Recorded live on Tuesday September 29, 2026 -- Julie Roginsky and Michelle Kinney are joined by Ben Lazarus, one of the best Democratic pollsters in the country, for real hopium about the midterms. Ben explains why a red wave is off the table, how a collapse in Republican turnout could make the blue wave much bigger, and why Trump's numbers are softening even among his own base.

They dig into why polling is so hard, how pollsters account for voters who won't take surveys, and why data centers have become a potent issue in some of the reddest parts of the country. Then it's a lightning round on Michigan, Minnesota, and Texas, plus a case for funding state legislative races, where every dollar goes furthest. Julie and Michelle close with the Cornell case (more on this later) and the Joe Biden story in The Atlantic.

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The Mayday Network is an independent, women-led independent media where politics meets culture. 0:19 Welcome and intro 1:04 Ben's midterm outlook: is a blue wave coming? 6:36 Why polling is so hard 15:04 Trump's softening support among Republicans 19:30 Gas prices and swing districts 22:00 Does money still matter? 27:45 Why data centers are a political problem 35:00 Voter distrust of both parties 42:55 Finding the "double haters" 47:00 The horseshoe effect and 2028 50:10 Lightning round: Michigan, Minnesota, Texas 1:02:04 Blue Moreno hats and voting reminders 1:04:40 The Cornell case 1:11:20 Joe Biden in The Atlantic

Breaking: the Supreme Court just sided with the Trump administration, reviving DHS's flawed SAVE database and letting states use it to challenge and purge voters — including naturalized citizens — right as early voting is already underway in contested Senate races across North Carolina, Georgia, Ohio, Iowa, Alaska, and Kansas. Julie Roginsky and Michelle Kinney break down what just happened, why it's timed for maximum midterm chaos, and the one thing you need to know if you show up to vote and get told you're not eligible: ask for a provisional ballot, and do not leave until you get it.

The Dispatch airs live — new episodes every week on The Mayday Network YouTube channel, wherever you get your podcasts.

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Timestamps: 0:00 Breaking: SCOTUS sides with Trump admin on voter database 1:56 What the SAVE database ruling actually allows 3:06 Why the timing hits swing-state Senate races right now 4:29 Julie: the Court is "the in-house general counsel for the Republican National Committee" 8:29 What to do if you're told you're not eligible to vote: demand a provisional ballot

Ellie Leonard joins The Mayday Network to discuss latest scoop from The Guardian on Brendan Carr's Sex Cult past. https://substack.com/@redpencilscript

Per The Guardian, Trump's FCC Chair Brendan Carr — who is only 47, despite looking like he's been drafting broadcast regulations since the Reagan administration — spent nearly a decade, starting at age 17, inside a rogue Washington D.C. Alcoholics Anonymous group called Midtown. At the center of it was Michael Quinones, described by one former member as "the Epstein of AA."

Source: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2026/sep/22/fcc-chair-brendan-carr-midtown-aa-group

Brendan Carr, a MAGA extremist, has famously threatened to withdraw broadcasters’ licenses over news coverage that he finds "unfair" to Donald Trump. One former member of the cult said “A man who has the power to control what types of stories the mainstream public have access to is a man who should expect the narrative of his own life to fall under scrutiny.

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 – Intro +Welcome Ellie Leonard 0:46 – Setting up Brendan Carr and why the FCC chair matters 1:25 – The "Midtown" AA group: sex cult allegations 4:00 – The French fry story: Carr as the group's "safe space" 4:32 – Parallels to Scientology and other high-control groups 9:41 – The real issue: sneaking fries treated as heroism, not complicity 10:38 – Epstein parallel: staff who saw abuse and stayed silent 14:33 – How addiction, isolation, and coercion made girls vulnerable 22:35 – Quinones's own words: the group leader's predatory quote 24:38 – Age-of-consent loophole allegedly exploited across state lines 27:44 – The moral case against Carr: sin of omission 29:32 – Carr's need for approval and his LSAT breakdown story 31:53 – MAGA as a replacement structure for his cult past 36:32 – Why community/belonging drives cult and MAGA adjacency 44:11 – Trump's naming obsession as a parallel authoritarian pattern 50:33 – Why this story isn't over — more accusers likely 55:16 – Personal stories: Ellie and Julie on normalized abuse growing up 59:16 – The arts/modeling pipeline and how predators used access as bait 1:11:07 – Christine Blasey Ford and the cost of speaking first 1:14:38 – Closing: Ellie's Substack, sign-off