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Plausibly Deniable

Plausibly Deniable

Di: Lukas and Saila
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A conversation about incentives, power, and the stories we tell ourselves to justify outcomes. Hosted by Lukas (https://x.com/SCHIZO_FREQ) and Saila (https://x.com/sailaunderscore) Sponsored by Polymarket, CitizenX and Network PressLukas and Saila
  • The Sensitive Old Man Problem
    Jun 26 2026

    Lukas and Saila return from San Francisco with takes on city discourse, scam calls, GLP-1s, power-law dating, Elon’s financial engineering, Polymarket political markets, RFK Jr., airport lounge arbitrage, SFO baggage purgatory, “not financial advice” disclaimers, pharmaceutical ads, weed, birth control, IQ-tiered libertarianism, and why every abstract argument eventually becomes a dating take.Sponsored by:Polymarket: https://polymarket.comZcash: https://z.cashCitizenX: https://citizenx.comNetwork Press: https://network.press_______________________________Plausibly Deniable: https://plausiblydeniable.orgLukas: https://x.com/SCHIZO_FREQSaila: https://x.com/sailaunderscore

    0:00 San Francisco safety, homeless discourse, and wanting something to happen3:00 Scam calls, robocalls, lost wallets, and why phones are unusable5:44 Intro, sponsors, and the first Plausibly Deniable employee8:30 Listener demographics, microwaving your brain, and PD setup talk10:00 The muted Bachelorette split-screen strategy10:43 San Francisco in the Twitter bio and coastal-elite accusations14:50 “Just pay the taxes, bro” and California cope18:18 GLP-1s, hunger, desire, alcohol, and biological side effects20:15 Hunger receptors, carbs, sleep, and social calibration23:20 Power laws in wealth, cities, dating, and status25:54 Elon Musk liquidity, SpaceX shares, and private-market weirdness28:00 Elon’s all-stock empire and the fake-perfect S-130:00 Low-float IPOs, crypto traders, and baby’s first pump33:24 Grocery shopping as the ideal first date35:00 Public anthropology, grocery-store flirting, and social passes40:14 Sensitive young men, sensitive old men, and the empath/sociopath problem41:39 Polymarket: Vance, Rubio, Tucker, Nikki Haley, and GOP nominee odds47:30 Democrats as the party of rich white women50:07 RFK Jr., Kennedy aura, voice problems, and outsider politics53:00 ER dehydration, DIY electrolyte ratios, Sprite, and Gatorade56:00 Why every abstract argument becomes a dating take57:37 Garden leave, severance, and explaining tech jobs to normal people58:48 Tracing Woodgrains, disclaimers, and “not financial advice”1:02:35 Pharmaceutical ads, WebMD sales pitches, and legal disclaimers1:03:59 Birth control, weed, fertility, and long-term health tradeoffs1:07:21 Libertarianism, paternalism, and unlocking drugs by IQ score1:07:58 The IQ-tiered drunk-driving proposal1:10:00 Alcohol, reaction time, weed concentrates, and useful hangovers1:11:30 Tracing Woodgrains, furries, lawyers, and credibility laundering1:14:40 Yudkowsky’s meme glasses and hostile interviews1:15:08 Guest screening calls and why podcasting is harder than people think1:18:03 Airport lounges, Amex economics, salmon, broccoli, and disgust-response flexing1:19:56 Dessert etiquette, eating disorders, and what not to say1:20:26 SFO baggage purgatory: Delta, United, and no actual ticket1:24:43 Explaining modern culture to boomers1:25:00 Escorts, dating, and embarrassing relationship structures1:28:56 Situationships as straight lavender marriages1:30:12 The life-checklisting meme1:33:21 GLP-1 relationship study and “relationshiped persons”1:35:04 Cohabitation, relationship definitions, and survey weirdness1:39:30 Podcasting as marriage theory1:40:32 The “Obsession” movie discourse1:45:12 Work mode, meetings, and lying about when you have to leave1:50:08 Friend-zoned men, bears, and male slave friends1:51:32 Girls in tech, attention complaints, and bad-faith incentives1:55:29 Allowing people dignity in relationships1:55:46 Instagram models, humiliation, and basic partner etiquette1:59:01 Twitter likes, relationships, and never getting too comfortable2:00:17 Twitter personas vs real-life personalities2:00:51 The new Chinese AI model, ZAI, and Lukas victory-lapping2:01:49 Closing

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    2 ore e 2 min
  • Bay Area House Party Epilogue
    Jun 11 2026

    Lukas records through food poisoning while the boys recap San Francisco, Bay Area house parties, Twitter people becoming real, unlimited oysters, Crime George, social minefields, Uber drivers, crypto trading, Modern Warfare 2, travel degeneracy, lost wallets, coconut water, Ray Peat breathing, Veblen goods, publicists, and whether having a podcast has made normal social interaction impossible.

