It's Budget eve, the UK property market is supposedly dead, and the goose of choice looks like the banks. Adam works through the leaks, the landlord angle and what the data says about mortgage rates and house prices.

Recorded the day before John Healey's first Budget, this is the round-up of the past eight days. The reported leaks (fuel duty frozen, the minimum wage up to £13.20 an hour, an extra £1bn for social and affordable housing), the long-overdue case for re-rating local housing allowance, and why a tax on undeveloped land might be the curveball.

Then Trump watch, with Brent closing at $116.72 and Hormuz still the pinch point, plus Andy Burnham on defence spending, the EU and the polls. Chris Watkin's numbers answer the week's big question: the market isn't dead. It's running about 8% below normal, and what's actually dying is overpricing.

The macro-scope covers unemployment at 4.7%, inflation at 3.5% in what Adam calls a "3% world", and why a 10-year gilt at 5.37% against a 3.6% average cost of debt will matter for years. Plus Charlie Munger's reminder that people behave as they're incentivised. Economics first, politics second.

In this episode:
(00:00) Budget eve: plucking the goose
(02:30) The leaks: fuel duty, minimum wage and £1bn for housing
(11:30) Help to Buy 2.0, pensioners and the £100k cliff edge
(20:30) Local housing allowance and a land tax curveball
(28:00) Zoopla and the London bloodbath
(32:00) Trump watch: oil, Hormuz, the Fed and the AI bubble
(42:30) Burnham, defence, the EU and the polls
(51:30) Chris Watkin's real-time numbers: is the market dead?
(62:00) The macro-scope: jobs, inflation and the 3% world
(77:00) Gilts, swaps and the 6.5% limited company fix
(80:00) PBW13 and the Budget for the bloody-minded
(86:30) Price it right on day one: KCCO

Next workshop: PBW13, Birmingham, Thursday 7th January 2027.
Join Adam and Rod Turner for a full day on strategic planning, productivity, systems and processes, and financial management and reporting. Interactive, with materials to take away. Grab a VIP dinner ticket for proper time with Adam and Rod.
Book here: https://www.tinyurl.com/AdamRod27

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Subscribe to the Sunday Supplement: https://www.linkedin.com/newsletters/propenomix-sunday-supplement-7164384154992771072/
Follow Adam on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/adamglawrence/
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More from Propenomix: https://propenomix.com/

2.1% growth nobody mentioned, Chris Watkin's week 40 numbers, $110 oil and a quiet Budget run-up.

The UK economy grew 2.1% over the last year and almost nobody mentioned it. Recorded nine days before John Healey's first Budget, this week asks what that means for UK property, mortgage rates and rents.

Jim O'Neill told the Treasury Committee that the most important thing about this Budget is that it doesn't screw anything up. Adam agrees, and gives the government credit for keeping the kite-flying down this time. The stories so far are small beer: income tax rather than CGT on redeemable shares passed to the next generation, the small business rates relief threshold rising from £12,000 to £18,000, and CGT talk that would only feel fair with indexation or taper relief back.

Rightmove's average new asking price is £371k, yet 38% of London listings have cut their price. Chris Watkin's week 40 numbers show net sales 6.3% behind 2025 and running at roughly 92% of normal, with a pricing gap of 17.8%. Struggling, yes. Crashing, no. (Find Chris on YouTube at @ChrisWatkin.)

Trump watch takes in $110 Brent, attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, a Fed decision on Budget day and a sharp AI-driven tech sell-off. The macro-scope asks why the forecasters keep getting UK growth wrong, and whether the 3% inflation world is now nearer a 2.5% one.

Then rent versus buy. Both take about 30% of gross income, but the average private renting household earns around £35k against about £60k for first-time buyers. Rightmove puts gross yields at 6.6% across Great Britain and 8.3% in the North East, and Solihull tops the rent hotspots, up 26% on the year. With swaps around 4.65%, Adam still sees limited company mortgages costing 6.5% to 6.75% in six months' time.

It closes with the cost of building a home, up £76,000 since before the pandemic according to the Prosper UK Housing Commission, the new high loan-to-income mortgage rules that start on Budget day, and, as ever, KCCO.

