A steady but complicated start to 2026: inflation isn’t flaring, retail spending held up, and the Beige Book nudged higher while jobless claims stayed low. With a January interest rate cut likely off the table, markets are eyeing mid‑year moves, as the Fed navigates political noise and confidence in credit remains high—even as spreads sit near cycle tights. We dig into what that mix means for positioning right now, then tackle the power story—AI‑driven demand, a pricier generation mix, and grid bottlenecks—why electricity costs likely stay elevated and how it can ripple through portfolios.

Speakers:

Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment Strategy

George Mateyo, Chief Investment Officer

Rajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed Income

Michael Bove, Senior Equity Research Analyst

01:34 – CPI inflation steady, retail sales rebound, Beige Book edges higher, and jobless claims stay historically low.

05:13 – Inflation’s “catch up” effects, a K shaped consumer, and why headline labor reads can look stronger than they feel.

08:14 – No January rate cut; markets lean toward two cuts starting mid-year as political noise clouds the Fed backdrop.

11:21 – Credit spreads at/near tights: confidence vs. complacency and how a single default could ripple through high yield.

14:16 – Electricity prices rise amid AI driven demand, a costlier generation mix, and multiyear interconnection backlogs—no short-term fix.

17:10 – Closing notes, MLK Jr. Day reminder, and where to find ongoing insights and guidance.

Additional Resources

Read: Key Questions: What Do Investors and Consumers Need to Know About Rapidly Rising Electricity Prices?

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Happy New Year! In the first episode of 2026, we catch up on what we missed during the holiday break, and dig into the latest market and economic developments in the beginning of the year, including the Federal Reserve’s recent rate cuts, updated projections for GDP and inflation, and the impact of the government shutdown on economic data releases. The conversation covers labor market trends, productivity gains, and a notable geopolitical event in Venezuela, analyzing its implications for oil markets and global economics. We also explore expectations for future Fed actions, the evolving landscape of mortgage policy, and the importance of diversification in investment portfolios, offering listeners a clear and timely perspective on what to watch for in the year ahead.

Speakers:

Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment Strategy

George Mateyo, Chief Investment Officer

Rajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed Income

Stephen Hoedt, Head of Equities

01:41 – Recap of the Federal Reserve’s recent rate cuts, projections for 2026, and analysis of GDP growth, inflation trends, and labor market data following the government shutdown.

06:46 – Insights on the Venezuela situation, its effect on oil markets, and broader geopolitical implications for investors.

12:14 – Inflation trends, consumer behavior, and Fed rate cut expectations for 2026

15:56 – Analysis of government intervention in mortgage markets, treasury yields, and implications for fixed income investors.

17:38 – Our thoughts on portfolio management, diversification strategies, predictions for recession odds, earnings, AI trends, and closing thoughts for investors.

Additional Resources

Read: Key Questions: What Will Be the Economic Impact of the Political Events in Venezuela?

Rewatch: Key Wealth National Call: Managing Wealth in an Age of Disruption and Change

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In this week's episode, our experts discuss recent market activity, economic data delays due to the recent government shutdown, and the Federal Reserve’s latest rate cut. The Fed’s decision was marked by rare dissent, reflecting uncertainty about inflation and future policy direction, with only one rate cut projected for 2026. We analyze the implications for credit markets, the US dollar, and the evolving role of artificial intelligence in corporate strategy, noting shifts in tech stock performance and the importance of distinguishing winners and losers in the AI space. The conversation also draws parallels to past market bubbles, emphasizing the value of diversification and caution as the year ends. Be sure to review our 2026 Outlook: Managing Wealth in an Age of Massive Disruption and Profound Change to see what key themes we believe will most impact the economy in 2026.

Speakers:

Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment Strategy

Cynthia Honcharenko, Director of Fixed Income Portfolio Management

George Mateyo, Chief Investment Officer

Rajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed Income

Stephen Hoedt, Head of Equities

01:27 - Recent market activity is discussed, including delays in economic data due to a government shutdown, updates on unemployment claims, and the job openings report.

03:26 - Cindy Honcharenko summarizes the Fed’s decision to lower rates for the third time in 2025, the rare split vote among Committee members, and implications for inflation and the labor market.

08:10 - The panel analyzes the Fed’s outlook, credit spreads, risk appetite, and the importance of understanding why the Fed is cutting rates.

13:29 - Discussion in recent trends in the US dollar, commodity prices, and the impact on corporate America.

15:45 - The panel covers the impact of AI on stock performance, recent news from Oracle and Broadcom, and the evolving tech landscape.

