The Logic of Ruin: Sunk Cost Fallacy & The Short-Termism Trap copertina

The Logic of Ruin: Sunk Cost Fallacy & The Short-Termism Trap

The Logic of Ruin: Sunk Cost Fallacy & The Short-Termism Trap

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Why do rational investors throw good money after bad? This episode explores the Sunk Cost Fallacy and Short-Termism—the two cognitive distortions responsible for history’s most expensive disasters.

From the mysterious disappearance of the Roanoke Colony to the financial collapse of the DeLorean Motor Company, we analyse why the human brain refuses to cut its losses. We also examine the "Cane Toad" effect—how seeking immediate, short-term fixes often creates long-term ecological and strategic ruin.

In this episode, we cover:

  • The Roanoke Trap: How the refusal to admit failure led to the total loss of a colony.
  • The DeLorean Disaster: A case study in government "Sunk Costs" and the inability to pivot.
  • The Cane Toad Effect: Why short-term efficiency hacks (System 1) often lead to long-term catastrophe.
  • The Golden Goose: The mathematical stupidity of killing long-term value for immediate extraction.

This is the final lesson in our Decision-Making series: Learning to spot the difference between "persistence" and "digging a deeper grave."


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IN THIS EPISODE

00:00 The Logic of Ruin: Introduction

00:46 The Lost Colony of Roanoke: When Sunk Costs become Human Costs

04:16 The DeLorean Disaster: How Governments Fall for the Sunk Cost Fallacy

07:47 The Cane Toad Effect: The Dangers of Short-Term Thinking

11:21 The Golden Goose: Killing Value for Immediate Gratification


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