Three hundred thousand tons of diesel (tons, not barrels) is what Trump says he extracted from Putin. The deal is easy to mock, but it’s worth understanding why it happened. Diesel is at record highs, and every European leader publicly condemning the move is privately relieved somebody finally told Zelenskyy to stop hitting Russian refineries. What the 5D-chess crowd misses is simpler: Ukraine and Iran are now the same war, because diesel trades globally and two kinetic conflicts are squeezing the same supply. From there, the harder question- what comes after Trump? America still wins gold, but it needed a Cameroonian center to beat a team of pudgy Serbs. The games are tighter now.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Welcome

(01:02) - Paris Market Fire

(02:27) - Trump Diesel Deal Readout

(03:55) - Energy War and Hormuz

(08:39) - Zelensky Leverage and Midterms

(21:14) - After Trump and Multipolarity

(37:53) - Limited Force Iran

(38:50) - Trump Strategy Document

(39:48) - Neocons Versus Deals

(42:24) - America Behind Curtain

(43:54) - Regime Change Values

(50:53) - After Trump Realism

(52:46) - Houthis Scenario Menu

(54:05) - Trump Houthi Deal

(56:58) - Regional Wildcards

(01:00:28) - Houthi Strategy Shift

(01:01:14) - US Reacts Not Leads

(01:02:16) - Voters And Israel Test

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Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Scott Bessent really said “trust the process.”

Bub, do you know the process? It's the Philadelphia 76ers deliberately being the worst team in basketball for half a decade. Pick a better sports metaphor. Anyway, here’s a conspiracy theory nobody on Wall Street will touch - - - - - The Fed isn’t hiking because of inflation - actual inflation is coming down. It’s hiking because economic agents have started expecting American incoherence as a permanent condition, and that’s the macroeconomic AIDS. They’re targeting oil prices. They’re targeting the war. Also: France might just be Illinois, and why Marine Le Pen in power is better for France than Marine Le Pen in opposition.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Show Intro

(00:31) - Hegseth Basketball Challenge

(02:09) - Trust the Process Joke

(07:25) - Bond Market Basics

(14:26) - Is the Economy Really Hot

(19:46) - Debt Service and Thin Ice

(25:54) - Fed Conspiracy Theory

(38:58) - Fed Tool Too Blunt

(39:37) - Inflation Hits Real Life

(40:13) - ECB vs Fed Mandates

(42:59) - Yield Curve Warning Signs

(45:32) - Gridlock and Market Risk

(46:59) - France Bonds and Le Pen

(01:16:06) - Middle East Shipping Shift

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Referenced in the Show:

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Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

--

Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

OpenAI burned $15 million in three days to beat Anthropic to a Millennium Prize problem. Nobody's quite sure whose work they trained on to do it. This week the cousins bring in their science cousin - physicist Dan Green, Marko's college roommate - to explain what AI is actually doing to math, and why the whole thing smells less like a real breakthrough and more like an elaborate flex.

And... when a company tells you that their product might end humanity, is that a warning or a pitch deck? Marko has thoughts. Plus: why the dangerous scenario isn't the robot, it's the idiot who trusts it.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Welcome Back and Guest Intro

(00:48) - Meet Dan the Science Cousin

(04:24) - AI Solves Big Math Problems

(09:22) - Backlash and Research Ethics

(16:03) - What AI Means for Science

(21:47) - Who Pays for Discovery

(34:23) - Terminator Talk and Real Risks

(45:18) - Corporations vs Paperclip AI

(46:58) - Chatbot Intel Near Miss

(49:10) - Anti Expert Government Risk

(51:59) - Future Robots and Human Agency

(58:59) - AI as Godlike Branding

(01:03:03) - Nuclear Energy Lessons

(01:11:06) - Why AI Writing Feels Wrong

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Referenced in the Show:

Dan Green - https://drgreen.physics.ucsd.edu/

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Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

--

Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro