This analysis examines the global consequences of a hypothetical U.S. seizure of Greenland, focusing on how such an act would reshape strategic calculations in Russia and China. Building on recent warnings from the International CrisisGroup and Chatham House, the text argues that Greenland is not merely a territorial dispute but a stress test for the post-1945 international order. If Washington were to override Danish sovereignty, it would normalize coercive “gunboat diplomacy,” weaken NATO’s normative foundations, and hand Moscow and Beijing a powerful geopolitical narrative: that rules apply only until great powers decide otherwise. The analysis shows how Russia would exploit the precedent to justify future coercion in its neighborhood, while China would leverage it to undermine U.S. credibility globally and deepen divisions within Europe. Ultimately, the Greenland scenario reveals how alliances can fracture not through external attack, but through internal contradiction—turning deterrence into vulnerability and legality into a bargaining chip.

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