevented World War II. With gold below $4,200 and silver near $60, he argues precious metals are the last safe haven as sovereign debt crises spread.

Chapters:

00:00 Global Debt Unrest

00:42 Stocks Hit Records

02:37 Trade Deficit Shock

07:40 Tariffs Backfire

10:48 Inflation Signals Rising

12:51 GOP Spending Failure

16:28 Veto Power Missed

18:25 MAGA Loyalty Machine

25:09 France Bond Spread Alarm

30:47 France Cuts Spark Protests

32:55 Welfare State Backlash

33:41 Pension Changes Explained

34:40 Healthcare and Sick Pay Tweaks

36:27 Freezes and Token Cuts

38:24 Debt Crisis and ECB Limits

39:18 Eurozone Moral Hazard

43:23 ECB Bailouts and Inflation

44:26 France as US Warning

45:11 Brazil Election Market Reaction

47:38 Tucker Interview on War

49:31 Why WWI Led to WWII

55:13 Unintended War Consequences

01:00:09 Wrap Up and Gold Pitch

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Peter Schiff on a 29,000 jobs miss, weak wage growth, a $132.6B trade deficit, Trump's inflation remark, and why bonds sold off anyway.

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Peter Schiff breaks down the September jobs report: just 29,000 jobs against an 85,000 estimate. July was revised back to negative 10,000 and August down to 133,000. Unemployment rose to 4.2%, private payrolls added 46,000, and average hourly earnings rose only 0.1%, the smallest monthly gain in more than five years, while August CPI rose 0.4%. Peter had forecast both the miss and the downward revisions on Tuesday's podcast.

Peter explains why the bond market sold off despite the weak report and softer August PCE data, even as the odds of an October rate hike fell sharply. The 10-year Treasury closed the week at 5.28% and the 30-year at 5.63%, which he calls classic bear market action. He also covers personal income rising 0.2% against spending up 0.9%, a 4.1% savings rate, and an August trade deficit of $132.6 billion, the fourth worst in US history, which he says shows tariffs have not reduced imports and that importers are the ones paying them.

On stocks, Peter notes the Nasdaq hit an intraday record while 147 stocks made new 52-week lows against 38 new highs on the week, breadth he compares to 1999-2000 and 1973. He responds to President Trump's interview comment that inflation will pay off the debt, arguing it amounts to a sell signal for bondholders, and disputes Trump's claim that he inherited inflation from Biden.

Peter reviews gold near $4,140, silver at $60.37 and the miners, Bitcoin near $84,500 and Strategy's Stretch trading back near par, and argues the data points to stagflation, with AI capital spending propping up GDP. He discusses the G7's 100 million barrel oil reserve release, mortgage rates he thinks could reach 8% this month, risks to housing, autos, credit and Fannie and Freddie, $40 trillion in debt at 5% interest, Janet Yellen's past comments on low rates, and Rick Santelli's final day at CNBC. He closes by urging listeners to buy the dip in gold and silver, with support near $4,000 and $60.

Chapters:

00:00 Bond Crisis Warning

01:02 September Jobs Shock

03:02 Revisions and Labor Details

06:22 Wages Lag Inflation

08:16 Bonds Sell Off Anyway

12:36 Income Spending PCE

15:47 Trade Deficit Tariffs

20:13 Stocks Ignore Rising Yields

26:48 Trump Inflation Pays Debt

28:06 Inflation Pays Debt Claim

29:02 Who Owns Inflation Blame

30:17 Bondholders Get Burned

31:20 Weekly Market Scorecard

31:49 Gold Silver Yield Paradox

34:13 Stagflation And AI Distortion

36:17 Bitcoin Strategy Stretch Update

38:35 Bond Vigilantes Take Over

40:21 Oil Reserves And Mortgage Shock

45:08 Debt Math And Crisis Setup

49:51 Midterms And Voter Reality

51:56 Buy Metals And Wrap Up

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Peter Schiff on record bond yields, a 12-year low in consumer confidence, the end of the 40-year refi era, and why gold is the last safe haven.

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Bond yields hit new highs on weak data, consumer confidence sank to a 12-year low, and Peter says the end game has arrived.

The 30-year Treasury touched 5.62% and the 10-year closed at 5.26%, two weeks after 5% was supposed to be the ceiling. What makes this week different is that bonds sold off on bad news: consumer confidence collapsed to 81.9, the lowest in 12 years and below the depths of the pandemic, job openings missed, and yields rose anyway. Peter's warning is direct: if Friday's jobs number is weak and bonds still fall, the orderly grind lower becomes a crash. Gold's $170 drop is the market getting this backwards. Money leaving bonds ends up in gold, the last safe haven standing.

The bigger story is housing. America is now in the worst quadrant, high debt and high rates, which it has never lived through. For 40 years mortgage rates only fell, from 18% in 1981 to 2.65% in 2021, and homeowners rode that wave with serial cash-out refis that turned the house into an ATM. At 7.4% and headed past 8%, that era is over: no more refis, no cash out, no wealth effect, with homes at five times income and down payments at 13.8%. Fannie and Freddie are down 75% while the government buys more mortgage bonds. Neither party will name a cut. Every crisis Peter has warned about is converging, and he says to get your plan B in order.

Chapters:

00:00 Bond Crash Warning

01:02 Yields Surge and Mortgages

02:59 Gold Dip and Safe Haven

07:11 Weak Data Ignored

13:21 Housing Market Cracks

14:48 Password Security Ad

16:00 High Debt High Rates Era

19:17 Housing Bubble Math

23:56 Refi Boom Ends

28:24 Home Prices Next Drop

31:30 Noom Weight Loss Pitch

33:07 GSE Stocks Get Crushed

35:50 Trump Hype And Dump

39:39 PSA Or Campaign Ad

42:41 Deficits Nobody Will Cut

47:59 Affordability Promises Backfire

50:08 Socialism Messaging Trap

52:12 AI Hope Versus Debt Crisis

56:02 Fed Out Of Tricks

56:43 Prepare For The Storm

57:28 Wrap Up And Plan B

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Peter Schiff on why 86% of the S&P is already in a bear market, the 1973 and 2000 parallels, 5% Treasury yields, and new IRS emails on his bank.

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Market breadth has only been this bad twice in 100 years, and both times the S&P 500 fell nearly 50%.

Peter Schiff opens with the relentless rise in long-term yields: the 10-year Treasury closed at 5.16%, the 30-year at 5.49%, and the five-year at 5.00%, while stocks shrug it off. Mortgages sit above 7% only because the Trump administration ordered Fannie and Freddie to buy, and Peter expects 8% regardless. Bond yields rose even as oil fell from $100 to $92, showing the bond market has decoupled from the Fed narrative. The S&P is 0.7% from a record, but the average stock is 19% below its high, 60% of stocks are in bear territory, and new lows outpaced new highs three to one. Peter compares this to January 1973 and early 2000, the only two precedents, both followed by roughly 49% declines. He also covers the Michigan sentiment drop to 48.1 and the hoarding psychology behind it, Bill Ackman's call to raise the inflation target, why rising yields are bullish for gold, and the Trump-Xi meeting that produced no commitments. The second half returns to Euro Pacific Bank: newly unredacted IRS emails reveal an MOU with OCIF and no answer when the IRS-CI chief asked what the bank did wrong, while the receiver has repaid 78 of roughly 3,500 customers in four years and paid himself over $850,000.

Chapters:

00:00 Breadth Crash Warning

00:59 Bond Yields Surge

04:40 Global Rates and Mortgages

07:37 Oil Link Breaks

11:01 Consumers and Hoarding

14:58 Markets Misread Gold

18:47 Hidden Bear Market Breadth

21:06 History Rhymes Again

23:21 Ackman and Inflation Target

29:15 China Summit and Tariffs

33:05 Bank Shutdown FOIA Fight

38:20 FOIA Fight With IRS

39:11 Settlement And New Disclosures

42:03 Press Conference Double Standard

43:46 Jim Lee Email Questions

47:10 MOU Proof Of Coordination

50:56 Unanswered Questions Expose Narrative

55:02 Publicity Stunt Motive

56:04 Portugal Freeze Fallout

57:23 Receivership Numbers Breakdown

01:04:40 Government Vs Free Market Rant

01:06:41 Congress Won't Act

01:07:41 Wrap Up And Investing Pitch

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The Fed hiked a quarter point. Peter explains why it will not stop the bond market, the dollar, or what is already coming for housing.

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The Fed finally hiked. Peter says the quarter point changes nothing about what is already in motion.

The Federal Reserve raised the fed funds rate 25 basis points to 3.75 to 4 percent, a 90 percent probability going in and a unanimous vote coming out. Peter's read is that none of that signals resolve. The Fed did not hike because it wanted to. Months of tough talk had stopped working, the bond market had called the bluff, and the committee was left with a put-up-or-shut-up moment it could not dodge. So it did the smallest thing available, and Kevin Warsh gave the shortest press conference of his tenure on the way out.

A quarter point does not touch inflation heading for a four handle, not with oil above 100 dollars and diesel at record highs. The reason the Fed will not do more is not caution, it is capacity. A hike large enough to break inflation would break the economy and the Treasury's ability to fund itself.

The market understood immediately. The Dow closed down roughly 600 points after being green before the announcement, and the 10-year Treasury pushed back above 5 percent, which Peter calls a stepping stone to 6. He also covers Trump's demand for sub-1 percent rates, Scott Bessent's testimony, why 8 percent mortgages are coming, and why he expects gold to recover from this selloff quickly.

Chapters:

00:00 Fed Hikes Under Pressure

00:33 Markets Priced In the Move

03:46 Fed Cornered by Inflation Talk

06:38 Symbolic Hike and Market Fallout

10:11 Fiscal Policy and Real Inflation

21:31 Bond Yields Surge and Trump Reacts

32:28 Import Cold Turkey Fallout

33:40 Tariffs And China Surplus

35:08 Empty Shelves Economic Crash

36:18 Five Thousand Dollar Dividend

44:30 Bonds For Bombs And Meme Coins

53:32 Crypto Politics Gold Outlook Farewell

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Fox dropped Peter for saying inflation would accelerate. August CPI proved it. Now an 88% rate hike, 19-year-high yields, and $100 oil.

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Peter got dropped from Fox News for saying inflation would accelerate. August CPI just proved him right.

Last December Peter went on Fox News and said prices were still rising and the rate of increase would accelerate. Trump called him a Trump hater; Fox stopped booking him. Today's CPI: up 0.4% for August, 3.4% year over year, core hotter than expected, PPI running 5.4%, oil back over $100. Consumer inflation expectations jumped to 4.6%. Everything he said would happen has happened, while the president told a Republican convention this week that prices are "rapidly going down."

Markets now put 88% odds on a rate hike next week, and Peter says the Fed has backed itself into a corner: Warsh has talked tough for so long that not hiking ends the Fed's credibility. But a symbolic 25 basis points "ain't gonna cut it" when inflation is rising faster than rates. The bond market already knows. The 10-year hit 4.97%, a 19-year high, the 30-year 5.35%, and Peter argues we're only six years into a bear market where 5% is nowhere near the top, with $40 trillion of debt to refinance. He also takes apart Trump's $5,000 "dividend" (a bribe paid from $4 trillion of new debt), calls gold dips a gift, and says Bitcoin's chart projects to zero.

Chapters:

00:00 Fox News Inflation Call

00:34 9/11 Reflections and Liberty

05:27 CPI Report and Fed Odds

14:16 Symbolic Hike Won’t Work

36:49 Metals and Bitcoin Check

37:51 Bitcoin Head and Shoulders

39:24 Why a Midterm Convention

44:55 The 5000 Dividend Claim

57:17 Inflation Jobs and Wrap Up

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