Market Flash of June 23, 2026
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Market Flash of June 23, 2026
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In this episode:
• AI remains the dominant market driver, but breadth is finally expanding: roughly 75% of S&P 500 stocks have started to outperform the index itself — something we haven't seen on this scale for years — while the Magnificent Seven are essentially flat year-to-date. • The SpaceX IPO successfully tested investor appetite for AI-adjacent stories: shares surged 50% in the first three trading days, with four leveraged ETFs launched as early as day two, setting the stage for upcoming listings such as Anthropic and OpenAI. • The cost of AI tokens has fallen roughly 600 times between 2020 and 2026 — even faster than Moore's Law — creating a remarkable paradox: the cheaper AI becomes, the more it gets used and the more total corporate spending rises, shifting value away from models and toward infrastructure.
• The Middle East reshapes sector rotations: oil prices have fallen approximately 30% over the past month following the reopening of key shipping routes, helping the Euro Stoxx 50 break out to new yearly highs.
• Central banks turn hawkish: the ECB delivered its first rate hike since September 2023, while new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signalled the end of the forward guidance era, favouring a more discreet and deliberately less predictable approach to communication. • Gold corrects more than 20% from January highs despite rising inflation: a stronger dollar, higher real yields and net selling from emerging market central banks are the main culprits — though the sell-off may be opening an attractive entry point for patient investors. The key message is that markets are at a crossroads: seasonally weak summer months, stretched technical positioning and the growing need to monetise AI all counsel caution in the most crowded areas. Yet the broadening of market participation and ongoing sector rotations suggest that, beneath the surface, a new market narrative is already taking shape. For more, listen to the latest episode of the Market Flash podcast, hosted by Alberto Tocchio, Head of Global Equity and Thematics.
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