After a summer hiatus, Will Brown and Adam Eagleston return to examine a market that appears to be reaching an important inflection point. They discuss the Federal Reserve's increasingly difficult balancing act as inflation remains stubbornly above target, government debt and interest payments continue to climb, and geopolitical tensions threaten to keep energy prices elevated. The conversation explores why these macroeconomic forces could shape the next phase of the market and what investors should be watching in the months ahead.

The episode also takes a deeper dive into the technology sector, where the AI investment boom continues to dominate headlines. Will and Adam question whether massive capital expenditures, lofty valuations, and aggressive accounting assumptions can continue to support today's market leaders. They examine the growing risks facing semiconductor companies, the role China may play in compressing industry margins, and why software and other fundamentally strong businesses may be poised to benefit as investors shift their attention back to sustainable earnings and disciplined execution.

Throughout the discussion, the hosts emphasize that periods when investing feels easy are often the most dangerous. As speculative enthusiasm begins to cool and market leadership broadens, they make the case that careful research, sound fundamentals, and a value-oriented approach are becoming increasingly important. It's a thoughtful conversation on separating durable opportunities from market hype while navigating an environment filled with economic uncertainty and rapidly changing market dynamics.

Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.

Summer is officially underway, and Will Brown and Adam Eagleston waste no time diving into the headlines shaping markets, energy, and investor sentiment. Against the backdrop of global soccer fever, the duo examines the recently announced Iran-related memorandum of understanding and what it could mean for oil prices, inflation, and the Federal Reserve. While markets initially cheered the agreement, Will and Adam explore the deeper supply-and-demand dynamics that could keep energy prices elevated and complicate the Fed's path forward.

The conversation then shifts to one of the market's hottest stories: the explosive rise of SpaceX and the broader AI-driven investment boom. Will and Adam discuss massive valuations, index inclusion decisions, leveraged ETF activity, and the growing concentration of market performance in a handful of technology and AI-related companies. Along the way, they raise important questions about capital spending, earnings quality, shareholder dilution, and whether investors are accurately assessing the risks embedded in today's most popular trades.

Wrapping up the episode, Will and Adam examine the increasingly interconnected nature of AI spending, corporate earnings, and index performance. They debate whether current growth expectations are sustainable, discuss the role of passive investing in amplifying market moves, and caution investors about the potential consequences if lofty expectations begin to crack. From oil markets and AI speculation to Fed policy and investor behavior, Will and Adam break it all down with their signature blend of insight, skepticism, and humor.

Topics Discussed:

• The Iran memorandum of understanding and its impact on oil markets
• Inflation, retail sales, and the Fed's policy challenges
• SpaceX's soaring valuation and market influence
• AI spending, capital expenditures, and earnings growth
• Index concentration and passive investing risks
• Equity issuance, shareholder dilution, and market speculation
• The outlook for technology stocks and broader market leadership
• Potential risks lurking beneath record market highs

Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.

In this episode of Tea and Crumpets, Will Brown and Adam Eagleston dive into a market that appears remarkably calm on the surface while a growing list of geopolitical and economic risks continues to build beneath it. From escalating tensions in the Middle East and concerns over global energy supply to record stock market levels and speculative enthusiasm surrounding AI and upcoming IPOs, our host explore the growing disconnect between market optimism and economic reality.

Will and Adam discuss the potential consequences of prolonged disruptions to global oil markets, including the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, declining energy inventories, and the possibility of a significant spike in oil prices. They examine how higher energy costs could ripple through the broader economy, impacting consumers, inflation, corporate earnings, and ultimately market valuations.

The conversation then shifts to the stock market's continued climb to all-time highs, fueled largely by AI-related investments and a handful of mega-cap technology companies. While acknowledging strong earnings growth among select firms, the Will and Adam question whether current valuations accurately reflect long-term realities, highlighting concerns around accounting treatment, capital expenditures, speculative behavior, and the growing influence of retail investors.

They also explore the changing structure of markets, the rise of passive investing, and the implications of major upcoming IPOs—including the highly anticipated SpaceX offering. They debate whether today's environment more closely resembles previous periods of technological innovation or the late stages of historical market bubbles.

Whether you're following global events, navigating today's markets, or simply trying to make sense of the headlines, this episode offers a thoughtful examination of the forces shaping the investment landscape—and the potential consequences if current trends continue.

Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.

In the 100th episode of Tea and Crumpets, Will Brown and Adam Eagleston celebrate the podcast's century mark by welcoming returning guest Kalee Kreider for a timely and expansive discussion on geopolitics, inflation, energy markets, and the growing disconnect between financial markets and economic realities on the ground. As Part 1 of this special two-part release, the conversation opens with reflections on reaching 100 episodes before quickly shifting into a deeper examination of the global and domestic pressures shaping the current economic environment.

Kalee offers a unique perspective from both Washington, D.C. and rural Tennessee, highlighting how rising fuel prices, fertilizer shortages, drought conditions, and increasing property taxes are putting mounting pressure on farmers and middle-income households. The discussion explores how disruptions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz could have long-lasting consequences across industries far beyond gasoline prices, including agriculture, plastics, semiconductors, transportation, and airline travel. The group also examines how energy infrastructure shutdowns are not easily reversible, warning that even if geopolitical tensions eased quickly, the process of restoring supply chains and production capacity could take months or years.

Throughout the episode, the trio debates whether markets and policymakers are underestimating the scale of the risks ahead, particularly as inflation remains persistent and consumers continue to feel squeezed despite stronger equity markets. The conversation touches on historical parallels to the mid-2000s economic cycle, the difficult position facing the Federal Reserve, and the possibility that demand destruction could eventually force rate cuts amid a slowing economy. Blending macroeconomic analysis with the humor and chemistry that have defined Tea and Crumpets over its first 100 episodes, Part 1 sets the stage for an even deeper continuation in Episode 101.

Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.

In Part 2 of this special 100th episode celebration of Tea and Crumpets, Will Brown and Adam Eagleston continue their wide-ranging conversation with returning guest Kalee Kreider, diving deeper into the political, economic, and cultural consequences of the current geopolitical and financial environment. Building on the themes from Episode 100, the discussion shifts toward the upcoming U.S. election cycle, the evolving identity crisis within both political parties, and the broader implications of polarization, redistricting, and shifting voter coalitions.

Kalee offers candid insight into why she believes Democrats are positioned to potentially retake both the House and Senate, while also cautioning that wave elections are rarely permanent and often produce only temporary political realignments. The conversation explores the changing nature of American politics, the future of Trump-era Republicanism, and whether Donald Trump represents a singular political figure or the beginning of a longer generational movement. The group also examines growing distrust in institutions and expertise following Covid, the influence of AI and technology on market psychology, and the increasingly fragile balance between economic optimism and geopolitical reality.

The episode expands into broader discussions around military spending, drone warfare, NATO, energy security, and the long-term consequences of global remilitarization as tensions with Iran continue to escalate. The hosts debate the resilience of the U.S. dollar, concerns surrounding government debt and deficits, and the possibility that markets are displaying what they repeatedly describe as "irrational optimism" in the face of mounting systemic risks. Despite the heavy subject matter, the conversation maintains the humor and chemistry that have defined Tea and Crumpets across its first 100 episodes, closing with stories about distilleries, horse racing, bourbon, farming, and family history that bring a lighter and more personal finish to the landmark two-part discussion.

Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.

In this episode of Tea and Crumpets, Will Brown and Adam Eagleston dive into a rapidly evolving geopolitical and economic landscape shaped by escalating tensions in the Middle East. With a fragile ceasefire in place and ongoing uncertainty surrounding key shipping routes like the Strait of Hormuz, the conversation explores how quickly conditions on the ground, and in the markets, are shifting. They highlight the difficulty of interpreting real-time information in an environment flooded with conflicting narratives and misinformation.

