Can military superiority compensate for bad strategy?

In this special episode of The Focus, Dr John Bruni speaks with Sir Lawrence Freedman—one of the world’s foremost authorities on strategy and war—about the strategic failures shaping today’s increasingly interconnected conflicts.

Using the Iran War as a starting point, Sir Lawrence explains why strategy remains an art rather than a science, why overwhelming military power cannot guarantee a satisfactory political outcome, and why states must consider how a war will end before they begin it.

The conversation examines whether Iran has proved more strategically effective than the United States, the internal struggle over Iranian policy, the independence of the Houthis, and the growing connections between the conflicts involving Iran, Russia and Ukraine.

John and Sir Lawrence also discuss:

• The difference between military action and political strategy
• Bismarck and Moltke’s disagreement during the Franco-Prussian War


• Pete Hegseth and the dangers of strategic boasting
• The emerging Adversarial Entente


• Why the current disorder may benefit China
• Europe’s capacity to defend itself against Russia


• America’s changing relationship with its allies
• The “hurting stalemate” in Ukraine
• SAGE International’s Threshold Conditioning model
• The danger of escalation and war by miscalculation


• China’s strategy towards Taiwan


• How Australia can resist coercion below the threshold of war


• The most important lesson for the next generation of strategists

This is a wide-ranging discussion about the enduring relationship between force, politics and strategic judgement—and what happens when governments possess enormous military power but lack a realistic political end state.

ABOUT SIR LAWRENCE FREEDMAN

Sir Lawrence Freedman is one of the world’s leading scholars of strategy and war. His influential books include Strategy: A History, Command and The Future of War. His work has shaped contemporary thinking about military power, political decision-making and the changing character of conflict.

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Could the November 2026 US midterms reshape Donald Trump’s presidency—and how far would the consequences travel beyond America?

Dr John Bruni welcomes Professor Scott Lucas to The Focus for a discussion of the prospect of a Democratic “blue wave”, the pressures facing the Republican Party, and the capacity of America’s institutions to hold presidential power accountable.

At the centre of the conversation is a question with global implications: if Trump faces a serious electoral setback, what happens next?

The discussion explores Republican loyalty, JD Vance’s political future, election integrity, press freedom and the relationship between domestic political pressure and America’s behaviour abroad. For Australia and other US allies, these questions have direct implications for the reliability of American leadership and the assumptions underpinning their security.

Show Notes:

ABOUT SCOTT LUCAS

Professor Scott Lucas is Professor of International Politics at the Clinton Institute, University College Dublin, and Professor Emeritus of International Politics at the University of Birmingham. He is also the founder and editor of EA WorldView, which provides news and analysis of US politics and international affairs.

An academic and journalist, Scott specialises in American politics and foreign policy, media and propaganda, and intelligence services. He brings decades of experience to examining presidential power, the resilience of democratic institutions and the global consequences of political change in Washington.

Read Scott’s analysis at EA WorldView.

Have your say:
Would a major Republican defeat weaken Trump’s hold on the party? And should Australia be doing more to prepare for uncertainty in Washington?

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Host: Dr John Bruni
Guest: Professor Scott Lucas
Producers: Neil Smart & Lin Siah
A podcast of SAGE International.

Challenge the assumption, test the system, identify the consequence

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India has spent decades pursuing strategic autonomy. But what happens when the world around it begins choosing sides?

In this episode of The Focus Podcast, Dr John Bruni is joined by LTGEN (Ret.) Ravi Shankar to examine India's increasingly complex strategic position as instability surrounding Iran reshapes the Middle East and reaches deep into South Asia.

At the centre of the discussion is a larger question:

Can India preserve strategic autonomy as the international system becomes increasingly organised around competing security relationships and centres of power?

Show Notes

LTGEN (Ret.) Ravi Shankar brings a distinctly Indian military and strategic perspective to a rapidly changing geopolitical landscape.

LTGEN (Ret.) Ravi Shankar is a former Director General of Artillery in the Indian Army and a leading commentator on Indian defence, military strategy and regional security. He writes and speaks extensively on India’s strategic challenges, military modernisation, China, Pakistan and the changing character of warfare.

