Stijn Schmitz welcomes Chris Rutherglen to the show. Chris Rutherglen is PhD Scientist/Engineer, Level 3 CFA, and publisher ‘The Gold Investor Research’ Substack. Chris provides a comprehensive analysis of gold and silver market cycles, utilizing a scientific approach to forecasting price movements. He explains that gold typically moves through distinct cycles, with particular focus on the current “rate cut period” and potential future “quantitative easing (QE) period”. Using sophisticated analytical tools, he tracks gold’s price movements relative to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate changes and monetary supply.

Rutherglen suggests gold is approaching its fifth intermediate cycle high, with a potential target range of $4,900 to $5,200. However, he believes the market may extend to a sixth intermediate cycle, potentially reaching around $6,700. Looking further ahead, he proposes a more dramatic long-term projection of gold potentially reaching $24,000 in the 2030s, based on historical debt-to-money supply ratios. For silver, Rutherglen applies similar analytical methods, projecting potential prices around $840, though he emphasizes these are speculative estimates based on current monetary trends. He notes that silver’s current price, while seeming high, is relatively consistent with historical inflation-adjusted prices.

Chris highlights several key indicators for tracking these cycles, including call and put option volumes, central bank purchases, and the relationship between gold prices and moving averages. He stresses that a true QE period would likely require significant economic stress, prompting substantial monetary intervention. His analysis suggests the current gold bull market still has potential room to grow, with the most significant gains potentially occurring during the future QE period. Rutherglen recommends investors remain attentive to economic indicators and be prepared for potential market shifts. Listeners can find more detailed analysis on his Gold Investor Research Substack, where he provides weekly updates and in-depth reports on precious metals market cycles.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:00:51 – Gold Cycle Position Overview
00:06:11 – Rate Cut Period Dynamics
00:08:16 – Mid-Cycle Level Explained
00:12:40 – Government Debt Impact
00:18:04 – Sixth Intermediate Cycle
00:22:25 – Market Indicators Analysis
00:25:35 – Gold Price Targets
00:30:18 – Options Volume Insights
00:33:21 – East-West Gold Flows
00:36:05 – Central Bank Purchases
00:37:48 – Bull Run Projections
00:40:06 – Silver Price Analysis
00:48:01 – Concluding Thoughts

Guest Links:
Substack: https://giresearch.substack.com
X: https://x.com/CRutherglen

Chris Rutherglen is a private investor whose primary occupation is in science & engineering with a focus on novel semiconductor devices for microwave and mm-wave applications. He began investing in the precious metal space in 2003 and has done well following a value-oriented investment approach. Although he has never been employed in the finance/investment field professionally, he did complete level 3 of the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) program in 2011. Chris has a BS in physics from the California Institute of Technology and a Ph.D. in Electrical Computer Engineering from the University of California, Irvin

Stijn Schmitz welcomes Josh Young to the show. Josh Young is Chief Investment Officer & Founder, Bison Interests. The interview explores the current landscape of the global energy market, focusing on geopolitical risks, supply and demand dynamics, and investment opportunities in the oil and gas sector. Young provides a comprehensive analysis of potential geopolitical tensions, particularly surrounding Iran and the Middle East. He suggests that the current situation presents significant risks to global oil supply, with potential disruptions ranging from 1 to 20 million barrels per day. The geopolitical uncertainty is largely underappreciated by the market, creating potential opportunities for investors who understand these dynamics.

On the supply side, Josh highlights critical challenges in oil production. He notes that companies like Continental Resources are reducing drilling activities at current price levels, indicating that sustainable oil production may require prices in the $80-$90 range. The industry is experiencing a significant downcycle in both offshore and onshore exploration and development, with exploration success rates declining and existing reserves being depleted. Demand dynamics appear more robust than many analysts expect. Young argues that government stimulus, particularly in an election year, and emerging market growth could support oil consumption. He suggests that a potential economic slowdown might not necessarily reduce oil demand, as increased return-to-office trends could offset potential consumption reductions.