At the center of the discussion is the global energy market, where disruptions to oil supply chains are already creating ripple effects. Will and Adam unpack the complexities of oil pricing, the divergence between spot and futures markets, and the downstream consequences for inflation, supply chains, and consumer costs. They explain how restricted access to critical shipping lanes and selective distribution of oil are distorting global trade flows, while also emphasizing how energy shocks historically increase the likelihood of recession.

Beyond energy, the episode expands into broader economic risks, including weakening consumer sentiment, a softening labor outlook, and structural challenges tied to AI disruption and private credit markets. Will and Adam outline three major threats facing the economy (geopolitical conflict, financial system fragility, and workforce disruption) while also acknowledging the surprising resilience of equity markets so far. Despite the uncertainty, they close with a balanced perspective: volatility may create meaningful risks, but it also opens the door for selective opportunities in a rapidly changing investment landscape.

Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.

In episode 98 of Tea and Crumpets, Will Brown and Adam Eagleston address a rapidly unfolding geopolitical and market situation, as well as the broader assumptions investors have been relying on. What begins as a discussion of escalating tensions in the Middle East quickly turns into a deeper examination of how fragile global energy infrastructure, shifting policy decisions, and uncertain military outcomes are colliding in real time. The hosts highlight how quickly sentiment can swing, with markets reacting sharply to both escalation and temporary de-escalation, underscoring just how sensitive the current environment has become.

The conversation then moves into the structural implications of sustained disruption. Will and Adam explore the cascading effects of constrained oil supply, damage to critical infrastructure, and the logistical challenges of restarting energy production once it's been halted. They emphasize that even without further escalation, the duration of the conflict alone introduces long-term risks, particularly in energy markets, inflation expectations, and global trade flows. These pressures are already beginning to surface in bond markets and interest rate expectations, raising concerns that higher inflation could become more entrenched and more difficult to manage.

Beyond geopolitics, the episode widens its lens to include additional stress points building beneath the surface. The hosts discuss the potential for forced asset sales by sovereign wealth funds, the growing complexity and opacity of private credit markets, and the role artificial intelligence is playing in reshaping labor markets and corporate behavior. Together, these factors create a market environment defined less by a single narrative and more by a widening range of possible outcomes, making traditional forecasting increasingly difficult and reinforcing a more cautious approach to risk.

Throughout the episode, Will and Adam stress that uncertainty, not just negative news, is the dominant force shaping markets today. They encourage investors to remain disciplined, avoid reactionary decisions, and focus on positioning portfolios for resilience rather than chasing past winners. As the episode concludes, they leave listeners with a clear message: this is a moment that demands attention, patience, and a willingness to adapt as conditions continue to evolve.

Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.

In this episode of Tea and Crumpets, Adam Eagleston and Will Brown examine a rapidly evolving global environment where geopolitics, energy markets, and structural risks in finance are colliding. The discussion begins with the escalating conflict involving Iran and Israel and the immediate shock to global oil markets, where prices surged dramatically before partially retracing. Adam and Will explore how disruptions to Middle Eastern energy infrastructure and shipping routes could tighten global supply, increase inflation pressure, and complicate monetary policy decisions for the Federal Reserve.

The conversation then shifts to deeper vulnerabilities within financial markets. The hosts highlight growing concerns in private credit, where opaque lending structures and redemption pressures are beginning to surface across large institutional funds. They discuss how these off-balance-sheet lending vehicles have expanded rapidly and may introduce systemic risk if underlying assets are forced to be repriced.

Adam and Will also analyze the economic impact of artificial intelligence, particularly its potential to disrupt employment and reshape the software sector. While AI could improve productivity and corporate margins, it may also accelerate job displacement and create unexpected pressure across industries that rely heavily on knowledge workers.

Throughout the episode, the hosts stress the importance of remaining vigilant in a market environment filled with uncertainty—from geopolitical escalation to structural financial stresses. They conclude by discussing what indicators they are watching closely and how investors should think about risk management as events continue to unfold.

Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.