The Academy - https://www.skool.com/elite-property-academy/about
YouTube Channel - https://www.youtube.com/@GavinJGallagher
LEARN MORE - https://epa-learn-more.scoreapp.com/

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Banks lent more money for Irish homes between July and September than in any quarter since mid-2008.

In this episode we explore that headline in detail. We go back to 2007, to understand what it felt like when the banks were chasing customers, and why it wasn't the fall in value that finished people but running out of cash. Then we run today's Irish market through the five signals I've seen in three separate market crashes - Ireland, Spain and the US. Then I give you my honest scorecard, plus the three things that would change my mind.

The second half is more practical. I walk through exactly how I assess a deal in a slowing market using my ADP Lens framework, with a real worked example on a €300,000 commuter-town house: the true yield, the bank's numbers, and the stress test that turns a "good deal" into a "maybe". If you're starting out, or sitting on one or two properties wondering what's next, this is the episode to listen to with a notepad.

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In this episode:

• The 3 headlines that mattered last week: record mortgage drawdowns, prices cooling to 5.1%, and the ECB decision.
• What 2007 was really like from the inside, and the liquidity lesson.
• Future Shock: the April 2007 RTÉ documentary and the backlash that followed.
• The ADP Lens framework: Area, Deal and Personal
• The MENT resource audit: how to start when you're short on money.
• Did you spot the AI voice clone?

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CHAPTERS:

00:00 Lending is back at 2008 levels: is this 2007 again?
00:56 Prices still rising, but cooling
02:06 The ECB decision this week
02:52 Record mortgage drawdowns explained
04:03 Inside 2006 and 2007: when the banks chased me
05:42 Future Shock: the documentary that changed the mood
06:45 How it unravelled, and continuity bias
07:41 The liquidity lesson
08:44 Signal 1: Credit
10:05 Signal 2: Supply
11:09 Signal 3: Affordability
12:05 Signal 4: Transactions and stock
12:58 Signal 5: Events you can't control
14:00 The scorecard: why this isn't 2007
14:42 What would change my mind
16:34 What to do now
17:33 Elite Property Academy
17:58 How do you know if a deal is any good?
18:58 The ADP lens: Area
20:49 Deal: a worked example on a €300k house
23:45 The stress test: three bad days
26:08 Personal: is this deal right for you?
27:29 No deposit? The MENT audit
29:10 Why I built the Academy
30:04 Join the Elite Property Accelerator
30:26 Did you spot my AI voice clone?

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Gavin J Gallagher is a Dublin-based property investor with over 30 years' experience in Ireland and internationally. He has lived through the Irish, Spanish and US property crashes, lost a portfolio in 2008 and rebuilt, and now coaches investors through Elite Property Accelerator.

Need some help: https://workwithgavin.com

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Support the podcast: https://buymeacoffee.com/gavinjgallagher