    Sponsored by:

    Polymarket: https://polymarket.com

    Zcash: https://z.cash

    CitizenX: https://citizenx.com

    Network Press: https://network.press

    _______________________________

    Plausibly Deniable: https://plausiblydeniable.org

    Lukas: https://x.com/SCHIZO_FREQ

    Saila: https://x.com/sailaunderscore

    0:00 Crime George1:51 Welcome back / Lukas has the plague4:49 How Lukas somehow didn’t get sick earlier7:04 SF social life becomes dangerous9:11 Food poisoning as a weight-loss arc10:00 Peptides, Reda, and dysphoria12:20 Lukas gets white-pilled14:23 Bay Area house parties16:42 The suit hack at SF parties18:00 Unlimited oysters and suspicious abundance21:15 Meeting Twitter accounts in real life22:00 Everyone is lying about height23:00 San Francisco rent and income realities24:10 Looping AI overlays24:49 Is Lukas juiced?26:14 Walking 20,000 steps in SF26:43 Homeless biomes30:00 Crime George returns32:00 Disheveled podcasting35:00 Social climbing and SF party dynamics40:00 Podcast lore makes dating worse43:30 Grok as internet argument referee50:00 Uber drivers, market structure, and SpaceX IPOs55:00 The anti-social corner at the house party1:00:00 Lukas’s extreme sociability range1:02:00 Bay Area housing roulette1:05:00 Crypto trading styles1:10:00 Modern Warfare 2 nostalgia1:15:00 SF weather complaints1:20:00 Travel mode and neglected responsibilities1:25:00 Alcohol, hangovers, and forbidden tactics1:30:00 The bad airplane seatmate1:33:00 Losing the Amex card1:35:00 Recovering a lost wallet through Uber1:40:00 Coconut water and looksmaxxing accusations1:42:00 Ray Peat, bag breathing, and CO21:48:00 Veblen goods and luxury pricing1:51:00 Publicists and how articles happen1:55:00 Podcast listeners in the wild1:58:00 Respecting the audience / actual cut

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    1 ora e 59 min
  • Beyond Dual Citizenship: The Case for Becoming a Rootless Cosmopolitan
    Jun 6 2026

    NEED SOME PASSPORTS??https://citizenx.com/?ref=PlausiblyDeniableAlex from CitizenX joins Plausibly Deniable to explain the strange, funny, and increasingly important world of buying citizenship.We talk about why wealthy people are collecting passports, how citizenship by investment actually works, why Europe is cracking down on “golden passport” programs, and why more people are treating passports as geopolitical insurance. Alex breaks down the difference between residency, citizenship, and passports; the main tiers of citizenship programs; why El Salvador’s passport is different; and why places like Switzerland, Singapore, the UAE, Hong Kong, and the U.S. keep attracting millionaires even as the global order gets more unstable.We also get into exit taxes, global taxation, real estate risk, prepper psychology, offshore banking, prediction markets, insider trading rules, and why the best flex might not be a Rolex anymore — it might be seven passports.Sponsored by:Polymarket: https://polymarket.comZcash: https://z.cashCitizenX: https://citizenx.comNetwork Press: https://network.press_______________________________Plausibly Deniable: https://plausiblydeniable.orgLukas: https://x.com/SCHIZO_FREQSaila: https://x.com/sailaunderscore00:00 Passport flexing is the new Rolex flex00:46 Intro: Alex from CitizenX01:36 What CitizenX does03:00 Is “buying a passport” actually legal?05:51 Why the EU hates citizenship by investment07:11 Rich people want poor-country passports10:01 Who buys second passports?11:36 Crypto, trucker protests, and country risk12:46 Global taxation and FATCA14:34 The EU asset register17:15 Where wealthy people move19:12 Why UAE, Singapore, and Switzerland are hard to naturalize in20:49 Why Americans give up citizenship22:40 The decline of the U.S. passport25:12 Brazil, BRICS, and neutral passports27:31 The future of passports and individual surveillance29:28 The three tiers of citizenship programs30:49 The cheapest passports33:33 Caribbean citizenship programs36:29 Germany, conscription, and European demand38:45 Geopolitical chaos as passport marketing41:13 Pavel Durov, UAE citizenship, and state protection43:35 El Salvador’s million-dollar passport45:21 Where millionaires are moving48:10 How to design a good citizenship program53:00 What passport programs actually cost57:00 “Donation” vs buying citizenship1:01:00 Can you own too many passports?1:05:00 Passport portfolios and the ultimate flex1:09:00 Exit vs voice: preppers, bunkers, and passports1:13:00 Drafts, national identity, and exit planning1:18:00 Privacy, Swiss servers, and client secrecy1:23:00 Remote islands, Argentina, Uruguay, and Paraguay1:28:00 U.S. polarization and internal exit1:34:00 Passports as downside protection1:39:00 Real estate as national-risk exposure1:45:00 Prediction markets and forecasting1:50:00 Insider trading, regulation, and Polymarket1:56:00 Final riffs and outro

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    1 ora e 59 min
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