In this episode of Fighting with Numbers, Rob Moreno dives into UFC 324, analyzing key matchups including Alex Perez vs. Charles Johnson, Natalia Silva vs. Rose Namajunas, Sean O'Malley vs. Song Yadong, and the main event featuring Justin Gaethje vs. Paddy Pimblett. Utilizing a predictive model, Rob discusses the odds, statistics, and insights that guide his betting strategies, emphasizing the importance of data-driven decision-making in sports betting.

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Chapters

00:00 Introduction to UFC 324 and the Podcast

03:10 Fight Breakdown: Alex Perez vs. Charles Johnson

05:52 Fight Breakdown: Natalia Silva vs. Rose Namajunis

08:36 Co-Main Event: Sean O'Malley vs. Song Yedong

12:22 Main Event: Justin Gaethje vs. Patty Pimlet

18:42 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

It’s the final UFC event of the year, and we’re closing 2025 with a deep dive into UFC Vegas 112: Brandon Royval vs Manel Kape.

After a 6-4 week, the model sits at 176-101-15 (63.54%), locking in a profitable season no matter what happens on Saturday.

In this episode, we break down a few key fights with full data-driven analysis, matchup insights, betting angles, and projected outcomes.

Plus: a look back at the 2025 season, the evolution of the model, and what’s coming in 2026.

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🎙️ Catch me on VSiN’s First Strike throughout the year.

The UFC closes out the PPV era with a monster card at UFC 323, live from T-Mobile Arena — and we’re breaking down all the numbers that matter. Two championship fights headline the final mega-event of 2025: Alexandre Pantoja vs Joshua Van for the flyweight belt, and Merab Dvalishvili vs Petr Yan 2 for the bantamweight championship. With only two events left in the year and a long six-week offseason ahead, this is a crucial week for bettors, pick’em players, and anyone chasing season-long edges.

This episode features full analytical breakdowns from El Modelo, as the system enters the week 170-97-13 (63.67%). We dig into a few fun fights to wager on — including striking profiles, xR% advantages, grappling efficiency, finishing upside, and all the hidden stats that shape fight outcomes.

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One more card left after this — let’s finish the year strong.

UFC Qatar is here — and with only three events left in the year, it’s all about tightening the screws and finding the smartest possible spots. This week’s card is a morning start with a smaller batch of model predictions, but there are some sharp angles to attack, including live underdogs and stylistic matchups the numbers actually like.

In today’s episode, we break down three key fights — Hermansson vs Oralbai, Spivac vs Gaziev, and the main event between Arman Tsarukyan and Dan Hooker — with full statistical context, xR% comparisons, and model probabilities.

I’ll also talk briefly about my year-long pick’em contest grind, what the model saw last week, and how we’re approaching these final three events of the season.

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Let’s make the most of these early-morning edges. Enjoy UFC Qatar!

UFC 322 is one of the deepest cards of the entire year, with two massive title fights — Jack Della Maddalena vs Islam Makhachev for the welterweight belt, and Valentina Shevchenko vs Weili Zhang for the women’s flyweight championship.

This week, the model is coming off a 5–4 event and now sits at 159-92-12 on the year. With only five UFC events left on the calendar, we’re digging into the smartest angles on a card absolutely loaded with elite matchups.

In this episode of Fighting With Numbers, I break down five key fights using a blend of hard data, matchup nuances, and model projections. Including live underdog opportunities, dangerous favorite spots, and where the numbers diverge from the odds.

The UFC returns to the Apex for UFC Vegas 110 — and Rob’s breaking down the numbers!

After a few rough weeks for the model (now at 63.56%), it’s time to bounce back with a stat-driven look at this post-PPV card headlined by Steve Garcia vs David Onama.

Tune in for the usual mix of betting talk, model insights, and fight-week storylines, all in one data-powered episode.

Follow Rob on Twitter/X, Instagram, and YouTube: @TheRobbeo, and check out the written breakdowns at FightNumbers.substack.com.

For more UFC coverage, catch Rob every week on VSiN’s “First Strike” alongside Dave Ross, breaking down odds, props, and best bets for fight night.

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The UFC heads to Abu Dhabi for a massive double-title event at UFC 321: Tom Aspinall vs Ciryl Gane, and Fighting With Numbers is breaking it all down!

Rob Moreno (@TheRobbeo) dives deep into the data and betting angles across five key matchups — from Umar Nurmagomedov’s bounce-back fight to the vacant strawweight title clash between Mackenzie Dern and Virna Jandiroba. Plus, full analysis on Tom Aspinall vs Ciryl Gane as the heavyweight division looks to crown its true king.

📊 Model Record: 4-5 last week | 64.35% overall on the year

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If you enjoy the episode, hit like, subscribe, and drop a comment with your favorite bet of the week — let’s keep building this community of data-driven fight nerds!

The Fighting With Numbers podcast is back for UFC Vancouver! And this week, the model digs into a stat-stacked card headlined by Reinier de Ridder vs Brendan Allen.

Rob Moreno (@TheRobbeo) breaks down the key metrics, betting trends, and model grades for some featured matchups as we look for sharp angles and possible underdogs hiding in the data.

💥 Full breakdowns, xR% comparisons, and betting confidence grades.

📊 Read the full model report at FightNumbers.Substack.com

If you enjoy the episode, subscribe, rate, and drop a comment to support the show — and follow me on X and Instagram @TheRobbeo for fight-week updates.