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In this exclusive episode of Global Trade Deciphered, Justin Hayden Miller is joined by Chad Bown, former Chief Economist at the U.S. State Department under Biden-Harris and Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, Soumaya Keynes, leading FT columnist and former Economics Editor at The Economist, and

They dissect the real mechanics of trade wars in 2026: President Trump’s tariffs on almost everyone, the deeper China challenge, the breakdown of the WTO rules-based system, and their view why China’s non-market subsidies and state-owned enterprises creates issues for dispute settlement.

The conversation examines trade strategy through the lens of real wars — defence, logistics, vulnerabilities, stockpiling — and the attack phase of tariffs and controls. They explore companies as reluctant or obedient “soldiers” in these conflicts, Europe’s simultaneous battles with Chinese EV and solar floods alongside U.S. tariff pressure, and the evidence on whether tariffs actually deliver the terms-of-trade gains economic theory once promised.

Soumaya Keynes — great-great-niece of John Maynard Keynes — reflects on how geopolitics is forcing economics to evolve, citing new research by Christopher Clayton and Jesse Schrager on supply-chain concentration and weaponised dependencies.

Chad Bown draws on White House Situation Room experience to test what a smarter, China-focused strategy might look like.

Essential listening for business leaders, policymakers and supply-chain strategists who need to understand the new rules of global trade before the next tariff headline lands.

Published by Simon & Schuster, How to Win a Trade War is out today.

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*Disclaimer: This podcast is simply for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not in way constitute legal, business, financial or other advice whatsoever. Should you require advice then please seek such from an appropriately qualified professional, explaining your specific circumstances.

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From 1 July 2026 the EU is scrapping its €150 customs de minimis threshold. Cheap parcels just died. Every low-value package from outside Europe now faces a new flat-rate €3 customs duty per product type — plus France’s extra €2 “"taxe sur les petits colis" (TPC) and a potential patchwork of national fees.

In this episode I explain exactly why the EU followed Trump’s lead to abolish De Minimus, how Temu and Shein gamed the old system with 91% of small parcels from China, and why even experts can’t keep up with the constant rule changes.

The Paradox Bomb: Rules designed to make trade fairer and crush e-commerce fraud are actually making everything more complicated, more expensive, and potentially hurting the very businesses and consumers they were meant to protect.

So what for business leaders? Higher friction costs, a massive incentive to shift to EU fulfilment centres instead of direct shipping from the UK, US or Asia. Listen to the podcast for more details.

If you send or receive small packages to Europe — e-commerce, cross-border gifts, online shopping — this is essential listening.

Keywords / Tags: EU de minimis 2026, end of €150 threshold, low value packages customs, low value consignments, small parcels EU, customs duties July 2026, Temu, Shein , EU rules, e-commerce imports Europe, cheap parcels, EU customs changes 2026, global trade podcast.

IMPORTANT NOTE: This episode does not constitute advice in any form. Get expert advice from an expert, specific to your circumstances, before relying on any information contained in this episode. Rules, legislation, practice guidance and thresholds can also change.

The content of this podcast is intended only to provide an information resource of interest and does not constitute legal, tax, business, or financial advice of any kind. Should you require advice, engage an appropriately qualified person. Views expressed are my own.

Subscribe to Global Trade Deciphered for unfiltered briefings on the policies, trends and geopolitics reshaping global trade. Share with anyone who’s ever cursed at a parcel notification.

Photo credit: Photo Credit: Breathe Icon Team: Sebastian Porta, Cory Kontros, Andrew Starr-Bochicchio, licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0

If you like the podcast, please subscribe so you don't miss any episodes and leave a rating. Also tell friends and colleagues about it so the podcast can grow.

*Follow Justin on X: @JustinHaydenM

or contact us by email at GlobalTradeDeciphered@gmail.com

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*Disclaimer: This podcast is simply for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not in way constitute legal, business, financial or other advice whatsoever. Should you require advice then please seek such from an appropriately qualified professional, explaining your specific circumstances.

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📌 Digital Tariffs 2026: WTO E-Commerce Moratorium Dies – Customs Duties on Netflix, SaaS & Data Now Possible | Fireside Chat

The 28-year WTO ban on customs duties for electronic transmissions has just lapsed. For the first time since 1998, countries can now tax downloads, streaming (Netflix, Spotify), e-books, SaaS subscriptions, cloud data transfers and every other electronic flow — exactly like physical goods.

In this relaxed Fireside Chat, Justin Hayden Miller breaks down:

• Why this is “MEGA” for businesses and consumers (and why the US and EU fought so hard to keep it)
• The new patchwork of digital border rules that compliance teams will have to track
• Why this changes everything we thought we knew about customs in the 21st century
• Plus: latest Hormuz crisis update, aversion therapy strategy, Suez & Panama chokepoints, UNCTAD trade figures, and what it all means for global supply chains

A genuine “Paradox Bomb” episode: in the age of seamless digital globalisation, the rules designed to keep data borderless have just crumbled.

🎙️ Fireside Chat format — no script, straight talk from the armchair.

Send Justin a voice message or fan mail directly from this episode page (link at the top of the description) — he reads and replies to every one.

The content of this podcast is for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal, tax or financial advice. Always consult a qualified professional for your specific situation.

#DigitalTariffs #WTO #EcommerceMoratorium #GlobalTrade2026 #HormuzCrisis #SupplyChainRisk

If you like the podcast, please subscribe so you don't miss any episodes and leave a rating. Also tell friends and colleagues about it so the podcast can grow.

*Follow Justin on X: @JustinHaydenM

or contact us by email at GlobalTradeDeciphered@gmail.com

Sign up to our newsletter. (We won't spam you and will remove your email on your request.) https://substack.com/@globaltradedeciphered

*Disclaimer: This podcast is simply for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not in way constitute legal, business, financial or other advice whatsoever. Should you require advice then please seek such from an appropriately qualified professional, explaining your specific circumstances.