Felix Nikolas Prehn: What Happens When Interest Costs Outrun Growth
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Felix Nikolas Prehn: What Happens When Interest Costs Outrun Growth
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I break down the growing signs that the US Treasury is leaning on the bond market while long-term yields keep rising anyway. Then I connect that bond math to real life: mortgage rates, inflation pressure tied to AI spending, and how concentrated the stock market has become.
• how Treasury yields act as the price of money for mortgages, loans, and pensions
• why foreign demand is fading and why the Fed is no longer the default buyer
• what Treasury buybacks signal and why shifting to short-term bills changes the risk
• Morgan Stanley’s R versus G framework and what happens when interest costs outrun growth
• how AI investment can push inflation higher through chips, hardware, and software pricing
• why AI-driven stock market concentration looks like a classic bubble setup
• three practical moves: map what you own, check companies for debt risk, stop assuming long bonds are safe
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