Soybean Squeeze: Brazil's Bumper Crop Keeps US Farmers Under Pressure
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Soybean Squeeze: Brazil's Bumper Crop Keeps US Farmers Under Pressure
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This is your Daily Soybeans Price Tracker with Vanessa Clark podcast.
Hey everyone, welcome back to Daily Soybeans Price Tracker. I'm Vanessa Clark, and today we're diving into what's happening in the soybean market as we head into late January. Stick around because I've got some really important updates that could affect your wallet.
Let's start with where soybeans are trading right now. March soybean futures closed today at 10.53 per bushel, down about 4 and three quarters cents. If you've been following along, you know soybean prices have been on quite a roller coaster ride recently. They jumped above 11 dollars and 50 cents when the trade agreement was announced back in October, but they've since pulled back to around 10.56 per bushel today. That's pretty close to where prices were a year ago, which honestly isn't high enough to cover most farmers' costs right now.
So what's driving these moves? Well, there's actually some really significant news happening. China just announced that it has completed its purchase of 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans, fulfilling the commitment that was made during the late October trade truce. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed this just this week, and he's signaling that China remains committed to buying at least 25 million metric tons annually over the next three years starting in 2026. That sounds positive on the surface, but here's what's weighing on prices.
Brazil is absolutely crushing it this year. Their soybean harvest is ramping up early and production estimates have been raised to 179 point 28 million tons. That's record output, and it means there's going to be huge amounts of soybeans coming from South America in the coming months. The thing is, U.S. soybeans are currently about 40 to 60 cents per bushel more expensive than South American soybeans, so unless prices become more competitive, we might not see a ton of additional Chinese buying beyond what they've already committed to.
Add to that the uncertainties around ongoing trade talks and tariff policies, and you've got a market that's feeling pretty pressured right now. Cold weather in the Upper Midwest is also affecting truck traffic this week, which can impact the pace of grain movement.
Looking ahead, expect March soybean futures to trade in a range between 10 dollars 40 cents and 10 dollars 60 cents. The real story to watch over the next couple of months is going to be Brazil's massive supply hitting global markets and whether additional export demand materializes.
Thanks so much for tuning in to Daily Soybean Price Tracker. Be sure to subscribe so you don't miss our next episode. I'll be back tomorrow with more market insights. Until then, keep an eye on those prices.
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