In this insightful podcast episode, Tucker Maxwell from Guild Mortgage joins Dan Edwards of The Seattle Real Estate Team to break down the 2026 housing market outlook, with a special focus on the Seattle/Puget Sound region and broader U.S. trends.
The discussion kicks off with interest rates, where the experts explore forecasts showing 30-year fixed mortgage rates likely averaging around 6.0% to 6.3% throughout 2026—potentially dipping below 6% at times—thanks to expected Federal Reserve actions, cooling inflation, and economic factors. This represents a modest improvement from recent levels, unlocking more buyer affordability and qualifying power without returning to pandemic-era lows.
They then dive into whether 2026 will feel like a buyer's market, highlighting a shift toward more balanced conditions. With growing inventory (projected increases of 9% or more nationally), moderating home price growth (often 1-3% or even flatter in Seattle), and slightly more negotiating leverage for buyers, the market is transitioning away from the extreme seller advantages of recent years—offering greater selection and opportunities, especially for first-time buyers leveraging incentives like rate buydowns or grants.
Finally, the episode covers overall market activity, with expectations of increased home sales (ranging from 3-14% nationally, and similar upticks in the Puget Sound area) as lower rates and improved supply draw more participants off the sidelines. The conversation emphasizes a more stable, strategy-driven year—neither a boom nor a bust—where confident buyers and realistic sellers can thrive amid gradual recovery and better affordability conditions.
Tune in for expert perspectives from a seasoned mortgage professional and a top local real estate leader on what buyers, sellers, and investors should prepare for in the year ahead!
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19 min