Russia has alleged an uncorroborated Ukrainian drone strike on President Putin’s Valdai residence, which analysts assess as a pretext to reject peace proposals and "reconsider" its position on negotiations. While the Kremlin issues inflated battlefield gains to project a collapsing Ukrainian front, it continues to pressure NATO's flank through reconnaissance flights and GPS-equipped balloons from Belarus entering Polish airspace. Additionally, Russia is advancing Iran’s ISR capabilities by launching several remote-sensing satellites into orbit.

China initiated "Justice Mission 2025," its largest military exercise encircling Taiwan, simulating port blockades and amphibious seizure rehearsals. To extend its A2/AD reach, the PLA tested the YJ-20 hypersonic anti-ship missile on Type 055 destroyers and is developing mobile electromagnetic catapults for launching low-observable drones from austere locations. Furthermore, China is systematically camouflaging ICBM launchers as yellow construction cranesto deceive satellite surveillance and complicate assessments of its nuclear posture.

Iran is facing severe economic instability and widespread protests after the rial hit a record low. Despite previous strikes on its infrastructure, Tehran is reportedly reconstituting its missile and nuclear programs, while signaling deterrence by threatening Hadid 110 drone attacks against U.S. bases.

Reporting on North Korea is limited to the potential transfer of Hwasal-1 cruise missiles to Russia.

1. https://apnews.com/article/iran-president-war-west-trump-netanyahu
2. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/12/27/iran-president-says-us-israel-europe-waging-full-fledged-war-on-country
3. https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-december-29-2025/
4. https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-29-2025/
5. https://www.cnn.com/2025/12/29/politics/cia-drone-strike-venezuela
6. https://www.sofx.com/china-launches-largest-ever-military-drills-around-taiwan/
7. https://en.defence-ua.com/industries/satellite_deception_china_disguises_nuclear_icbm_launchers_as_construction_cranes-16984.html
8. https://www.twz.com/news-features/yj-20-high-speed-anti-ship-missile-seen-in-action-on-chinas-type-055-super-destroyer
9. https://www.twz.com/news-features/is-this-chinas-truck-mounted-drone-launching-electromagnetic-catapult-system
10. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/12/29/protests-strikes-after-irans-economic-situation-rapidly-deteriorates

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