Oil analyst Rory Johnston joins Jacob and Marko to break down why energy experts are alarmed by the Strait of Hormuz closure while markets remain at an all time high. Like wtf. Rory explains the 13 million barrel-per-day supply hole, the math on strategic reserves, and what timeline triggers a real price spike. The hosts probe whether Trump's leverage is shrinking faster than Iran's.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Welcome

(00:35) - Meet Rory Johnston

(01:30) - Canada and 51st State Banter

(04:12) - The Light on Fire Game

(07:52) - Where to Follow Rory

(09:09) - Why Hormuz Matters

(10:31) - Reroutes and Pipeline Capacity

(13:26) - Stocks SPR and Market Calm

(19:18) - When Do Shortages Hit

(27:59) - Red Sea and Houthi Risks

(31:34) - Iran Leverage and Taco Paradox

(35:25) - Hot Takes Round One America

(40:49) - China Buyer Strike Debate

(45:35) - Can We Just Build Pipelines

(47:05) - Time Horizon Leverage

(49:04) - Workarounds And Pipelines

(50:53) - Regime Change Off Table

(52:50) - Cash In Before Escalation

(59:46) - Work From Home Oil Demand

(01:02:46) - Russia And Cascade Risks

(01:09:24) - Price Scenarios Brent

(01:13:37) - Market Math Vs Jawboning

(01:22:48) - Mutual Assured Energy

(01:29:11) - Wrap Up And Thanks

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Referenced in the Show:

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Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

China isn't losing the energy war with America, it's not even flinching. Jacob and Marko break down why the "choke China's oil" thesis is economically illiterate, why the US and China actually want the same thing (cheap oil), and why Trump is more vulnerable to gasoline prices than Xi ever will be.

Also: Billy Bob Thornton, hairy forearms, and bananas.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Housekeeping

(01:00) - Weekend Sports Banter

(01:53) - Iran Headlines to Real Stakes

(03:31) - China Oil Imports Reality Check

(05:16) - Fungible Oil and Discount Myth

(11:02) - US Economy Needs Low Oil

(18:17) - China Reserves and EV Strategy

(22:46) - SPR Politics and Election Risk

(25:57) - China Energy Stats and Seaborne Risk

(31:26) - Trade Dependence and Supply Chains

(34:06) - Five D Chess and US as Supplier

(40:16) - Industrial Policy and Borg Metaphor

(45:36) - Tariffs Versus Competition

(47:41) - China EVs Copying Tesla

(49:57) - Education And Immigration Edge

(50:48) - Oil Sanctions Are Futile

(52:23) - UAE Dollar Swap Line

(54:52) - Japan China Tensions Rising

(59:31) - DC Trip Policy Chaos

(01:04:51) - Trump Court Politics

(01:09:44) - Military Adults Missing

(01:16:45) - Memes And Trade Value Tease

(01:20:04) - Closing Banter And Wrap

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Referenced in the Show:

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Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

--

Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Marko and Jacob dig into the Iran ceasefire - is it real, or theater? Marko argues Trump's bombing campaign materially set back Iran's nuclear program, making even a JCPOA-style deal a net win. They also cover the erosion of the petrodollar system, bid farewell to Viktor Orbán, and debate whether TMZ opening a DC bureau is civilization's final chapter.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Show Notes and Shoutouts

(00:56) - Hero Principal Story

(02:07) - Bingo Card Banter

(04:39) - Ceasefire and Strait Signals

(07:27) - Iranian Infighting and Markets

(12:30) - Nuclear Material Dilemma

(15:09) - Deescalation and Market Complacency

(22:28) - Is the Deal Superficial

(28:31) - Will Iran Change Behavior

(37:25) - Is Iran Really the Villain

(41:45) - Iran vs Saudi Hypocrisy Debate

(44:18) - Trump Is The Swamp

(44:43) - Pump The Brakes On Iran

(46:50) - Exit Middle East Vision

(48:32) - Terrorism And Threat Math

(50:23) - Opportunity Cost At Home

(52:05) - Petrodollar Explained

(55:51) - Inertia And Diversification

(58:04) - Reputation Versus Savings

(58:45) - Football Trade Metaphors

(01:02:20) - Falcons Pain And Fandom

(01:04:09) - Listener Coffee Shoutout

(01:06:27) - Orban Era Ends

(01:08:13) - Europe Rightward Shift

(01:10:51) - Millennial Politics Rising

(01:14:37) - TMZ Comes To DC

(01:19:45) - Democracy Versus Elites

(01:22:11) - Making Geopolitics Fun

(01:25:39) - Sponsors And Signoff

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Referenced in the Show:

--

Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

--

Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro