Alex Mercer and Marcus dive into a massive Monday board, hunting for mispriced probability on Polymarket. From the Sacramento injury crisis against the Lakers to the Oilers' massive edge over a depleted Blackhawks goalie room, we break down where the sharpest entries are hiding today.

We also analyze why the market is overvaluing the 76ers in Toronto and why the Mavericks offense is primed to feast on a Brooklyn unit missing Michael Porter Jr. Join us as we dissect the data, net ratings, and turnover rates to find the real alpha on today's slate.

For feedback, reach out to: feedback@predictionmarketshq.com

Opinions expressed are for informational purposes only. Bet responsibly.

"Jerry Five" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com)
Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 License
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

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Alex Mercer and Lead Analyst Marcus Webb dive into a high-volume weekend, dissecting a 44-15 record that saw significant profit but missed opportunities for maximum alpha. The team explores why standard spread contracts failed to capitalize on structural mismatches in OKC and Philadelphia matchups.

Key Highlights

• The Alpha Gap: Why a 74% win rate still required a calibration review for more aggressive Alt-Spread positioning.
• Roster Gravity: Analyzing how the absence of Jokic fundamentally broke the Nuggets' defensive sets against the 76ers.
• Market Friction: Lessons learned from the Wild vs. Kings game regarding the 'Cash Out' advantage in prediction markets.
• Strategic Evolution: A first look at the LATE_SEASON_MOTIVATION_ROSTER_DEVIATION hypothesis for betting on depleted rosters.

For questions or feedback, contact us at feedback@predictionmarketshq.com

Opinions expressed are for informational purposes only. Bet responsibly.

"Jerry Five" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com)
Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 License
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Read Transcript

The Sunday night window is heating up, and we are tracking the latest movements in the prediction markets to find the sharpest edges before the lines close. From a high-risk moneyline play in the NFL to pace-driven totals in the NBA, this episode covers the essential data you need to manage your evening portfolio.

• A deep dive into the Chargers vs. Patriots primetime matchup and the defensive metrics favoring a potential upset.
• Why Giannis Antetokounmpo is poised for a massive night against a depleted Denver interior.
• Pace analysis for the Heat and Thunder total as Miami's offensive tempo continues to climb.

Feedback? Email us at: feedback@predictionmarketshq.com

Opinions expressed are for informational purposes only. Bet responsibly.

"Jerry Five" Kevin MacLeod (incompetech.com)
Licensed under Creative Commons: By Attribution 4.0 License
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Read Transcript