Mexico’s ruling party, Morena, is building a political machine inside the United States, and Mexico’s consulates are helping.

Joshua Treviño and Ariana Guajardo sit down with Alejandrina Elms, TPPF’s new U.S.-Mexico relations analyst, to discuss her paper “Mexico’s Regime in the United States.” They cover Morena’s 2024–2027 strategy abroad and why Mexico runs 53 consulates across the U.S. They also explain the “Fourth Transformation” ideology that counts Mexican-Americans as part of the Mexican nation, and how the expat vote nearly doubled between 2018 and 2024.

They also discuss the 2025 Los Angeles consulate controversy and why Morena’s U.S. activity breaks Mexico’s own diplomatic neutrality laws. The episode ends with the paper’s recommendations: FARA enforcement, reciprocity, and zero tolerance for interference.

Read the paper at texaspolicy.com.

Narco gunfire at the U.S. Coast Guard, a U.S.-backed police academy that Sheinbaum opposes, and former presidents who won't leave the stage. So who is running Mexico?

Joshua Treviño and Ariana Guajardo of the Texas Public Policy Foundation start with the Noche Triste and then cover the September 26 shooting near Frontón Island. They also discuss the gap between strong operational cooperation and Morena's narco-affiliated political core, AMLO's refusal to step aside, and Morena's 2027 gubernatorial picks. Joshua's answer to the question is "the sum of their fears."

What does Emiliano Zapata have to do with Mexico's political crisis in 2026? More than you'd think.

Joshua Treviño opens with a reading from John Womack's landmark 1968 work Zapata and the Mexican Revolution — a portrait of a man who led a revolution simply because he refused to let his village's land be taken. From there, Joshua and Ariana unpack why Zapata remains a contested figure claimed by the left but deeply relevant to anyone who wants to understand why conservative politics has historically failed in Mexico, and what it would take to change that.

Then: the most turbulent ten days in recent Mexican political history. The US Department of Justice indicted Sinaloa Governor Rubén Rocha Moya and Senator Enrique Inzunza back in April, and this August everything came to a head. AMLO's son lost his American visa. Rocha Moya briefly attempted to reclaim the governorship and was swiftly isolated by the entire Morena party apparatus. Inzunza returned to the Senate, but as an independent. Joshua breaks down what actually happened, what the institution of the fuero has to do with it, and why none of this would have happened without American pressure.

Plus: a close look at Regeneración, Morena's party publication, and imagery that Joshua argues crosses a line no American political publication could get away with.

Topics covered:

- Emiliano Zapata, patriotism, and the political appeal Morena figured out
- The DOJ indictments of Rocha Moya and Inzunza
- AMLO's family under pressure from Washington
- The shell game Morena is playing and why it won't work
- Regeneración's propaganda and what it says about US-Mexico relations
- Where Mexico goes from here ahead of 2027 midterms

This week on The Hard Country, Joshua Treviño and Ariana Guajardo mark the centennial of La Cristiada, the Cristero War, which erupted in Mexico in August 1926 when traditional, practicing Catholics rose up against a government determined to strip the Church from public life.

Josh and Ariana trace the roots of Mexico's church-state conflict from independence in the 1820s through the Reform Wars, the French intervention under Emperor Maximilian, the Mexican Revolution, and the 1917 Constitution, up to the 1926 Ley Calles, the decree that banned religious orders, criminalized clerical dress, and pushed the country's Catholic majority to armed rebellion.

They also explore the competing origin myths of modern Mexico, the Aztec centered narrative promoted by today's Morena government versus the mestizo, Guadalupan synthesis of Spanish and indigenous cultures, and tie it to current events, including a recent essay describing the Church as an obstacle to the state and comments from President López Obrador's sons on Fidel Castro's 100th birthday.

Ismael "El Mayo" Zambada García — one of the most powerful Sinaloa Cartel bosses in Mexican history — was sentenced to life without parole. Joshua Treviño and Ariana Guajardo break down how he ended up in US custody, the disputed story behind his capture, and what it means for the future of the Sinaloa Cartel.

In this episode:
- The sentencing of El Mayo Zambada and the end of an era in cartel history
- The contested story of his 2024 rendition to the US, allegedly orchestrated by "El Guero" (son of El Chapo)
- Why Mexico charged El Guero with treason — and what that reveals about cartel-state ties
- The US indictment of Sinaloa Governor Rubén Rocha Moya and Senator Insunza
- Why AMLO and the Morena coalition may be protecting high-level narco-politicians
- A Mexican senator's letter to Texas, Arizona, New Mexico, and California lawmakers on border security
- The ongoing debate over Illegal Alien migration, human trafficking, and border enforcement
- What US-Mexico relations could look like going forward

Joshua and Ariana dig into the politics, history, and human cost behind the headlines — from the Mexican Constitution's treason clause to the real accountability gap in the US-Mexico relationship.

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Mexico is nearing a breaking point. Joshua Treviño and Ariana Guajardo break down the collision of two deadlines: the USMCA reauthorization review and the fallout from U.S. indictments against senior Mexican politicians, including the governor of Sinaloa.

They discuss why President Sheinbaum is refusing extradition and framing U.S. pressure as an attack on sovereignty, even as reports suggest dozens of officials may be quietly cooperating with the DEA and FBI. Joshua also breaks down the three factions splitting the Morena coalition apart, Morena's "Fourth Transformation" narrative, AMLO's resurfacing letter, the renewed controversy around "El Mayo" Zambada's 2024 arrest, and what USMCA's new annual review means for U.S.-Mexico trade and security. They close with a recap of Mexico's World Cup exit to England.

The worst crisis in U.S.-Mexico relations in a century — and it's still escalating.

Josh Treviño, author of the upcoming Spectator World cover story "Mexican Standoff," joins Ariana Guajardo to break down how the U.S.-Mexico relationship went from cautious optimism to full-blown crisis in a matter of weeks.

The deaths of two CIA officers in Chihuahua. The indictments of a sitting Sinaloa governor and senator. A ruling party with deep ties to the cartels it was supposed to fight. And a president who once had a reputation for diplomatic deftness — now scrambling to hold her coalition together.

In this episode, Josh and Ariana unpack the concept of soberanía and why it functions more as political cover than real principle, how the Morena party's ties to the Sinaloa cartel have shaped Mexican governance for decades, why the recent indictments are only the opening move in a much longer escalation, what tools the U.S. still hasn't used yet, and why AMLO's son just quietly maneuvered to seek legislative immunity.

Mexico can still step off the escalator. The question is whether anyone in Palacio Nacional has the statecraft to do it.

Look for Josh Treviño's full piece, Mexican Standoff, in the upcoming June 8th print edition of The Spectator World. The Hard Country is produced by the Texas Public Policy Foundation.

Two CIA officers are dead after a car crash and explosion in Chihuahua, Mexico, and the fallout may reshape US-Mexico relations for years to come. Joshua Treviño joins Ariana Guajardo on this episode of The Hard Country to break down what really happened and what comes next.

Timestamps:
0:00 — Introduction: CIA Officers Killed in Chihuahua, Mexico
1:46 — What Were CIA Officers Doing in Mexico?
5:29 — Sheinbaum's Impossible Balancing Act Between Morena and Washington
11:04 — How Morena Dismantled Mexico's Independent Institutions
27:04 — The Narco-Politicians List & What Comes Next

Referenced:
Wall Street Journal: America Gets Serious About Cartels. Will Mexico?