I’ve talked to a lot of really intelligent, analytical people, left, right and center, and nobody believes Republicans will keep both the House and the Senate. It’s a silly scenario. Dismissed. That leaves two possibilities: “win in name only,” with Democrats gaining 15 House seats and taking control but falling short in the Senate, or “my blue heaven,” with Democrats gaining more than 15 House seats and taking the Senate, too. On a bad map, that would be quite a big deal. A lot of the states now in play voted for Donald Trump by eight, nine, ten, fifteen points and up.

As I think about my prediction, I can’t help but have Chuck Schumer on my mind. He didn’t begin the second Trump term feeling good. His party had lost the Senate, and other Democrats thought he was asleep at the wheel, part of an older generation that wasn’t going to get things done. He was forced into positions he wouldn’t otherwise have taken. He had to shut down the government twice after repeatedly destroying Republicans for doing exactly that. He’d been the adult in the room, and now, he had to righteously shake his fist in anger. That might not seem like a big deal, but senators take pride in their records. Every vote matters. Trust me — they keep track.

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But even while he was embattled, Schumer hung on to probably his most defining foreign policy position: his support for Israel. He also has a long history of supporting corrective action against Iran, specifically in tandem with Israel and particularly over a buildup of missiles. Then the president ordered military strikes on Iran. That’s a tremendously unpopular position within Schumer’s party, so there’s only so much he can say publicly. But I’d have to imagine privately he wasn’t sad about it. And then a funny thing happens.

That war spiraled into a series of blockades, driving up the price of almost everything in America and sending Trump’s approval ratings through the basement. Schumer went from being chased around by his own party to getting his cake and eating it, too: a war with Iran, and he gets to run against it. It’s good to be Chuck. Suddenly Democrats are asking whether they can win Texas, Iowa, Kansas, Mississippi or South Carolina. If only a few fall their way, Schumer gets to be Senate majority leader again.

And when it comes to my prediction? I think he will.

I’ve stuck with “win in name only” this entire time. I correctly picked Trump and the Republicans in 2024, and I’ve had to be dragged toward changing my mind now. But here’s the thing: I thought we’d see the polls close as Election Day approached. I expected Republican enthusiasm, in a time as polarized as this, to pick up as voters started thinking about Supreme Court nominations and the possibility of losing Texas. I thought they’d press their voter advantage in these states. But we haven’t seen it. At a certain point, intellectual honesty requires a decision: Do I believe we’re in a polling-error cycle where everybody is wrong, or do I believe this tsunami real?

I don’t quite understand a polling environment that puts Trump below where he was after January 6th, and I don’t fully believe Texas will flip blue. But my final prediction is that Democrats will gain more than 15 House seats and win at least 51 Senate seats. Schumer becomes majority leader again. This is an eleventh-hour change of heart, but I think my blue heaven is going to happen: a Democratic Senate and a Democratic House.

Chapters

00:00:00 - Intro

00:02:05 - Final CNN Polling

00:05:24 - Interview with Reese Gorman

00:40:43 - Economy Growth

00:42:36 - California Ballots

00:44:25 - Vivek-Acton Polling

00:47:04 - Justin’s Final Predictions

00:57:10 - Wrap-up

I drove from Austin to Waco along I-35, one of the most heavily traveled corridors in Texas, and James Talarico is dominating the billboard game. I don’t love the billboards themselves because the text is too small to read safely from a distance, but the themes are smart and clear: Talarico will protect healthcare, and Talarico will lower costs. One is the issue of the day — affordability — and the other is an issue Democrats are generally trusted on.

Ken Paxton was almost nonexistent. The biggest Republican billboard I saw looked like something a random person had purchased: “Democrats now support communism, and Republicans don’t.” That belongs more on your uncle’s Facebook page than a gigantic roadside billboard. I don’t know how much billboards matter, but when these campaigns and their super PACs are spending roughly half a billion dollars, it’s worth noting that one side is buying more of them.

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The obvious Republican voters I met in Waco knew Paxton, had been in rooms with him, and didn’t like him. They were Cornyn voters and wished they could vote for Cornyn again. But they’re still voting for Paxton because they view Talarico as that odious. Outside Austin, people see the city as a problem and Talarico as a product of that problem. I’ve officially concluded that Paxton is running a bad campaign and deserves to lose. Based solely on his campaign, Talarico should become the next senator from Texas. I still don’t think he will.

Now for my semiannual warning: Looking at early-voting trends is bad, and only bad people do it. They don’t reliably predict final results, and partisans use them to create engagement or scare people into voting. That said, Democrats ran through the brick wall on opening day. In North Carolina, Democrats cast roughly 327,000 votes to Republicans’ 151,000. Georgia’s opening-day turnout was up 40 percent from 2022. Iowa Republicans held the majority of returned ballots, while Texas saw nearly record first-day voting. These are good signs for Democrats, but we don’t know whether they represent a continuing freight train or enthusiastic voters casting their ballots early and leaving the rest of the electorate to revert to normal patterns.

The dirty ads are also arriving. An anti-Amy Acton video raised her estrangement from her mother, allowing Acton to explain that her mother sided with a man Acton says molested her as a child. That seems like an extraordinary gift to Acton. In Maine, an ad against Troy Jackson includes the lyric, “If he’ll F his own family, he’ll F yours too.” In Texas, an ad attacks Brandon Herrera — the “AK Guy” — for demonstrating weapons connected to high-profile crimes, including the Uvalde shooting in the district he wants to represent. This is playoff-caliber filth.

Then there’s the apparent sequel to the unsolicited Texas text messages promoting transgender healthcare. A new flyer presents itself as trans advocacy, directs minors toward legal organizations and out-of-state care information, and advertises events around Texas. I have no idea whether any of it is authentic. But in 2024, we saw one organization run opposing messages on Israel to shake up a race, and that effort was eventually traced to Elon Musk. This is only an unqualified guess — a feeling-the-Force thing — but I suspect America PAC, or a group funded by it, may be behind these messages.

Chapters

00:00:00 - Intro

00:02:59 - Waco

00:09:22 - Early Election Results

00:13:40 - Crazy Midterm Ads

00:22:57 - Andrew Heaton on Libertarians

00:58:48 - Update

00:59:44 - Ukraine

01:03:09 - Republicans’ Red Wall Defense

01:06:45 - Supreme Court and Distilling

01:07:58 - Laurence Leamer on JFK’s Mistresses

01:32:34 - Wrap-up

Two-thirds of Israeli voters had cast ballots four hours before polls closed Tuesday, the highest turnout at that stage since 1973, according to Axios. Election officials ordered polling stations to accelerate voting after reports of long lines, saying anyone arriving by 10 p.m. local time would be allowed to cast a ballot. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seeks another term, with 61 seats needed for a parliamentary majority. This is Israel’s first election since the October 7th attacks in 2023.

I’m not going to pretend that I’m an expert in the Knesset or Israeli coalitions, which will essentially decide who becomes prime minister. It does seem, at this hour, that Netanyahu will end his extraordinarily consequential reign at the helm of that nation — one that looked like it was over right before October 7th. I don’t know if the guy coming in will make anybody who didn’t like Netanyahu happier. The issues they seem to disagree on are more domestic issues, not what Americans who talk about Israel a lot particularly care about. He’s probably more aligned with Netanyahu on prosecuting the war in Gaza, at the very least. The question would be how far it extends into Iran and what victory against Iran would be defined as.

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Still, if this is indeed the end for Bibi, it’s been a hell of a ride. I don’t know if anybody other than Ben-Gurion and Golda Meir would be more consequential leaders for that nation, but I’d leave that up to the Israeli scholars. We don’t know the outcome yet, but it does, at least right now, look like curtains for Netanyahu.

Meanwhile, President Trump has changed the list of Canadian products subject to an additional 50% tariff, with revisions taking effect Friday, October 30th. A proclamation on the 23rd removes some products from duty and adds others. Republican Susan Collins says nine exempted categories will help Maine’s blueberry, potato, apple and seaweed industries. Those categories include packaging materials, refrigeration equipment and agricultural machinery. The exemptions apply to the additional duty imposed over Canada’s treatment of American vehicles. Separate tariffs remain in place.

There’s also late-breaking reporting that negotiations are underway to try to avert some of the steel tariffs between the two countries. I’ve thought this would be brought to a brink and then eventually resolved. I tend to still think that’s the case, but we’re getting a little late in the innings to assume so.

Finally, Marco Rubio said street protests wouldn’t produce democracy in Venezuela following opposition leader María Corina Machado’s return to Caracas. Machado is demanding elections in 2027, while U.S. officials want changes to the Supreme Court and Electoral Council, along with progress on debt, before a vote. Rubio said the current authorities were meeting agreed deadlines but didn’t publicly specify an election date, warning against derailing the process.

Chapters

00:00:00 - Intro

00:02:18 - Midterm Map Madness, Part One

00:47:52 - Update

00:48:26 - Israel’s Elections

00:51:16 - Canadian Tariffs

00:52:36 - Venezuela

00:55:00 - Midterm Map Madness, Part Two

01:39:37 - Wrap-up

Mike Rogers is trying to tie Abdul El-Sayed to the Muslim Brotherhood, Hamas, Hezbollah and other radical Islamic organizations. El-Sayed isn’t known to be a Muslim Brotherhood member, but unearthed tweets from his sister suggest their mother helped organize or work with the group. Other parts of the attack rely on El-Sayed’s relationship with organizations like CAIR and the allegations Republicans have made against them.

Politically, the strategy makes sense. Rogers needs to split Black voters in Detroit and Jewish voters in the suburbs away from the Democratic coalition. He’s trying to make El-Sayed “more Arab” and exploit tensions inside that coalition. El-Sayed clearly understands the reputation problem — he’s already running ads with his white grandparents to reassure voters. But Michigan is reportedly a Democrat-plus-11 environment, and Republicans haven’t won a Senate race there in many years.

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Compare that with the attack Vivek Ramaswamy is running against Amy Acton in Ohio. His ad effectively asks voters to believe Acton’s estranged mother over her and to believe that a 12-year-old lied about being sexually assaulted. That’s supposed to prove Acton has always been a liar. It’s a deeply ugly message without the same kind of political logic behind it.

Trump endorsed the ad on Truth Social, and JD Vance defended it by saying the campaign wouldn’t have run it unless it thought the ad would work. That’s like farting and then defending the smell as proof of success. Vance went even further, trying to sell the gigantic crap on the rug as a feature of the Feng Shui.

Ramaswamy is running a bad campaign, and I don’t think he’s going to become governor of Ohio. John Husted is now in peril too, even after Sherrod Brown’s last campaign demonstrated that Ohio is a Republican state. The environment matters, but candidates can still make terrible decisions.

Chapters

00:00:00 - Intro

00:03:45 - Mike Rogers vs. Vivek Strategies

00:13:30 - Interview with Abby Turner

00:42:11 - Update

00:44:27 - DCCC

00:45:52 - Susie Wiles

00:49:44 - Canada Tariffs

00:50:58 - Interview with Ed Tarnowski

01:20:11 - Wrap-up

A race that should’ve barely garnered any attention outside its home state is turning into one of the hottest of the midterms, as Republican Senator Roger Marshall is in the fight of his life against Democrat Adam Hamilton. Six months ago, Democratic hopes for the Senate were centered on Maine, Ohio, and Michigan, maybe even Florida at the outer edges. Nobody was talking about Kansas. Now Emerson has Hamilton ahead 45–43, the New York Times/Siena poll has the race tied at 45, and YouGov has Hamilton leading 48–45. These are consistent, margin-of-error leads for a Democrat.

Marshall is a throwback religious conservative from the pre-Trump era who’s plugged himself into the MAGA universe through faith-and-family politics. He has the votes you’d expect, including a controversial one involving January 6. Hamilton is a centrist Democrat who founded his own church in 1990 with four people in a borrowed space. He’s using that religious background and his charisma as a leader of men to say, “I’m not asking you to vote for a Democrat. I’m asking you to vote for common sense.”

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Hamilton wants congressional approval for tariffs, more agricultural export promotion, and year-round guest-worker visas. Those positions push directly against Trump’s tariffs and hard-line immigration policies. Marshall, meanwhile, has to defend Trump during what’s being called “Farmageddon.” Diesel prices can only stay this high for so long. Restrictions on selling crops can only remain this punitive before farmers go crazy.

Marshall’s medical career has also become a liability. An investigation found that he sued more than 700 patients over unpaid medical debt, and court records showed 81 arrests after people missed court appearances connected to those cases. His side says the collections were necessary to sustain medical care and that nobody was criminally convicted simply for being unable to pay. But Hamilton has an effective ad featuring a woman who says she was arrested while eight months pregnant after missing a payment. “I’m a doctor” is usually a good political pitch. Marshall found a way to make it a negative.

This isn’t simply the national environment. Republicans face similar problems with farmers, diesel, and tariffs in Iowa, but Ashley Hinson is still leading her Democratic opponent and running ahead of the Republican gubernatorial candidate. Kansas is the combination of a bad environment and an incumbent who’s never been tested suddenly finding himself in the race of his life. The cavalry is arriving: Marshall has hired Chris Grant of Big Dog Strategies, and the Senate Leadership Fund is bringing in nearly $8.2 million, possibly redirected from Georgia and North Carolina. My gut says Kansas is much closer than it should be but doesn’t tip. Raw political gravity and the Republican registration advantage probably carry Marshall through. Maybe.

The broader Republican strategy is now triage. Two Republican super PACs are withdrawing support from Tom Kean Jr. and Mariannette Miller-Meeks, leaving both incumbents without the air cover they expected. Republicans aren’t trying to flip Democratic seats anymore; they’re defending their own and attempting to minimize the losses. Trump is even heading to Wasilla to campaign for Alaska Senator Dan Sullivan against Mary Peltola. Second-term presidents aren’t usually eager to do a full-court press, let alone fly to Alaska. Trump deserves credit for doing the work, but the fact that he’s campaigning in red states tells you where Republican priorities are. They’re no longer on offense.

Chapters

00:00:00 - Intro

00:02:45 - James Talarico

00:13:09 - Kimberly Guilfoyle

00:14:24 - Kansas Senate Race

00:25:30 - Update

00:26:22 - Republican Super PACs

00:27:25 - Trump Heads to Alaska

00:29:58 - DOGE

00:31:02 - Interview with Ryan McBeth

Former Texas House Speaker Dade Phelan recently said, “We’re still running transgender ads, and it’s just not resonating.” Republicans are trying to recreate the most iconic attack of 2024 — Kamala Harris is for they/them, Donald Trump is for you — by targeting James Talarico’s old progressive positions. But if the ads aren’t moving the polls and voters would rather discuss gas prices or inflation, what good are they? Maybe somebody decided to take the left-hand path and raise the issue’s salience another way.

Texans have begun receiving messages that say, “Questions about gender-affirming care in Texas? Start here. You can get the care you need,” followed by a link to the Transgender Education Network of Texas. That sounds like something a transgender advocacy organization might send. The problem is that TENT says it didn’t write, authorize, approve, or distribute the messages. The organization says it has received hate and threats, and it has sent cease-and-desist notices to two messaging companies while demanding to know who hired them. Republican State Representative Jeff Leach has asked Attorney General Ken Paxton to investigate.

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It seems pretty clear what somebody is trying to accomplish. Paxton needs every possible Republican to come home, hold their nose, and vote for him because the issues at stake are supposedly bigger than their dislike of Ken Paxton. I don’t know whether it’ll work, and we don’t yet know who paid for it, but this trick is dirty as hell. Trump is already preparing an explanation for a Paxton loss, naming John Cornyn and Karl Rove as the people he’ll blame. Meanwhile, Talarico just gave an extended television performance without any of the fogginess his critics had insinuated. He aced it 11 out of 10.

A Reuters survey also asked 26 Senate campaigns whether they would accept November’s results unconditionally. Fourteen said yes: nine Democrats, one independent, and four Republicans. Both major candidates in Alaska, Iowa, Maine, and New Hampshire agreed. Neither Talarico nor Paxton responded in Texas. This used to be simple. An agreed-upon arbiter called the race, the candidates spoke, and somebody conceded. Now we have little trust in the system and even less interest in rebuilding it. From Trump to Stacey Abrams and everybody in between, candidates who refuse to believe they lost should be shamed. You lost. You’re a loser. Run again and maybe you’ll become a winner.

The Justice Department has demanded that California segregate ballots belonging to people federal officials suspect aren’t citizens. California Secretary of State Shirley Weber says her office received no list and was given 48 hours to investigate. Los Angeles election officials received a password-protected thumb drive but hadn’t accessed it because of security protocols, and the Justice Department didn’t say how many people were involved. California disputes the demand’s legal basis and says being flagged doesn’t prove someone is ineligible or voted illegally. This connects directly to the collapse in trust: Trump’s side assumes California permits rampant illegal voting, while liberals have no incentive to treat anything from his administration seriously.

Finally, Social Security benefits will rise 3.6 percent in 2027, adding an average of $75 per month to retirement benefits. Nearly 72 million beneficiaries will receive the increase beginning in January, while higher payments for roughly 7.3 million Supplemental Security Income recipients begin December 31. The adjustment is calculated under federal law using an inflation index for urban wage earners and clerical workers. So if you’re looking for good news from inflation, at least Social Security recipients are getting more money.

Chapters

00:00:00 - Intro

00:04:19 - Texas Dirty Trick

00:10:28 - Interview with Karol Markowicz

00:51:36 - Update

00:54:10 - Accepting Election Results

00:55:48 - California Ballots

00:57:37 - Social Security

00:58:49 - Interview with Katie Harbath

01:42:29 - Wrap-up

Right now, the prediction markets have James Talarico at about 60–40, and the polling shows either a tied race or one where he’s slightly ahead of Ken Paxton. But I live in the most liberal enclave of Texas, and this doesn’t feel like Beto mania. You see Talarico signs around Austin, but you don’t see the same cultural energy. Maybe that’s by design. Talarico is trying to appeal more to the middle, and Beto lost in a favorable environment during Trump’s first midterm.

The biggest wind at Talarico’s back is the environment. Trump is historically unpopular, gas prices are high, inflation is persistent, and people are paying more to get the same or less. That’s a recipe for killing presidential and party momentum. It would help Republicans if they had a dynamic candidate, but Paxton is a big fat bullfrog who mostly sits on a log and puffs his neck. Mr. Saturday Night he isn’t, and his lack of charisma may be the least of his problems. He’s rife with scandal, including a divorce from his very loyal wife on biblical grounds.

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My crystallized view is that these are two weak candidates. Talarico is weak because of who he is: a slight guy from the most progressive place in a state that isn’t progressive, with years of statements from the legislature that can and will be used against him. He took progressive positions during a progressive age that are no longer fashionable. That would normally be enough to sink a candidate, but it hasn’t because I think he’s running a good campaign. The upside comparison is Brock Purdy — undersized, underqualified, carrying baggage from his past, but succeeding when he finally gets his shot.

Talarico’s campaign still seems unsure how to sell him. One ad puts him in a rocking chair on a front porch somewhere outside Austin, trying to reassure religious voters that he’s just like everyday Texans. But the chair’s back towers over his head, making an already slight candidate look even smaller. Paxton’s campaign, meanwhile, stinks on ice. Until MAGA Inc. and the Senate Leadership Fund arrived, he barely had a pitch. He doesn’t talk to the camera, doesn’t appear in his own ads, and hasn’t offered a basic argument about what he accomplished as attorney general. The outside groups are now doing that work for him.

The coalition problem cuts both ways. Talarico needs the Democratic city centers, Black voters around Houston, and Hispanics along the border who moved toward Trump in 2024. But Jasmine Crockett still hasn’t bridged the gap between Talarico and Black voters after losing the primary. She released an endorsement list without his name on it. Paxton needs the suburbs, rural Texas, and as many Trump-voting Hispanics as possible, but John Cornyn seems perfectly happy to watch him crash and burn after losing the Republican primary. Cornyn and Crockett should form the Sore Losers Guild.

