Current housing data suggests a move toward 5% could release pent-up demand. The setup: •162M+ Americans employed

•Five generations of buyers
•Inventory remains constrained
•Transaction volume has been rate-suppressed

If financing costs decline meaningfully, demand may re-engage.

How would your strategy change if that occurs?

Kevin Warsh has officially been nominated to replace Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chairman and the big question now is what this means for interest rates, mortgage rates, housing, and the broader economy.

In this episode, we cut through the political noise and focus on what actually matters for borrowers and investors.

I break down who Kevin Warsh is, his background at the Federal Reserve, and whether he is likely to lean more hawkish or dovish. More importantly, we discuss why the bond market reaction matters more than headlines and how the 10 year Treasury ultimately drives mortgage rates.

We also cover:

How jobs, inflation, and consumer spending will determine future rate cuts
Why small businesses are struggling despite strong economic data
The difference between Fed rate cuts and mortgage rate movements
Other policy levers that could bring mortgage rates down beyond the Fed
Why affordability not politics is the real issue heading into 2026

If you are a homebuyer, investor, homeowner, or self employed borrower, understanding how this leadership transition could impact rates is critical. Mortgage markets respond to data, confidence, and forward guidance not just announcements.

As we move deeper into 2026, the real drivers will be the labor market, consumer strength, inflation trends, and bond market belief. That is where the focus should be.

On the surface, the economy looks stable. The stock market is holding up, inflation appears under control, and official messaging says things are fine.

But when you talk directly with small business owners, especially in restaurants and hospitality, a very different reality emerges.

In this episode, I share real conversations with restaurant owners and operators and explain why this sector is already experiencing recession-like conditions, even if the headlines are not acknowledging it yet.

We discuss

Why most restaurants are barely breaking even or losing money
How rising labor, insurance, utilities, rent, and food costs destroyed margins
Why consumer spending is slowing even as prices remain high
How post-pandemic demand turned into a spending hangover
Why businesses can no longer raise prices without losing customers
What this reveals about small businesses beyond restaurants
Why this matters for housing, real estate, interest rates, and the broader economy
Why staying in neutral is risky and how rate cuts could change the outlook

Restaurant margins were always thin, and the combination of higher costs and softer demand has pushed many small businesses to the edge. This is not just a restaurant issue. It is a small business issue with broader economic consequences.

If you want to understand what is happening beneath the surface of the economy and why official narratives often miss early warning signs, this is an important conversation to hear.