Season 4, Episode 4: Welcome back to Keeping it Real with Dr. Kuehl. This week Dr. Kuehl talks about the issue of how inaccurate economists can be when it comes to the economy. The big question is: Why??

ASA Chief Economist Dr. Chris Kuehl is back with his weekly economic update podcast. In Season 4, Episode 4 (8:31 in length), Dr. Kuehl talks about the big why on the inaccuracy when it comes to economists forecasting the economy.

• What were economists getting wrong in 2023?
• Why are the expectations so different than the outcome?
• Why do we see economic data in a negative position, but we always seem to escape it?
• How is the economy reacting??
• Rerouting due to the Red Sea… what does this have to do with the automotive sector??
• Labor supply issues… a chronic issue, but no action to deal with it?
• How do we keep these issues from reoccurring each year?
• How do we become more preventative? Why is this challenging for our industry?
• What will happen to the economy with new congress & political figures this year?
• Is there still enough health in the economy to continue to grow?

Ask Dr. Kuehl a Question

Have a question or topic for Chris Kuehl that you would like answered on this podcast? Email it to Bri Baresel at bbaresel@asa.net.

Season 4, Episode 5: Welcome back to Keeping it Real with Dr. Kuehl. This week Dr. Kuehl talks about inflation.

ASA Chief Economist Dr. Chris Kuehl is back with his weekly economic update podcast. In Season 4, Episode 5 (8:23 in length), Dr. Kuehl talks about the latest inflation news. What does it mean, and what does it not mean?

• Why were inflation numbers higher than expected?
• All kinds of inflation, what do they each mean? Core inflation? Headline inflation?
• What do the Fed’s pay attention to?
• What are the two assumptions when it comes to inflation?
• Where are PCE numbers at? Is this where the Fed wants it to be?
• What does the slight increase in inflation
• numbers this week really mean?
• The labor shortage – has it contributed at all?
• What scares the Fed??
• Will the Fed lower rates in the second half of the year? Even if these inflation numbers continue to rise??
• What affects ASA members the most with these reactions?

Ask Dr. Kuehl a Question

Have a question or topic for Chris Kuehl that you would like answered on this podcast? Email it to Bri Baresel at bbaresel@asa.net.

Season 4, Episode 6: Welcome back to Keeping it Real with Dr. Kuehl. This week Dr. Kuehl responded to a few membership questions.

ASA Chief Economist Dr. Chris Kuehl is back with his weekly economic update podcast. In Season 4, Episode 6 (5:58 in length), Dr. Kuehl answers some member questions on the topic of consumer trends, and the question of a recession in the second quarter.

• Are we seeing a return to a more frugal consumer?
• The consumer numbers for the start of 2024, how are they?
• Is the consumer slowing down? Are they aware of the debt they are carrying?
• What does the consumer look at? When is there a worry / impact / reaction?
• When does consumer spending start to slow down in the year?
• Will there be a recession in the second quarter?
• Are we doing anything that will suggest a recession at ALL this year?
• Are we still seeing all the drivers of the economy robust and strong?
• What are the four drivers / pillars of the economy?

Ask Dr. Kuehl a Question

Have a question or topic for Chris Kuehl that you would like answered on this podcast? Email it to Bri Baresel at bbaresel@asa.net.

Season 4, Episode 7: Welcome back to Keeping it Real with Dr. Kuehl. This week Dr. Kuehl responds to a membership question regarding manufacturing in 2024.

ASA Chief Economist Dr. Chris Kuehl is back with his weekly economic update podcast. In Season 4, Episode 7 (8:05 in length), Dr. Kuehl answers a question that refers to 2024 manufacturing, and if this is the year that we will recover?

• Has manufacturing ever stopped being great??
• What % of total manufacturing value in the world does the United States dominate?
• What country challenges the United States when it comes to manufacturing?
• What the United States produces is high quality, expensive, and high value. Will that change?
• How many people are actually working in manufacturing? What is the reality?
• Going into 2024, where is the shift when it comes to trade relations?
• Trade relationships – who have we always favored?
• The producer or the consumer?
• With more production coming into the United States, what are the pros and cons?

Ask Dr. Kuehl a Question

Have a question or topic for Chris Kuehl that you would like answered on this podcast? Email it to Bri Baresel at bbaresel@asa.net.

Season 4, Episode 8: Welcome back to Keeping it Real with Dr. Kuehl. This week Dr. Kuehl responded to a membership question regarding challenges we may face when it comes to construction in 2024.

ASA Chief Economist Dr. Chris Kuehl is back with his weekly economic update podcast. In Season 4, Episode 8 (8:08 in length), Dr. Kuehl answers a question that refers to the top four challenges for construction in 2024.

• Two pieces of good news, and two pieces of bad news when talking about construction in 2024.
• The big inhibition when it comes to construction is what?
• Construction projects are on hold… why?
• The consistent problem is the labor shortage, will it get better?
• Infrastructure money… is it being put to good use?
• When states received money from the Pandemic, what choices were made on what to do with it in terms of opportunity?
• What sectors have been growing most consistently in the last year?
• Do these sectors expect to continue to grow?
• What is the number one and two things that consumers spend on?
• Construction regionally… what pattern are we seeing?
• Projects are there, but liquidity is the problem, will this impact ASA members?

Ask Dr. Kuehl a Question

Have a question or topic for Chris Kuehl that you would like answered on this podcast? Email it to Bri Baresel at bbaresel@asa.net.

Season 4, Episode 9: Welcome back to Keeping it Real with Dr. Kuehl. This week Dr. Kuehl responded to a membership question regarding mortgage rates.

ASA Chief Economist Dr. Chris Kuehl is back with his weekly economic update podcast. In Season 4, Episode 9 (8:47 in length), Dr. Kuehl answers a question regarding mortgage rates and if we will see them ever come down or at least level out.

• Will we ever see 1-2% mortgage rates?
• Will rates even go back to where they were a few years back?
• What will be the upper end and what will be the drop down?
• Fundamentally, the Fed rate decisions are made how??
• All other rates are based on what? Is it automatic?
• The Feds conversation thus far on rate reduction has been what?
• What two things would sway the Fed away from rate reduction?
• Where does inflation still exist? Why is it hard to bring down?
• What is the BIS? Do they have an influence on rates?
• When will we see a rate reduction? Are we seeing any consensus?
• Is it realistic to see mortgage rates in the low 6%?

Ask Dr. Kuehl a Question

Have a question or topic for Chris Kuehl that you would like answered on this podcast? Email it to Bri Baresel at bbaresel@asa.net.

Season 4, Episode 10: Welcome back to Keeping it Real with Dr. Kuehl. This week Dr. Kuehl focused on fuel pricing.

ASA Chief Economist Dr. Chris Kuehl is back with his weekly economic update podcast. In Season 4, Episode 10 (8:09 in length), Dr. Kuehl answers a question regarding oils, gas, and fuels.

• Will oil prices per barrel level stay in the 70s and 80s?
• Is the United States at a place where we could take care of all our needs with our own production?
• A gallon of gas is half crude oil… what does that affect?
• The other half of fuel is production… what is the refinery cost?
• What is the biggest problem with the refinery capacity?
• What does the affect of investor hesitation have on gas prices?
• Will we still be 70% - 80% dependent on fossil fuel by 2070?
• The consumer is pushing in other directions… why?
• Prices will go up… but with a lot of variations.
• What fuel price is going to be the most volatile for ASA members
• Is there good news for crude oil demand and supply?

Ask Dr. Kuehl a Question

Have a question or topic for Chris Kuehl that you would like answered on this podcast? Email it to Bri Baresel at bbaresel@asa.net.

Season 4, Episode 11: Welcome back to Keeping it Real with Dr. Kuehl. This week Dr. Kuehl focused on the plumbing industry and what is the forecast for the coming year?

ASA Chief Economist Dr. Chris Kuehl is back with his weekly economic update podcast. In Season 4, Episode 11 (8:07 in length), Dr. Kuehl answers a question regarding the plumbing forecast for 2024.

• Plumbing is connected to a lot of other sectors… what is the biggest driver?
• What is a consideration that matters when looking at this forecast?
• What are the challenges?
• Recession… Is there anything pointing towards it?
• What other drivers will be significant when it comes to the plumbing sector?
• Why are certain regions worrying about water?
• Is this a sector where consumers get excited about innovations in plumbing?
• What are the predictions looking like for 2024?
• What can we expect from the plumbing numbers? Can we continue to see growth?

Ask Dr. Kuehl a Question

Have a question or topic for Chris Kuehl that you would like answered on this podcast? Email it to Bri Baresel at bbaresel@asa.net.