🔗 Contact Shankar, The Gunners Shot YouTube Channel: / @gunnersshot

Website: https://gunnersshot.com/

LinkedIn: / palepu-ravi-shankar-08480214

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What if Russia’s most dangerous weapon isn’t the one that starts a war — but the one that keeps us permanently on the edge of one?

From drones over European airports and sabotage to cyberattacks, disinformation and military intimidation, Russia is testing NATO below the threshold of open conflict. But how far can Moscow push before someone miscalculates?

In this episode of The Focus Podcast, Dr John Bruni speaks with leading German security expert Dr Karl-Heinz Kamp about Russia’s campaign of pressure against Europe, what Moscow is trying to achieve, and whether NATO is genuinely prepared for a confrontation that may never look like conventional war.

Show Notes:

About Dr Karl-Heinz Kamp: Dr Karl-Heinz Kamp is one of Germany’s leading experts on NATO, European security and nuclear deterrence. A former President of Germany’s Federal Academy for Security Policy and Research Director at the NATO Defense College in Rome, he has also served in senior roles within Germany’s defence establishment and advised NATO on its Strategic Concept. He is currently an Associate Fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP), specialising in transatlantic security, NATO and deterrence.

Karl-Heinz’s top three publications:

Nuclear NATO: How to Make it Credible and Efficient — German Council on Foreign Relations, 2024. A substantial examination of how NATO needs to adapt its nuclear deterrence posture to the changed European security environment.

Nuclear Implications of the Russian-Ukrainian Conflict — NATO Defense College, 2015. An important early analysis of how Russia’s aggression against Ukraine brought nuclear deterrence back to the centre of Euro-Atlantic security.

NATO’s Nuclear Weapons in Europe: Beyond “Yes” or “No” — NATO Defense College, 2010. One of Kamp’s notable earlier studies of NATO nuclear strategy and the future credibility of the Alliance’s deterrent.

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On September 10, 2001, the United States stood at the height of its power.

Twenty-five years later, what happened to the American moment?

In this special 25th-anniversary episode of The Focus, Dr John Bruni sits down with historian and political scientist Professor Roy Casagranda for a sweeping — and at times fiercely provocative — conversation about America before 9/11, the choices it made afterwards, and the world those decisions helped create.

Was the invasion of Iraq the great strategic mistake of the post-9/11 era?

Did two decades of war give China the time and strategic space it needed to catch up with the United States?

How did Washington’s relationship with Vladimir Putin unravel?

And is Donald Trump dismantling the post-9/11 order — or is he ultimately a product of it?

From George H. W. Bush and Boris Yeltsin to George W. Bush, Iraq, Afghanistan, Putin, China, Trump, Iran and the remilitarisation of Germany, Casagranda challenges conventional accounts of the last quarter-century of American power.

Some of his arguments are deliberately contentious. That is precisely the point of this conversation: challenge the assumption, test the argument, and examine the consequences.

Twenty-five years after the attacks that changed America and the world, one question hangs over the entire discussion:

DID THE UNITED STATES USE ITS EXTRAORDINARY POWER WISELY AFTER 9/11 — AND IF NOT, CAN IT RECOVER WHAT IT LOST?

ABOUT PROFESSOR ROY CASAGRANDA

Roy Casagranda is a Professor of Government, political scientist, historian, public lecturer and commentator on Middle Eastern affairs.

He is widely known for his interdisciplinary approach, combining history, politics, economics, philosophy and culture to explain contemporary global events.

He is also a Golden Narrative Laureate and a regular commentator on international affairs.

ROY'S WORK

BOOKS

• The Blood Throne of Caria
• Empire of the Nightingale

CURRENT LECTURE SERIES

Sessions from the Past — Museum of the Future, Dubai (2025–2026)

Including:

• The 1000-Year Legacy of Ibn Sina
• The Roman Republic
• The Great Library of Alexandria
• The Reconquista
• Modern Ideologies and Political Thought

FOLLOW PROFESSOR ROY CASAGRANDA

YouTube:
Dr. Roy Casagranda YouTube Channel
https://www.youtube.com/@DrRoyCasagranda

Apple Podcasts:
Dr. Roy Casagranda Podcast
https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/dr-roy-casagranda-podcast/id1837193563

X / Twitter:
@RoyCasagranda

Facebook:
Roy Casagranda Books & Lectures
https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=6157983973489

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Australia is one of the world’s most ethnically diverse societies—but is it truly multicultural?