Regarding investment strategies, Young cautions against large integrated oil companies trading at high valuations. Instead, he recommends smaller producers with clean balance sheets, debt reduction potential, and attractive valuation metrics. He emphasizes the importance of companies that can pay down debt, buy back shares, and potentially offer high dividends. Young also discusses his Bison Insights substack, where he shares investment ideas in the energy sector. He believes the current market presents unique opportunities, drawing parallels to previous commodity cycles and highlighting the potential for significant returns in carefully selected energy investments.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:01:18 – Guest Welcome and Recap
00:03:01 – Silver Prediction Success
00:05:25 – Oil Geopolitical Risks
00:10:45 – Iran Production Impacts
00:16:34 – Risk Pricing Discussion
00:18:56 – China Oil Stockpiling
00:26:53 – Supply Cost Curve
00:30:51 – Underinvestment Trends
00:36:30 – Demand Surge Analysis
00:42:04 – US Consumer Strength
00:51:51 – Investment Pitfalls
00:57:10 – Debt Paydown Strategies
01:01:05 – Concluding Thoughts

Guest Links:
Substack: https://bisoninsights.info
X: https://x.com/BisonInsights
Website: https://bisoninterests.com

Joshua Young has been professionally investing in publicly traded oil and gas securities for nearly two decades, achieving benchmark outperformance as Bison’s CIO. Josh possesses a deep understanding of the E&P business model and operating environment, with notable experience as Chairman of Canadian E&P company RMP Energy (rebranded as Ironbridge Resources). Under Josh’s leadership, the company achieved a successful turnaround, outperforming peers and ultimately being acquired at a 78% premium. Josh is the author of numerous articles on oil & gas investments and is a frequent guest speaker at various energy industry conferences.

Prior to Bison, Josh began his career as a management consultant for Fortune 500 companies and private equity firms. He later worked as an investment analyst for a private equity fund and served as an energy investment analyst at a multi-billion-dollar single-family office, which was nominated as Institutional Investor’s Single Family Office of the Year in 2008. Josh holds a B.S. in Economics with honors from the University of Chicago.

Stijn Schmitz welcomes Clive Thompson to the show. Clive Thompson is Retired Wealth Manager and Swiss Banker and, Host of the ‘Clive Thompson’ YouTube Channel. The episode centers on the current state of precious metals markets, with a particular focus on silver and gold. Thompson highlights a critical shift in the silver market, where industrial demand now exceeds mine supply. He explains that this dynamic is creating significant pressure on the market, with industrial consumers becoming increasingly concerned about potential silver shortages. The gap between physical and paper silver prices has widened dramatically, indicating underlying market tensions and potential supply chain disruptions.

Regarding investment strategies, Thompson advocates for a measured approach to precious metals. He recommends investors gradually accumulate physical silver and gold as a form of insurance against potential financial system instability. He emphasizes that these assets should be viewed as a protective measure rather than a short-term speculation opportunity. The conversation also explores broader economic trends, including rising government debt, central bank behaviors, and potential future monetary systems. Thompson suggests that the increasing global debt burden could lead to significant financial transformations, potentially including the introduction of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) that might restrict financial freedoms.

On gold and mining stocks, Thompson sees significant potential. He explains that rising gold prices create leveraged profit opportunities for mining companies, with potential for substantial share price appreciation. He advises diversification within mining investments, recommending investors spread risk across different geographical regions and companies. Thompson’s insights are grounded in his extensive financial background, offering a nuanced perspective on precious metals as both an investment and a potential hedge against economic uncertainty. His approach is pragmatic, suggesting investors maintain a balanced portfolio while recognizing the potential volatility and systemic risks in the current financial landscape.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:01:03 – Silver Bull Run Fundamentals
00:02:15 – Supply Demand Gap Analysis
00:04:41 – Industrial Off-Take Agreements
00:06:07 – Silver Substitution Challenges
00:09:00 – Rising Investment Demand
00:10:39 – Physical Market Bifurcation
00:12:24 – COMEX Delivery Surge
00:18:48 – Future Price Potential
00:21:18 – Retail Investor Strategies
00:24:51 – Gold Portfolio Drivers
00:32:24 – Global Debt Unsustainability
00:34:08 – CBDC Rationing Scenarios
00:42:17 – Mining Stocks Leverage
00:51:39 – Concluding Thoughts

Guest Links:
Website: https://clivethompson.com/
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@clivethompson-jc9my/featured

Clive is a retired wealth manager and former managing director at UBP in Geneva, Switzerland.