In this episode:
(00:00) The 2.1% nobody talks about
(12:00) Rightmove asking prices and the London squeeze
(17:00) Budget kite-flying: family firms, business rates and CGT
(32:00) Markets, LinkedIn round-up and the week ahead
(40:00) Trump watch: $110 oil, the Fed and the AI sell-off
(55:00) Chris Watkin's real-time numbers: struggling, not crashing
(1:07:00) The macro-scope: 2.1% growth and the forecasters
(1:18:00) Rent vs buy, yields and the rent hotspots
(1:31:00) Gilts, swaps and the 6.5% to 6.75% outlook
(1:33:00) PBW13 Birmingham: the next workshop
(1:34:00) A quiet Budget run-up and the cost of building homes
(1:37:00) High loan-to-income mortgages and KCCO sign-off

▶ Next workshop: Property Business Workshop 13, Birmingham, Thursday 7th January 2027
Adam and Rod Turner spend a full day on strategic planning, productivity, systems and processes, and financial management and reporting, with whatever the Budget changes built in. Super early bird tickets are still more than 20% off face value, and the VIP dinner is where the best chat happens.
Book here: www.tinyurl.com/AdamRod27

* * *
Subscribe to the Sunday Supplement: https://www.linkedin.com/newsletters/propenomix-sunday-supplement-7164384154992771072/
Follow Adam on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/adamglawrence/
Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@propenomixwithadamlawrence
More from Propenomix: https://propenomix.com/

Is the UK property market really dead? Chris Watkin's real-time data says no. It's slow, choosy and oversupplied, but still agreeing sales at around 92% of the normal rate.

This week Adam works through the numbers behind the crash talk. The budget lands on Wednesday 28th October, and markets are pricing roughly an 80% chance of a rate rise on 5th November. With the 10-year gilt at 5.45% and five-year swaps at 4.73%, new mortgage debt is heading for 6.5% to 6.75%. That's why a property yielding about 6.75% gross, on a 3.28% mortgage with a year left to run, has gone on the sell list.

Also this week: the IFS's £36bn gap, mansion tax and the triple lock. Kensington and Chelsea prices down 26% since September 2022, and why the exit tax question may be behind it. Flat Lloyds prices, a RICS price balance of minus 32, and PMIs still growing but not hiring.

Then the deep dive: who's really paying the rent? The Joseph Rowntree Foundation and Onward have rival plans for local housing allowance, one with rent controls attached and one without. There's also Awaab's Law and the pension money moving into build to rent.

It opens with Nye Bevan in 1946, on being judged in ten years' time by the type of houses we build. It closes, as ever, with KCCO.

In this episode:
(00:00) Rates bite: Bevan, the housebuilders and landlords selling
(11:00) Budget countdown: the £36bn gap, mansion tax, triple lock
(19:00) Polling after conference season
(21:00) Trump watch: diesel, Iran and the midterms
(28:00) Chris Watkin's real-time numbers: is the market dead?
(32:00) Kensington's 26% fall and the exit tax question
(39:00) PMIs, Lloyds and RICS: flat prices, weak sentiment
(52:00) Gilts, swaps and the 6.75% backstop
(68:00) Deep dive: LHA, rent controls, JRF vs Onward
(83:00) Awaab's Law, enforcement and build to rent
(89:00) KCCO sign-off

▶ Next workshop: Property Business Workshop 13, Birmingham, Thursday 7th January 2027
Adam and Rod Turner spend a full day on strategic planning, productivity, systems and processes, and financial management, bookkeeping and reporting. It's a chance to start 2027 with your numbers in order, a few weeks after the budget has rewritten some of them. The super early bird offer is on now: a genuine 20% off face value.
Book here: www.tinyurl.com/AdamRod27

* * *
Subscribe to the Sunday Supplement: https://www.linkedin.com/newsletters/propenomix-sunday-supplement-7164384154992771072/
Follow Adam on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/adamglawrence/
Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@propenomixwithadamlawrence
More from Propenomix: https://propenomix.com/