Markets don’t just move on fundamentals—they move on themes, positioning, and policy. In this episode, I’m joined by Matt Tuttle, founder of Tuttle Capital Management, to break down his “HEAT” framework: Hedge, Edge, Asymmetry, and Themes—and how those four ideas shape his daily approach to risk and opportunity.

We discuss why Matt believes you should always be hedged, what real “edges” look like (and why many disappear once Wall Street markets them), how to structure trades for asymmetric payoffs, and how he’s thinking about 2026. Topics include the shift from AI creators to AI adopters, the importance of AI capex and the Fed as key pillars supporting the market, and how policy shocks can create both landmines and upside.

You can learn more about Matt's work at https://www.tuttlecap.com/ and check out his podcast here https://www.youtube.com/@TuttleCap.

🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse
📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist

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The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.

Jason Shapiro—featured in Unknown Market Wizards as “the contrarian”—joins me to unpack what actually creates longevity in trading: surviving drawdowns, learning from mistakes, and building a repeatable process built on risk-reward rather than prediction. We talk about how early wipeouts shaped his discipline, why “being right” is a trap, and why the best traders can lose more often than they win and still come out ahead.

Topics covered include: Jason’s three “blow-up” lessons and how they forged his process, why predicting markets is “worth zero” compared to managing risk, the casino/card-counting analogy for trading edges, how to define exits based on your entry thesis, the value of a trading journal for finding what works over time, and how positioning/participation—not price—can signal when a trade is truly crowded (including how he uses Commitment of Traders data).

Key takeaway: Sustainable trading isn’t about calling tops and bottoms—it’s about staying in the game. Define risk before you enter, only take trades where reward meaningfully outweighs risk, and let the market validate (or invalidate) your thesis quickly. Discipline plus a repeatable edge beats conviction every time.

You can learn more about Jason's work at https://www.crowdedmarketreport.com/.

🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse
📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist

👉 Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT
👉 Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social
👉 Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior
👉 Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior

The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.

Sector rotation doesn’t always show up clearly on the index chart—it often reveals itself underneath the surface. In the 83rd episode of the Market Misbehavior podcast, I’m joined by Julius de Kempenaer, founder of RRG Research and creator of the Relative Rotation Graph, to discuss the late-2025 change in market character and what relative strength analysis is signaling as markets hover near all-time highs. Recorded 12/15/25.

Topics covered include:
📈 how Julius uses Relative Rotation Graphs to identify sector rotation in real time
📈 why fading tech momentum alongside improving defensive sectors can be a cautionary signal
📈 how to read RRG “heading” and momentum shifts
📈 how to combine RRGs with traditional price charts to build a disciplined, top-down workflow from asset allocation to sector selection.

Key takeaway: Relative strength is most powerful when used as context, not in isolation. RRGs can highlight where leadership is improving or deteriorating, but confirmation from price and trend remains essential. When market leadership narrows or rotates toward defense, patience and discipline matter more than prediction.

Julius' blog on StockCharts: https://articles.stockcharts.com/author/julius-de-kempenaer/
Julius' videos on StockChartsTV: https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLyNJu-3PikrQwgy7LU70BXWzU2hKOYUtM
Learn more about Julius and his work: http://www.relativerotationgraphs.com/

🎓 Take Dave’s FREE course on behavioral investing: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/freecourse
📘 Check out Dave’s recommended reading list: https://www.marketmisbehavior.com/readinglist

👉 Follow Dave on X: https://x.com/DKellerCMT
👉 Follow Dave on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social
👉 Follow Dave on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/marketmisbehavior
👉 Follow Dave on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/marketmisbehavior

The content in this presentation should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any security. All information is intended for educational purposes only and in no way should be considered as investment advice.