Additional Resources

Read: 2026 Outlook: Managing Wealth in an Age of Massive Disruption and Profound Change

Rewatch: Key Wealth National Call: Managing Wealth in an Age of Disruption and Change

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On this week’s episode, a busy week of mixed economic signals—initial jobless claims hit a very low 191,000 while ADP reported a -32,000 decline in private payrolls—and a split economy where ISM Manufacturing remains in contraction as Services continue to expand. With a delayed September PCE inflation (the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge) arriving today, just before next week’s FOMC meeting, markets are leaning toward a 25 bp “risk management” cut as Treasury yields hover in a 4.05–4.15% range and auctions resume. Looking ahead to 2026, the team expects continued momentum without a recession, a need for discernment in AI rather than bubble fears, a potentially more dovish Fed posture amid leadership changes, a strong first half for equities, and a steady emphasis on diversification through debt concerns and midterm-election noise.

Speakers:

Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment Strategy

George Mateyo, Chief Investment Officer

Rajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed Income

Stephen Hoedt, Head of Equities

01:37 - Labor Market & Economy Split: Initial claims ~191,000 and below 225,000 for three weeks; BLS jobs report delayed to Dec 16; ADP shows -32,000 private payrolls—cooling, ISM Manufacturing remains in contraction (multi-year) while Services continue expanding—highlighting a bifurcated economy.

3:47 - Inflation & Fed setup: September PCE is the last read before the FOMC; markets price ~95% odds of a 25 bp cut, with dot‑plot dissents crucial for the 2026 rate path.

07:16 - Rates & Auctions: 10‑year Treasury trading ~4.05–4.15% with dip‑buying; auctions restart next week ($58 billion 3‑yr, $39 billion 10‑yr, $22 billion 30‑yr).

09:47 - 2026 Outlook Highlights: Momentum without recession; AI requires discernment (ecosystems forming, winners vs. losers); possible dovish tilt at the Fed amid leadership changes; equities set up for a strong first half with potential mid‑year inflation‑related volatility; stay diversified through debt/deficit concerns and midterm‑election uncertainty.

Additional Resources

Rewatch: Key Wealth National Call: Managing Wealth in an Age of Disruption and Change

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With the historic government shutdown behind us, we dig back into key economic data captured over the duration of the shutdown: highlights include a modest improvement in housing activity, favorable labor market indicators despite data being somewhat stale, and mixed signals from the Federal Reserve amid uncertainty over December rate cuts. Equity markets showed heightened volatility, with strong earnings failing to sustain momentum, suggesting potential consolidation through year-end. Fixed income markets remain highly sensitive to Fed commentary, reflecting divergent views among policymakers. We also take a walk down memory lane to our 2025 predictions from last year—accurate on most calls—and preview the themes we think will impact 2026: global shifts toward nationalism, AI-driven disruption, and structural changes in financial markets. Please join us on December 3 for our last National Call of the year, when we’ll dig into these topics and take questions from the audience.

Speakers:

Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment Strategy
George Mateyo, Chief Investment Officer

Stephen Hoedt, Head of Equities

Rajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed Income

01:53 – Current Market and Economic Updates. Housing market improvement with existing home sales. Labor market stability, with unemployment claims holding and payrolls showing growth. Federal Reserve uncertainty, as October FOMC minutes reveal mixed opinions on rate cuts. Corporate earnings reports, which were strong but met with negative market reactions

08:04 – Equity Market Volatility and Seasonal Trends. Equity markets experienced an “outside day” with sharp reversals despite strong earnings. After strong September–October rallies, November–December may see consolidation rather than a typical year-end rally

11:46 – Fed Policy and Fixed Income Market Outlook. Fixed income markets are highly sensitive to Fed signals amid data gaps from the government shutdown. Divergence among Fed members on rate cuts vs. a pause creates volatility.

15:11 – We look back at our predictions from last year for 2025 trends and assess how accurate they were, and look ahead to our predictions for 2026, which we’ll cover in more depth at our upcoming December 3 webinar (registration link below).

Additional Resources

Attend: Key Wealth National Call: Managing Wealth in an Age of Disruption and Change

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This week, we cover the historic end of U.S. penny production resulting from high manufacturing costs and obsolescence. Market updates focused on lingering uncertainty due to delayed economic data from the recent government shutdown, while Federal Reserve policy remains unclear, with rate cuts seen as a toss up ahead of December’s meeting. With holiday shopping well underway, we discuss consumer trends, noting resilience despite crosscurrents like tariffs and inflation, with strong performance from major retailers and signs of a “K-shaped” economy. Overall, our current outlook suggests cautious optimism for 2026, supported by fiscal and monetary tailwinds.

Speakers:

Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment Strategy, Key Wealth,

George Mateyo, Chief Investment Officer, Key Wealth

Rajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed Income, Key Wealth

Bradley Thomas, Managing Director of Equity Research, KeyBanc Capital Markets

00:23 –The U.S. Mint has stopped producing pennies after 232 years due to high manufacturing costs, sparking discussion on its economic implications and impact on transactions.

02:03 –The recent and historic 43-day government shutdown has finally ended. We discuss its impact, and the resulting delays in critical economic reports like unemployment claims, CPI, and retail sales, and its role in creating uncertainty across markets.

06:18 – We highlight uncertainty around Federal Reserve policy and changes, potential December rate cuts, the lack of clarity due to missing data, and upcoming leadership turnover, including the president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Raphael Bostic’s planned retirement in February and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s term as Fed Chair ending in 2026.

11:20 – Special guest Brad Thomas, Managing Director of Equity Research with KeyBanc Capital Markets, joins the podcast this week to discuss consumer resilience amid crosscurrents such as tariffs and inflation, noting strong performance from major retailers, bifurcation between affluent and lower-income consumers, and shifts in spending patterns toward home-related goods.

16:09 –Our experts examine how tariff increases could affect holiday shopping, with potential price pressures in categories like toys, and how retailers are managing these challenges.

19:02 –Rising delinquencies in credit cards and loans are rising concerns for lower-income consumers, while overall outlook remains cautiously optimistic thanks to anticipated fiscal and monetary stimulus supporting spending and investment opportunities.

Additional Resources

Read: Higher Education Changes in Recent Years

Prepare: Top 10 2025 Year-End Planning Strategies for Business Owners

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This week, we explore the economic impact of the ongoing government shutdown, now in its 38th day, and its effect on labor market data and investor sentiment. Our experts discuss alternative employment indicators, strong Q3 earnings, and the influence of AI on market performance. They also examine the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance on inflation and interest rate cuts amid data uncertainty. Finally, the conversation touches on the Supreme Court’s review of Trump-era tariffs and its potential implications for market volatility.

Speakers:

Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment Strategy

George Mateyo, Chief Investment Officer

Rajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed Income

Stephen Hoedt, Head of Equities

02:09 – We analyze available data to fill in the gaps left by unpublished reports due to the ongoing government shutdown. We discuss labor statistics around unemployment, layoffs and job growth and vacancies.

04:55 – The prolonged shutdown is dampening sentiment and creating uncertainty due to missing federal economic data.

07:47 – In equities, we highlight upward momentum in the stock market amid strong earnings reports, while cautioning about speculative froth and a market pullback.

11:45 – We explain the Fed’s dual mandate, inflation concerns, and how mixed signals are affecting bond yields and rate cut expectations.

16:31 – We consider the legal review of Trump-era tariffs and how a ruling could impact Treasury issuance and market volatility.

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Cynthia Honcharenko, Director of Fixed Income Portfolio Management, joins the podcast to deliver a report on this week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting; be sure to read her companion piece, “The Gentle Cut: Easing Without Euphoria” on our Weekly Investment Brief feed. Our discussion tracks how the equity and bond markets behaved leading up to, and following, the meeting, and what to expect going forward. We also touch on this week’s earnings reports from several big tech companies, and what positive trade talks between the United States and China might mean for the future.

Speakers:

Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment Strategy

Cynthia Honcharenko, Director of Fixed Income Portfolio Management

Rajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed Income

Stephen Hoedt, Head of Equities

01:30 – Expected reports on initial unemployment claims, GDP, and inflation were not published this week due to the ongoing government shutdown, which is on track to be the longest in history once it surpasses the 2018 record of 34 days.

03:20 – Coverage of this week’s FOMC meeting, including the 25 basis point cut to the federal funds rate, two diametric dissents, the themes and opinions driving that decision, and Chair Powell’s warning that another rate cut in December is far from guaranteed as we see signs of a weakening labor market, elevated inflation, and a lack of data to make informed decisions due to the government shutdown.

05:43 – In reaction to the FOMC meeting and Powell’s assertion that a December rate cut is less likely than previously expected, the markets experienced a bit of a reversal of recent gains that were driven by that expectation.

07:43 – We discuss the five candidates that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent revealed this week. They include three current and former Fed Governors, the current Director of the National Economic Council, and a BlackRock executive.

10:03 – Q3 earnings reports continue to send the stock market higher. The reports from this week’s big companies were Amazon and Alphabet, which were both positive, Apple, which underwhelming but not bad, and Meta and Microsoft, which were both somewhat negative.

12:25 – Positive news from trade talks between the United States and China might reduce the elevated sentiment of geopolitical risk that hit the markets in the first few months of the year on tariff threats, and which has been a question mark ever since.

14:58 – The fixed income market has seen some widening in credit spreads following the FOMC meeting, but generally positive credit conditions and future corporate bond issuance herald a robust November.

Additional Resources

Read: The Gentle Cut: Easing Without Euphoria – 10/29/2025 FOMC Update

Ask: Key Questions: Active ETFs or Mutual Funds: Which Belongs in Your Portfolio?

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