Today's FOMC decision carries real weight: markets are pricing an 87% probability of a 25 basis point hike, the first since 2023, after the Fed held in July on a divided 9-3 vote. Core inflation is running at 3.3%, the labor market is still warm, and Bitcoin is sitting around $77-79K heading into the announcement.

Ansel Lindner (Bitcoin & Markets) joins us to break down what actually matters here: whether 25 bps is a real policy shift or mostly signaling, what a hike does to that 9-3 dissent, and why the conventional wisdom that rate hikes are automatically bad for Bitcoin might not hold up this time. If there's time, we also push back hard on the framing around the Iran conflict, including the economic angle Ansel may not expect: the same energy shock driving oil prices up sharply is a direct contributor to the inflation the Fed is now hiking to fight.

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