In Episode 116 of The Focus, Dr John Bruni speaks with Associate Professor Salvatore Babones, political sociologist at the University of Sydney, about immigration, assimilation and what he calls “the multicultural myth.”

Babones argues that Australia is a multiracial society held together by a broadly shared national culture—not a collection of separate cultures living under entirely different social rules. He explains why most Australians may be “secret assimilationists,” how the language of multiculturalism can nevertheless serve a valuable social purpose, and why importing historical ethnic conflicts can undermine cohesion.

SHOW NOTES & FURTHER READING

About Salvatore Babones

Associate Professor Salvatore Babones is a political sociologist at the University of Sydney. His research and commentary examine democracy, social cohesion, immigration, education and the political challenges confronting contemporary Western societies. He is the author or editor of numerous books and writes regularly for Australian and international publications.

Salvatore Babones — “Monoculturalism Is Not a Dirty Word”

The article underpinning Salvatore’s argument that Australia can be a multiracial society while maintaining a shared national culture.


Dr John Bruni — “The AfD and Meeting Reality”
Related analysis examining Germany’s migration debate, the rise of the AfD and the increasingly contentious concept of remigration.

https://jbruni.substack.com/p/when-remigration-meets-reality

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From pandemics and wars to artificial intelligence, geopolitical rivalry, and presidential candidates, the pace of change has never been faster. Yet governments, businesses and intelligence agencies continue to be caught off guard by events they often should have seen coming. Why? In this episode of The Focus, Dr John Bruni speaks with strategic foresight expert Patti Morrissey about why strategic surprises keep happening, how leaders can better prepare for uncertainty, and why the future isn't something we predict—it's something we prepare for.

Show Notes:

About Patti
Patti Morrissey is the founder & CEO of Global Foresight Strategies. She has deep expertise in providing strategic planning and foresight analysis for government and non-government clients. Patti has 36 years of experience in government, national and international security policy and strategy, working for the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence.

Global Foresight Strategies

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How did Colombia defeat the FARC—and what can other democracies learn from its experience?

In Part 2 of my conversation with General Alberto José Mejía Ferrero, former Commander of the Colombian Armed Forces, we continue our examination of counterinsurgency, national resilience and the long campaign that transformed Colombia’s security environment.

We begin with Colombia’s enduring urban-rural divide, and the way geography, uneven development and weak state presence helped shape decades of internal conflict. General Mejía then explains how the Colombian state adapted its military, political and institutional approach to weaken and ultimately defeat the FARC as a strategic force.

Our discussion also covers:

• The historical development of Colombia
• The military and political campaign against the FARC
• The continuing threat posed by the ELN
• Venezuela’s support for armed groups
• Security along the Colombia-Venezuela border
• Regional security cooperation in Latin America
• The credibility of US defence of the Western Hemisphere
• The democratisation of drone warfare after Ukraine
• How General Mejía would prepare the Colombian military today
• America’s difficult relationship with counterinsurgency warfare
• The impact of Venezuelan refugees on Colombia

This is not simply a discussion about Colombia. It is a wider examination of how democracies confront insurgency, restore state authority and convert battlefield success into lasting strategic outcomes.

Show Notes:

About General Alberto José Mejía Ferrero is a retired Colombian Army officer who served as Commander of the Colombian Army and later as General Commander of Colombia’s Armed Forces. During his military career, he held senior operational and strategic appointments during Colombia’s campaign against the FARC and other illegal armed groups. Following his retirement from military service, he served as Colombia’s Ambassador to Australia. His career provides a rare perspective on counterinsurgency, military transformation, strategic leadership, civil-military relations and the changing security environment of Latin America.

Glossary:

ELN (Ejército de Liberación Nacional) in English - the National Liberation Army

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