So, does Talarico have a shot? Yes, but everything has to go right. He got the opponent, environment, and campaigns he wanted, but it’s like needing a coin to land tails 10 times — getting nine doesn’t matter if the last flip is heads. Texas remains highly polarized, voters still dislike the Democratic Party, the Republican advantage may improve if gas prices fall, and Democrats are being badly outspent. I don’t think backing Talarico is ridiculous, but with plus money available on a Republican in Texas, I’d feel like a real horse’s ass on election night if I passed it up.

Chapters

00:00:00 - Intro

00:02:45 - Texas

00:23:07 - Update

00:24:18 - America.gov

00:27:39 - Iran

00:32:32 - AI

00:34:28 - Interview with Juliegrace Brufke

01:15:34 - Wrap-up

A Democratic outside group called Defend the Vote has launched a $7 million statewide television campaign attacking Senator John Husted’s ties to data-center developers and making him the face of AI data centers in Ohio. Husted knows he’s vulnerable on this. That’s why he attached his name to the Ratepayer Protection Act, which was designed to prevent regular citizens from paying higher electricity costs because of data centers. The bill passed the House but failed procedurally in the Senate, 57–43, because it needed 60 votes.

Most people don’t really know why data centers are supposed to be bad beyond the fact that big tech wants them and nobody knows what that means for their community. There’s plenty of misinformation, but the issue has still become a galvanizing cross-party force. The strongest Democratic argument is to frame data centers as corruption — payback, kickbacks, graft, and politicians acting as supplicants to big tech. Otherwise, it’s mostly a NIMBY concern. But if that concern reaches the exurbs, Democrats will gladly take those votes because they don’t normally get them.

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Ohio used to be one of the swingiest swing states before moving firmly into the Republican column during the Trump era. Now it’s close again. One poll has Sherrod Brown leading Husted by nearly four points, another has him up eight, another has him up 2.6, and the latest has him ahead by one. The race appears to be narrowing, but this is still a state Trump won comfortably in 2024 and one where nobody spent much time, money, or effort trying to elect Kamala Harris.

Democrats may have an even better opportunity in the governor’s race. Amy Acton leads Vivek Ramaswamy by six points in one poll and nine in another, and she’s above 50 percent in both. Another poll has Ramaswamy ahead by one, so this isn’t universal, but we may be seeing the degradation of the Trump coalition — voters who believed in Trump’s brand of populism and now feel disillusioned or betrayed. Acton is also the more charismatic candidate. Ramaswamy is compelling when he’s on the attack, but when he isn’t tearing somebody down, he’s odd. He’s in this position because Trump was popular in Ohio. Now he may have to eat a gigantic sandwich full of excrement.

Democrats also appear to be addressing their money problem in the House. Their two main outside groups raised a combined $230 million during the third quarter, the best quarter they’ve ever had, bringing their cycle total to $514 million. House Majority PAC plans to spend more than $291 million on advertising before Election Day. Democrats were hurting, and now they’ll be able to play on the air. The question is where they can still buy space, because many of those slots were reserved months ago.

Trump, meanwhile, is using investment announcements and campaign visits to help vulnerable Republicans. He announced a $54 billion Alaska gas project with Senator Dan Sullivan and promoted a proposed $15 billion steel plant in Iowa alongside Ashley Hinson. I don’t think anyone will be able to say Trump was lazy during these midterms. The Republican fear was that he’d sense things were going badly, pull back, stop spending money, and start trashing his own candidates. Instead, he understands this is the last time he’ll be on the ballot, even by proxy, and he’s getting off his ass. Whether it’ll matter is another question.

Chapters

00:00:00 - Intro

00:01:57 - Ohio

00:09:06 - Update

00:09:40 - Dem Fundraising

00:11:35 - Reflecting Pool

00:12:46 - Trump’s Midterm Push

00:15:50 - Interview with Kirk Bado

00:55:05 - Emails and Wrap-up