Marko is unbothered by ceasefire hand-wringing. He argues the Strait of Hormuz traffic was already recovering before any deal — because Iran is rationally cashing in through a tolling mechanism, not risking its leverage. Jacob frets the deal's fragile and spoilers lurk. Elsewhere: KMT's Beijing trip signals Taiwan's shifting mood, eight Senate seats are suddenly in play, Trump's economy approval is a catastrophic 31%, and both cousins have quietly become Claude fanboys.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Welcome

(00:38) - Listener Requests and Ethiopia Pivot

(02:13) - Coffee Gifts and Khat Banter

(04:06) - Ceasefire Headlines and Strait Tensions

(05:03) - Why Ceasefires Rarely Hold

(07:43) - Shipping Data and Iran Toll Booth

(14:14) - Oil Flow Math and Alternatives

(16:12) - Gulf States and Toll Compliance

(18:32) - Markets React and Leverage Limits

(22:41) - CapEx vs Flotilla and Spoilers

(28:10) - US vs Israel Strike Capacity

(31:15) - China Stakes and Supply Chains

(38:03) - Zooming Out What Changed Long Term

(39:05) - Energy Transit Logic

(40:26) - Ceasefire Skepticism

(41:40) - Missiles Not Blockades

(42:40) - Beirut Strikes Fallout

(43:22) - Ignoring Trump Noise

(44:49) - US Forces Reality Check

(47:58) - Oil Price Probabilities

(49:39) - Taiwan Opposition Goes China

(56:50) - Germany Negative Power Prices

(59:38) - Trump Cabinet Shakeups

(01:01:29) - Midterms Map In Play

(01:08:24) - Sports Jokes And AI Shift

(01:11:56) - Claude Changes Workflow

(01:14:54) - Sally And Signoff

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Referenced in the Show:

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Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

We recorded this pre-speech episode earlier today (April 1st), racing the clock before Trump's evening address. Marko seems to think that Trump will zag spectacularly - not taco, not escalate, but announce a NATO exit to distract from the Iran morass. Jacob thinks that there are two most likely scenarios following Trump's speech today. Behind Door A is a taco salad. Behind Door B is economic catastrophe. There might be a "third, secret door" - but you'll have to tune in to learn more :)

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Open

(00:53) - Pregame Iran Updates

(01:56) - Trump Speech Predictions

(02:56) - NATO Exit Distraction

(08:19) - Two Doors A Or B

(11:43) - Door C War But Oil

(16:09) - Escalation Odds And Markets

(20:51) - Tolling Debate Predictability

(24:39) - Israel Spoiler Scenarios

(35:48) - Gulf States And China Leverage

(37:46) - Spice Leverage Limits

(38:37) - Iran Hormuz Toll Scenario

(39:54) - Maritime Chokepoints Debate

(41:09) - Trump and Sea Power Shift

(43:40) - US Exit and Regional Equilibrium

(46:12) - Industrial Policy Reality Check

(49:25) - Russia Ukraine Energy Spillover

(50:46) - Power Is Fungible Argument

(54:30) - Who Guards Gulf After US

(59:41) - Multipolar Stability Case

(1:05:28) - Ukraine as Garrison State

(01:09:30) - Doom Gloom Endgame Risks

(01:17:23) - Wrap Up and Lakers

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Referenced in the Show:

--

Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

--

Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

The boys are back! It's only been like 13 days!! Chill!! Also - the Iran conflict isn't just a headline risk - it's a physical supply crisis hiding in plain sight. Despite oil sitting at $93, Marko argues the world is weeks away from a non-linear cliff: floating storage is depleting, Iranian and Russian sanctioned oil relief is a 30-day band-aid, and by mid-April, petrochemicals, LNG, semiconductors, and plastics all face cascading disruption.

His verdict: this resolves, or it goes Mad Max.

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Timestamps:

00:00 Welcome

01:32 Beer And Banter

05:05 Trump Pause And Troops

06:43 Oil Shock Timeline

08:41 Houthis And Red Sea

11:31 Shortages Beyond Oil

13:43 Troop Math Reality

18:06 War Outlook Shifts

24:38 Island Invasion Scenarios

28:50 Iran Constraints Debate

32:20 Market Mispricing Pain

34:12 China And Allies Fallout

35:09 China Leverage on Iran

36:55 Low Conviction Warnings

37:53 Middle East War Normalized

40:00 Tacit Rules of Engagement

42:19 Pushback and Pain Threshold

48:36 Markets Start to Crack

53:24 Munitions and Time Limits

54:55 Europe Energy Exposure

56:52 Europe Must Get Real

59:51 Germany Nuclear Wake Up

01:07:05 Multipolar Pragmatism

01:09:56 Europe Virtue Signaling

01:12:37 Summing Up the Fog

01:14:19 Two Week Ticking Clock

01:16:11 Constraint Framework Equilibrium

01:17:32 Israel Leverage And Lebanon

01:20:19 Age Of Revisionism

01:24:46 Realism And The 19th Century

01:27:55 Inequality And Soft Power

01:29:39 NBA Talk Starts Here

01:30:10 Relegation And 30 Teams

01:34:13 Baseball Overtakes Basketball

01:43:01 Wrap Up Mad Max Title

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Referenced in the Show:

--

Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

--

Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro