2025 was anything but predictable for short-term rentals. After a surprisingly strong start, the second half of the year told a very different story — and the December data brings that contrast into sharp focus. In this episode of The STR Data Lab, AirDNA Chief Economist Jamie Lane is joined by Bram Gallagher to break down the final U.S. performance numbers and what they reveal about the state of the STR industry heading into 2026.

From weakening occupancy to long-awaited ADR growth finally outpacing inflation, the conversation unpacks why topline stability masked huge disparities beneath the surface. While national averages ended the year nearly flat, many operators experienced dramatic wins or losses depending on where they operate, who they serve, and how they’re positioned. The episode also explores how broader economic forces — cooling labor markets, mortgage-rate volatility, and a K-shaped economy — showed up clearly in STR performance.

Looking ahead, Jamie and Bram dig into pacing data for early 2026, uncovering encouraging signs for spring break and summer travel, especially in resort markets. They also discuss what easing mortgage conditions and stabilizing occupancy could mean for investors considering their next move. Whether you’re managing one property or a growing portfolio, this episode helps cut through the noise to understand what really drove performance — and what to watch next.

You don’t want to miss this episode!

Key Takeaways for STR Hosts & Operators

• 2025 was a tale of two halves: Strong performance early in the year gave way to declining occupancy in the back half, despite modest ADR gains.

• Averages hide extremes: While national occupancy finished flat, nearly half of major markets saw meaningful gains — and others saw steep declines.

• Luxury outperformed across the board: Higher-priced listings consistently captured stronger (or less negative) occupancy than budget properties, reinforcing the K-shaped economy.

• Resort markets led the way: Coastal and mountain destinations posted the strongest occupancy and ADR growth, while urban markets continued to struggle.

• Early 2026 signals are improving: Spring break and summer demand are pacing well, lead times are stabilizing, and easing mortgage conditions may unlock new investment opportunities

Year End Review:

https://www.airdna.co/blog/us-review-december-2025

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Connect with Jamie on social media

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jamiehlane/

Twitter: https://twitter.com/Jamie_Lane

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Connect with Scott on social media

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sagescott

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Connect with AirDNA on social media:

Instagram: https://instagram.com/airdna.co

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/airdna/

Twitter: https://twitter.com/airdna

TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@airdna.co

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Episode 166