2026 is already shaping up to be another eventful one in global financial markets, particularly following a number of high profile geopolitical events in the first two weeks of the year. But what do we expect to be the main focus for investors this year?

Will the AI boom boost global growth? Or is the bubble ready to burst? And how will the new Fed chair impact the path of US interest rates? We also give our thoughts on the currencies that we think will over and underperform in the coming twelve months.

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The heavily anticipated UK Autumn Budget has come and gone, without causing too much in the way of alarm among market participants. Sterling and gilts actually rallied following the announcement, but what was behind this rather subdued reaction? And what might the budget mean for the UK economy in 2026?

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve appears almost certain to cut rates again at its December meeting, despite the lack of data releases due to the US government shutdown. We give our thoughts ahead of the meeting, and speculate as to the implications of Kevin Hassett’s potential appointment as the next chair of the FOMC.

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The US government shutdown continues to drag on like a traffic jam in New York at rush hour, with no apparent ending in sight. Macroeconomic reports out of the US have been subsequently scarcer than Wi-Fi in the desert, but could this lack of data impact the tone of Fed Chair Powell’s communications at this week’s FOMC meeting? And what might it mean for the path of US rates in 2026?

In the meantime, US President Trump and Chinese President Xi will be meeting on Thursday in an attempt to hash out a trade deal. But, will we see a deal, another delay or a collapse in the negotiations? We also cast an eye on the outlook for the Argentine peso following the strong support for President Milei at the weekend’s midterm elections.

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