Perfect Storm for AUD as Fed Fears Surge and RBA Hikes Fade
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Perfect Storm for AUD as Fed Fears Surge and RBA Hikes Fade
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Wednesday 11th November 2026
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Phil and NAB’s Skye Masters assess a "perfect storm" that has pushed the US dollar higher and sent the Australian dollar tumbling 1.1% to 68.5 US cents. Hotter-than-expected US core CPI (0.3% MoM) and hawkish commentary from the Fed’s Christopher Waller and Lorie Logan have reignited expectations for further US policy tightening—driving 10-year Treasury yields up 12 basis points to 5.0% and sending 2-year yields surging 18–20 basis points. In contrast, softer domestic prints from the NAB Business Survey and a four-year low in Westpac Consumer Sentiment have led markets to aggressively pare back expectations of further RBA rate increases, with cash rate futures now pricing just 1.6 basis points of tightening for December and beginning to price in cuts by late next year. Phil and Skye also examine Wall Street's volatile tech action, the NFIB small business survey’s persistent labour-matching problem, China's surging trade figures, and crude oil’s ongoing slide as markets keep an eye on Middle East headlines.
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