With less than two weeks to go before Pierre Poilievre’s leadership review in Calgary, a new poll shows a spike in his negative ratings to a new high. Is it a one-off blip or a sign of a deeper problem for the Conservative leader?

We break down the federal polls on this week’s episode of The Numbers. We also discuss François Legault’s bombshell resignation last week and how it shuffles the deck ahead of Quebec’s provincial election in October.

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Chrystia Freeland, the former cabinet minister and Liberal leadership contestant whose resignation letter was the final nail in the coffin of Justin Trudeau’s prime ministership, finally vacated her seat in the House of Commons last week. As Mark Carney tries to find his way to the magic number of 172 seats needed for a majority government, he now has one more to fill.

And it likely won’t be the last.

In the first episode of 2026 of The Numbers, we take a look at the one byelection we know will happen soon and the other potential seats that could be vacated in the coming weeks or months. We also discuss the latest federal polling numbers as well as the state of the B.C. Conservative, Quebec Liberal and Ontario Liberal leadership races. Plus, there’s a new poll out of Nova Scotia.

Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here!

https://www.patreon.com/cw/thenumberspod

The bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.

You can watch this episode on YouTube.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

After tackling the year in federal politics to come, we now turn our attentions to the provincial scenes.

In this second part of our Over/Under Contest, we set our lines for the Quebec election in October. We also make our predictions for potential other provincial elections, premier resignations, leadership race outcomes and where party leaders might end the year in the polls.

Thanks for all of your support for the podcast throughout 2025 and we wish you all the best in 2026!

Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you’ll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here!

https://www.patreon.com/cw/thenumberspod

You can watch this episode on YouTube.

The bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.