Rob Morris and Ruairí examine one of Rob’s longest-running predictions: that Saudi Arabia's government will not survive in its current form beyond 2030.

With Saudi Arabia facing renewed conflict with Yemen’s Houthis, missile and drone attacks, and mounting pressure on its ambitious economic transformation plans, is the kingdom approaching a crisis that even its vast oil wealth cannot overcome?

Rob explains why he believes the foundations of the Saudi system are far more fragile than they appear. From the limitations of Vision 2030 and the difficulties of diversifying away from oil to the global energy glut that could emerge if major conflicts subside, the discussion explores the economic pressures threatening the kingdom’s long-term stability.

The conversation also examines Saudi Arabia’s military vulnerabilities, its reliance on foreign allies, its investments in the technology sector, and the potential consequences of an AI bubble bursting. Could falling oil prices and a global economic downturn expose the weaknesses of the Saudi state? And if Mohammed bin Salman loses power, would the House of Saud survive the upheaval?

Rob revisits his original prediction, considers where his analysis has been wrong, and explains why he still believes the current Saudi system faces an uncertain future.

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